[quote]jtrinsey wrote:
Burnett throws hard (but so does Vicente Padilla and we see how that worked out for him) but his fastball gets hit. Interestingly enough, there are people who actually track this stuff. You simply take every pitch, record the pitch type, velocity and location, and then the result of the pitch. Strikes and outs are good, balls aren’t good, walks and singles are bad and extra base hits are very bad.
The top 15 fastballs in the league this year were:
Carpenter, Kershaw, Wolf, Lilly, Cain, Greinke, Pineiro, Josh Johnson, Baker, Verlander, Hernandez, Lee, Vazquez, Correia, Santana.
Some of those guys (Pineiro, Correia) are probably 1-year wonders, some (Kershaw, Johnson, Baker) are young guys who may or may not be able to sustain that success, but the majority of that list should be no surprise. Of course, that list is only for this year; if you looked at a 3-year average, you would see guys like Lincecum, Halladay, Zambrano, etc., who were just outside the top-15 this year rise up. If you added in cutters than guys like Lester would be on there as well.
Burnett has been a very similar pitcher for most of the last 5 years. His velocity is actually down a little bit from his peak with the Marlins and his fastball is less effective. His fastball is not terrible, but it’s only above-average at best. He relies more on the curveball now than before and that is the pitch he gets out with. His curveball is devastating and has been one of the best in the game for years. But, it’s a tough argument to say his fastball is even in the top 20 amongst starting pitchers. I guess you could make an argument that his fastball is what causes his curveball to be good and you can’t separate the two… but I would tend to disagree.
Burnett has indeed shown he has the head to pitch in the playoffs, but then again, Hamels was the MVP last year. However, I agree that he does look tired and I actually think he is very overrated. You could certainly argue that Burnett has the best “stuff” left, but he’s definitely not as good as CC or Lee as a total pitcher. But yeah, I think he’s a little better than Hamels.
I surely did think the Dodger’s bullpen would outperform the Phillies this postseason. Mostly because the Dodger’s pen was pretty much the best this season and the Phillies were among the worst. Usually, players who are good in the regular season are good in the post-season and those who are bad in the regular season are bad in the post-season. However, over only a few games, anything can happen. If you really thought the Phillies pen was better than the Dodgers, then you are either extremely lucky or smarter than almost everybody else who follows baseball.
I thought the last sentence of mine indicated that I was worried about Hamels. I actually think he’s a pretty terrible matchup against the Yankees. [/quote]
Padilla had 2 great starts in the post season and he got lit up against a great lineup in his last start. What’s your point? I’m fully aware that there’s more to pitching than the velocity of a fastball and the tilt of breaking pitches.
Burnett is not going to dominate a good lineup every time he pitches. He has the potential to though.
And as far as that graph goes. Baker and Wolf? Come on. Just because Burnett doesn’t use his fastball as his outpitch like many other power pitchers do doesn’t mean that most of the other guys on that list wouldnt trade their fastball for Burnett’s.
It’s not really a big deal. This is far too subjective for two people to agree. That graph does not present any sort of objectivity when you have like guys like Randy Wolf, Scott Baker and Ted Lilly making the ‘top 15 fastballs’ in baseball list.
Lee and Sabathia are much better than Burnett. No question about that. But this postseason (and for most of the second half of the regular season) Hamels has not come anywhere close to his “MVP” form. Sure, he has the potential to have a nice game against the Yankees (if they win) but if he is tired than this week coming up is not enough rest.
And no I didn’t think the Phillies had an edge over the Dogder’s pen, and I still don’t. On paper the Dodgers still have a top notch pen. On paper Burnett’s fastball may not be top 30.
And (not directed at you) I’m tired of hearing that Lidge and Mo are the only two not to blow a save. Lidge didn’t pitch in every save opportunity.
I am predicting now that Sabathia will hit a home run in the World Series, should they make it. 
