[quote]scj119 wrote:
IMO Lowry/Valanciunas/Bargs is a playoff team in the East, plus if they get a good pick for Jose they have a nice core they can build on.[/quote]
You’ve made this call quite hastily. TWO of the players in their rotation are lottery picks. Valunciunas hasn’t even played an NBA game and you’re already declaring he’ll be a regular contributor?
[quote]scj119 wrote:
I don’t really like the “bottom out and hope you get lucky strategy”.[/quote]
I don’t like it either but I consider it the best option available for small and mid-market teams.
[quote]scj119 wrote:
You can’t get higher than 25 percent odds of the first overall pick, and even if you DO get lucky, you can’t even guarantee there will be a guy good enough to justify the strategy. It has a really low chance of working, and you can piss off your fans and drive attendance down for years trying to get it right.[/quote]
I know the odds are poor. From a revenue generating perspective you may be right. However that’s not something I’m concerned about. Although nowhere near as popular as hockey, basketball is still very popular relatively speaking. So no real worry of leaving town either.
[quote]scj119 wrote:
OKC got lucky with Durant. How many other teams have succeeded with this strategy? Think about recent champions, Heat (Free Agency), BOS (free agency/trades), Lakers (Kobe alone wasn’t enough, Pau/Bynum were trades/draft, Shaq wasn’t their draft pick), Spurs (draft).[/quote]
First off small sample size. Secondly, I am not saying you have to get every key piece from the draft/on draft day/early in their career while still raw, but only your main piece. Lets look at how each team that made the NBA Finals over the last 10 years how many acquired their best player through the draft or early in their careers:
2012 MIA (no) OKC (yes)
2011 MIA (no) DAL (yes)
2010 LAL (yes) BOS (N/A -Pearce?)
2009 LAL (yes) ORL (Yes)
2008 LAL (yes) BOS (N/A)
2007 SAS (yes) CLE (yes)
2006 DAL (yes) MIA (yes)
2005 SAS (yes) DET (no)
2004 LAL (yes) DET (no)
2003 SAS (yes) NJN (no)
13 of those teams acquired their star player through the draft/early in their careers while still raw compared to 5 who didn’t. I didn’t count the BOS years.
[quote]scj119 wrote:
IMO the better strategy is to put a good core together and hope you get lucky in the draft, so that once your lucky hit is good, you already have the surrounding cast in place. You can bottom out and get a number 1 pick but then you are just adding one good player to the worst team in the NBA (look at the Wizards). By the time you have the right TEAM he’ll be a free agent.[/quote]
It doesn’t matter if he becomes a free agent because star players generally resign with the team that drafted them the first chance they have to hit free agency. So long as you can build a good core around your stars within hi first 5-6 years in the NBA, you’re okay.
Rose
Durant
Kobe
Howard
Melo
Wade
Lebron
Bosh
Amare
Deron Williams
CP3
Shall I go on?