Newt vs. the GOP

Off Topic Politics & World Issues
82

[quote]pushharder wrote:

[quote]Razorslim wrote:
The electability theory is based on the belief that the more moderate and independent the candidate is the more palatable he is to the voters. In Romney’s case he is trying to win the Republican primaries by claiming he has grown in his beliefs and has become more conservative while bashing the other candidates from the right without any real bona fide conservative credentials. So he is trying to be both the moderate/conservative candidate while using negative campaigning to lower the enthusiasm for the 2 more conservative candidates (Newt and Santorum)

The problem with this theory and tactic is that it assumes that the conservative base will be motivated to vote just to get rid of Obama, but this is not the case. Romney’s tactics are not sitting well with the conservatives and tea party. He is making enemies and will dampen enthusiasm come November. Also, if Romney gets the nomination he will undoubtedly move to the center further eroding conservative support. THis will make it extremely difficult to win the crucial swing states.

The only thing that is keeping Romney afloat right now is that Newt and Santorum are splitting the conservative vote. Romney is stuck in the 25%-35% range while the conservative candidates (I am excluding Paul) are polling at 53% (Iowa) and 57% (SC) with NH being the only state decisively for Romney. Florida polls are showing Romney @ 39%, Newt/Rick @ 43%

Newt’s problem is that he has been around so long and has staked so many positions on the center to right political sprectrum that he has presented so many juicy political targets not with standing his less than stellar personal record. The ethics charge (teaching a college class?!?) will be hung around his neck and will be difficult to overcome as it will take too much work for the average voter to research what actually happened during that time.
[/quote]
[/quote]

True story.

Shortly before becoming Speaker, Newt asked Bob Dole, “Why do people around here take an instant dislike to me?”
Dole answered, “Saves time.”

83

[quote]Razorslim wrote:

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
Slim:

I just wanted to add something to your analysis. (Thanks, by the way!)

I think everyone has to realize that when a member of Congress is brought up on some “ethical” charge that leads to action by one or both of the Governing bodies; the charge ITSELF may (or may not) be “serious” (in Washington terms); or anything that someone else may or may not have done.

It usually means that Member of the House and/or Senate has a) crossed some “line” and more importantly in Newt’s case b) angered and alienated a significant number of one, or both, bodies of Congress.

It is clear that Newt has done the latter.

Now I know that Zeb and Sloth have gone back and forth on this on several threads; but I want to understand what Conservatives are saying:

  1. Romney is no “better” than Obama in terms of Ideology? OR

  2. He is more “conservative” than the President; but he is pissing us off, so no way we are helping him get to the White House?

  3. Other?

I’m just not understanding the hardline being taken toward a man clearly “more conservative” than the President (but obviously “not conservative enough”?)

I’m not getting it.

Mufasa[/quote]

The ethics charge against Newt was clearly payback for taking control of the house and using his power as Speaker against the Democrats. Link to good article http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/article/what-really-happened-gingrich-ethics-case/336051

If Romney is the candidate, I will vote for him. But for me I believe he will generate the same level of enthusiasm that McCain dis 4 years ago. Will Romney win, probably, but he may not pull the volume of Republican votes needed to take back the Senate nor get a mandate.

The big war is between the establishment Republicans and the conservative tea party republicans. The establishment republicans are most concerned about making sure the money doesn’t stop flowing while the tea party side wants to stop the intergenerational theft and get our fiscal and monetary policy back under control.

Romney, and in a lesser manner Newt, is establishment and the establishment accepts the liberal premises but thinks they could just do it better, ie same program for 2% less budget. Though I think Newt is conservative, many of his ideas include a government “solution”.

So yes Romney would be better than Obama but he has a long way to go to convince me and other conservatives that he will do little more than nibble around the edges of Obama’s “fundamental transformation” and not lead the sweeping changes the we think need to be made to bring our country back to the constitutional standard.

Right now, Rick Santorum is the candidate who is best suited for this. It is not over and den’t let the media decide the race for us.
[/quote]

Slim:

Thanks again.

I don’t know. I’m personally wary of Santorum.

He is ALREADY becoming weary of a campaign than isn’t even 1/10th over (“He’d rather be home doing his taxes” is what he said the other day.) A Campaign is a fraction of the time and pressure that the Presidency will entail.

I also agree with Zeb in that a) he’s just not ready for “prime time” and b) he gets EASILY rattled (as shown at some “not-so-friendly” rallies). Again; the Presidency is a pressure cooker that compares to no other.

While I understand that he “Talks the talk”…I just don’t think that he is ready for the Presidency or even the VP slot.

Mufasa

84

Today: THEHERMANCAIN endorses Newt, while Palin goes on offensive against Romney

85

(The cash must me getting low in the 'ole Palin account…! I was wondering where she was!)

Newt continues to pick up endorsements here and there…with the exception of the “Big Guns” within the GOP. Again; this is working out to be one of the most interesting Political struggles in recent history: NOT Newt and the DEMS…but Newt and the GOP.

Anyone know if Bachmann has endorsed any of the remaining candidates?

Mufasa

86

It looks like Bachmann has not endorsed anyone…and according to her, is “giving it prayful consideration…”

Also; Newt has stated that he is “in”…Florida win or not…all the way to the Convention.

Mufasa

87

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
He is ALREADY becoming weary of a campaign than isn’t even 1/10th over (“He’d rather be home doing his taxes” is what he said the other day.) A Campaign is a fraction of the time and pressure that the Presidency will entail.[/quote]

He’s said he’d release his taxes. And since he does his own, well, yeah. But now he’s home for his daughter, more importantly.

[quote]I also agree with Zeb in that a) he’s just not ready for “prime time” and b) he gets EASILY rattled (as shown at some “not-so-friendly” rallies)[/quote].

Yes, because other candidates are willing to show up and talk to not-so-friendly audiences instead of the usual campaign picked echo chambers.

88

“…The ethics charge against Newt was clearly payback for taking control of the house and using his power as Speaker against the Democrats…”

That’s true, Slim…BUT…

Newt obviously pissed off a helluva’ lot of Republicans too…(and continues to do so).

Mufasa

89

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
“…The ethics charge against Newt was clearly payback for taking control of the house and using his power as Speaker against the Democrats…”

That’s true, Slim…BUT…

Newt obviously pissed off a helluva’ lot of Republicans too…(and continues to do so).

Mufasa[/quote]

That’s what Newt does best–Tick people off. Now think back to the past several Presidents. Remove your own political likes and dislikes about the men.

Start with Jimmy Carter, one of the biggest smiles of any President in history. He also had a very calm demeanor. Very likable character and America agreed. It took the likes of Ronald Reagan to take him out, and it was not a runaway election.

Ronald Reagan, well we all know that like him or not he was a real charming guy.

Geroge Bush (the first), not all that charming but head and shoulders more charismatic than his opponent back in 92’ Governor Dukakis.

Bill Clinton, the rascal. As a republican I obviously didn’t want him to win. But I couldn’t help but admire his charm and charisma. We sure knew that Bob Dole wasn’t going to beat him didn’t we?

George W. Bush, he was more personable one on one than in front of the camera. I had the opportunity to meet and talk with him and he was also very witty. Anyway, he faced two guys with less charisma than him Gore and Kerry.

And of course the brings us to Obama who rolled over the anti-charisma candidate John McCain.

Need I say more?

Newt Gingrich gets eaten alive by Obama.

Romney is the only man who can beat Obama.

The world is not the way you and I want it to be, it is what it is. You then deal with it or you walk around grumbling about how your ideal candidate never gets nominated.

Simple really.

91

[quote]pushharder wrote:
GHWB vs Dukakis was in '88 not '92.[/quote]

You are correct 1992 was the year that Clinton beat Bush. And why did he beat Bush? The same reason Bush beat Dukakis…

C H A R I S M A !

92

I’ve been watching the Sunday news talk shows and many of Obama’s surrogates are out attacking Romney. Now why do you think they’re attacking Romney and not Gingrich? Obviously, they’d rather run against Gingrich because they know they can beat him.

94

[quote]pushharder wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]pushharder wrote:
GHWB vs Dukakis was in '88 not '92.[/quote]

You are correct 1992 was the year that Clinton beat Bush. And why did he beat Bush? The same reason Bush beat Dukakis…

C H A R I S M A !

[/quote]

Not that C H A R I S M A isn’t important in an election but Reagan’s coattails and Dukakis’ totally pussified personality had everything to do with the '88 election results.
[/quote]

Reagan had coattails because of his charisma and personality is part of charisma.

95

Now Zeb and Push…

Does THIS guy look like he lacks charisma?

Does he look pussified?

(Note: This HAS to be on the “Top Ten List of Worst Advice Ever Given to a Presidential Candidate”! LOL!)

Mufasa

98

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
“…The ethics charge against Newt was clearly payback for taking control of the house and using his power as Speaker against the Democrats…”

That’s true, Slim…BUT…

Newt obviously pissed off a helluva’ lot of Republicans too…(and continues to do so).

Mufasa[/quote]

That’s what Newt does best–Tick people off. Now think back to the past several Presidents. Remove your own political likes and dislikes about the men.

Start with Jimmy Carter, one of the biggest smiles of any President in history. He also had a very calm demeanor. Very likable character and America agreed. It took the likes of Ronald Reagan to take him out, and it was not a runaway election.

Ronald Reagan, well we all know that like him or not he was a real charming guy.

Geroge Bush (the first), not all that charming but head and shoulders more charismatic than his opponent back in 92’ Governor Dukakis.

Bill Clinton, the rascal. As a republican I obviously didn’t want him to win. But I couldn’t help but admire his charm and charisma. We sure knew that Bob Dole wasn’t going to beat him didn’t we?

George W. Bush, he was more personable one on one than in front of the camera. I had the opportunity to meet and talk with him and he was also very witty. Anyway, he faced two guys with less charisma than him Gore and Kerry.

And of course the brings us to Obama who rolled over the anti-charisma candidate John McCain.

Need I say more?

Newt Gingrich gets eaten alive by Obama.

Romney is the only man who can beat Obama.

The world is not the way you and I want it to be, it is what it is. You then deal with it or you walk around grumbling about how your ideal candidate never gets nominated.

Simple really.[/quote]

Wait…what

“…Start with Jimmy Carter, one of the biggest smiles of any President in history. He also had a very calm demeanor. Very likable character and America agreed. It took the likes of Ronald Reagan to take him out, and it was not a runaway election…”

489 to 49 electoral vote is not a runaway election???

I really beg to differ on how much charisma Obama has. To me he is just an empty suit who is coached to read his teleprompter with the right passion and inflection. When he is off teleprompter he is just a stuttering bore.

As far as Romney / Gingrich - Gingrich is far more interesting and inspiring. Romney is stiff and comes off as repeating rehearsed lines while Newt comes off as speaking from his heart and from core convictions. I bet Romney put in about 10x the debate prep as Newt or Santorum put in.

99

NAPLES, Florida?Mitt Romney’s goal in Florida is no longer just winning.

After Gingrich Newt scored a surprise blow-out victory in South Carolina last week, the former Massachusetts governor not only unleashed a political broadside of epic proportions.

“It not about winning here anymore,” one Romney staffer told BuzzFeed. “It’s about destroying Gingrich ? and it’s working.”

I’m telling you folks, Romney has no chance of winning. None. Turnout will be looooow. There will be no coalescing under Romney. People are pissed. The bridges are burnt. The story won’t be about how Romney beat Obama (you can forget that right now). No, the story will be about how the GoP fractured. Establishment vs. Tea-party/grass roots.

100

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/01/28/ed_rollins_romneys_campaign_is_driving_conservatives_away.html

Ed Rollins: “Tom [Brokaw], himself, has basically said today he wished they’d pull it down and NBC has and the other night Romney made a very clear point, that if you’re not willing to make the attack yourself you shouldn’t do it. Obviously, hiding behind this story would be totally different if Brokaw did the story today and where it was.”

“And I just think there’s a lot, as Kirsten said, a lot you can talk about Newt in but at this point we are – and what Romney has to understand, the end of the campaign four years ago, I was Mike Huckabee’s chairman. Every single candidate in the race hated his guts. At this particular time, if he becomes the nominee of the party he’s going to need conservatives, he’s going to need them desperately and right now, the kind of campaign he’s running is driving conservatives away from him.”