MSN: An Epic Bear Market Is Coming

Off Topic Politics & World Issues
21

[quote]Toohard wrote:

I don’t live in the USA, but I’ve heard a lot of people I personally know say the same as you just did. Taxes go up → it is a shared pain. They look to hire people to do less hours per week etc.[/quote]

If you think about it the far left must know that this is how the game is played. Yet, they continue to peddle class warfare to the gullible.

Here’s the bottom line. If you do not have saleable skill or education or you are not a really hard worker you will be at the bottom of the economic pack. And there isn’t a politician who has ever lived, including President Obama himself who is going to be able to change that. And the reason is the capitalist system is stronger than any one politician.

And as long we can keep at least one house of Congress republican Obama will not be able to pull another “obamacare.”

So, those of us who have worked hard and long to build what we have will continue to keep it and pass the added costs of having a left wing President onto the very people who voted for him.

I guess it all works out in the end.

22

[quote]pittbulll wrote:

[quote]MaximusB wrote:
Any guesses on the housing market recovery ?
[/quote]

I am personally betting on housing :slight_smile:

[/quote]

x2 big time. Or more people start renting.

I win either way

23

[quote]countingbeans wrote:

[quote]JEATON wrote:

[quote]Jewbacca wrote:
Non-US based equities will do fine, as will commods.

Inflation is likely, so corporate debt is dreadful to hold.[/quote]

If you have time, would you please expand upon this.

I personally am mystified at this market. There seems to be no fundamentals to support it other than the fed’s ever continuing dilution. [/quote]

LOL @ mystified. Explains it perfect. My mind tells me Jewbacca is 100% correct, but I remember reading as late as early fall that bonds were so hot people couldn’t issue them fast enough.

5 years to actually start making money again, but in all reality, there probably isn’t even any real gains in there with the inflation coming. [/quote]

Corporate debt is usually terrible to hold in the long run anyway. Actually, it is terrible to hold almost always. I’d rather put money in TIPS or treasuries if I’m going to hold debt, and ETFs at that.

24

[quote]jj-dude wrote:

[quote]jj-dude wrote:
For headhunter you need a better Chicken Little:

[/quote]

PS. “On a calm sea, every captain is a good one” – Roman Proverb

The market is determined by statistical forces with several hundred million actors. Virtually nobody gets it right. If the market is doing consistently poorly or well, then anybody can sound like a pro. On the other hand, people do make statements and eventually some of them – by sheer dumb coincidence – turn out right. These people are the next round of pundits, until what they say fails. Don’t believe any such “experts”.

I haven’t met any economic experts who I thought had a methodology that could explain their subject matter, i.e., my considered opinion as a career scientist is that economics really is just smoke and mirrors. Basing national policy on it is idiocy.

Best economic advice: Learn basic Math ('specially subtraction, which optimists like to short change), then don’t fuck up.

– jj[/quote]

…hmmm. You basically accuse alchemy of failing (which it did) and say that chemistry is just smoke and mirrors. The mistake is confusing alchemy and chemistry. There is more to economics than predicting the future, we’re not soothsayers.

25

[quote]Toohard wrote:
You know… in the beginning of 20th century if someone came to you and told you all the wars and crises we will have would you have invested a single penny?[/quote]

No, I’d still invest. And, in all likelihood I’d make money.

26

[quote]jj-dude wrote:

[quote]jj-dude wrote:
For headhunter you need a better Chicken Little:

[/quote]

PS. “On a calm sea, every captain is a good one” – Roman Proverb

The market is determined by statistical forces with several hundred million actors. Virtually nobody gets it right. If the market is doing consistently poorly or well, then anybody can sound like a pro. On the other hand, people do make statements and eventually some of them – by sheer dumb coincidence – turn out right. These people are the next round of pundits, until what they say fails. Don’t believe any such “experts”.

I haven’t met any economic experts who I thought had a methodology that could explain their subject matter, i.e., my considered opinion as a career scientist is that economics really is just smoke and mirrors. Basing national policy on it is idiocy.

Best economic advice: Learn basic Math ('specially subtraction, which optimists like to short change), then don’t fuck up.

– jj[/quote]

"In the latest filing for Buffettâ??s holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has been drastically reducing his exposure to stocks that depend on consumer purchasing habits. Berkshire sold roughly 19 million shares of Johnson & Johnson, and reduced his overall stake in â??consumer product stocksâ?? by 21%. Berkshire Hathaway also sold its entire stake in California-based computer parts supplier Intel.

With 70% of the U.S. economy dependent on consumer spending, Buffettâ??s apparent lack of faith in these companiesâ?? future prospects is worrisome.

Unfortunately Buffett isnâ??t alone.

Fellow billionaire John Paulson, who made a fortune betting on the subprime mortgage meltdown, is clearing out of U.S. stocks too. During the second quarter of the year, Paulsonâ??s hedge fund, Paulson & Co., dumped 14 million shares of JPMorgan Chase. The fund also dumped its entire position in discount retailer Family Dollar and consumer-goods maker Sara Lee.

Finally, billionaire George Soros recently sold nearly all of his bank stocks, including shares of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs. Between the three banks, Soros sold more than a million shares.

Read Latest Breaking News from Newsmax.com http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNews/billionaires-dump-economist-stock/2012/08/29/id/450265?PROMO_CODE=110D8-1&utm_source=taboola#ixzz2HlW6fiYa
Urgent: Should Obamacare Be Repealed? Vote Here Now!

27

LOL @ mystified. Explains it perfect. My mind tells me Jewbacca is 100% correct, but I remember reading as late as early fall that bonds were so hot people couldn’t issue them fast enough.

5 years to actually start making money again, but in all reality, there probably isn’t even any real gains in there with the inflation coming. [/quote]

Corporate debt is usually terrible to hold in the long run anyway. Actually, it is terrible to hold almost always. I’d rather put money in TIPS or treasuries if I’m going to hold debt, and ETFs at that.[/quote]

So you would rather hold treasuries, which is fed inflated to begin with? Watch the bid/cover ratios come down on the 10yr by 2014, and you’ll want to be positioning for a short on the 5/10/30yr.

I’m with you on ETFs, but only for inflation protection like domestic market or commodity ETFs, as I have the feeling that money velocity (or money demand) will pick up in next two years.