[quote]therajraj wrote:
Nate Silver, the guy who predicted the US election with surgical accuracy use to be a baseball prospect evaluator and sabermetrician.
Didn’t know that.[/quote]
There’s a lot you don’t know.
Something buggin’ ya today Art?
- Johnson
- Morrow
- Buehrle
- Romero
- Happ
SS Reyes
CF Rasmus
RF Bautista
1B Encarnacion
3B Lawrie
C Arenicbia
2B Bonifacio
LF Davis/Sierra/Gose
DH Lind
Just rosterbating a little… so damn turned on right now.
I cant remember the last time the Jays had a prototypical lead off man in Reyes. Probably will have to go back to Ricky Henderson in 1993.
People are really wanting Melky to fill the LF gap.
God I fucking hope not.
Jays odds to win WS went from 100-1 to 15-1
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
[quote]johnman18 wrote:
[quote]therajraj wrote:
The Red Sox are a mess
The O’s will be a 1 hit wonder.
[/quote]
True and True[/quote]
Nice avatar. What happened, you lose a bet or something?[/quote]
Something like that hahah. Is it New Year’s yet?
[quote]therajraj wrote:
Something buggin’ ya today Art?
- Johnson
- Morrow
- Buehrle
- Romero
- Happ
SS Reyes
CF Rasmus
RF Bautista
1B Encarnacion
3B Lawrie
C Arenicbia
2B Bonifacio
LF Davis/Sierra/Gose
DH Lind
Just rosterbating a little… so damn turned on right now.
I cant remember the last time the Jays had a prototypical lead off man in Reyes. Probably will have to go back to Ricky Henderson in 1993.[/quote]
I love how you’ve been so obsessed with me that you’ve been searching through several years of my posting history.
Switch Bonifacio and Rasmus.
Meh, I was curious if you always had an abrasive posting style. Read your first few posts on this site.
Art has to be a first name though, right Artie?
Cabrera and Posey MVP, both well deserving.
Fuck me… Jays just signed Melky fucking Cabrera 2years/16M
I’m losing my shit… $52M increase in payroll in 2013.
Holy Christ on the cross…
Lets hope Melkys BABIP explodes playing on turf. He hits a lotta liners and ground balls
For these threads, Melky to TOR seems either poetic or ironical or some combo of both
Also this - via Chris Harris at ESPN.com
- [u]Why I’m glad I don’t cover baseball.[/u] One great thing about fantasy football (and all fantasy sports) is at the beginning of the season, everybody’s got a chance. And given how frequently franchises go from rags to riches in pro football, I’d argue that holds true for most NFL teams, as well. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays/Marlins trade is a shammockery for so many reasons, the most outrageous of which is the false pretenses under which the Miami Marlins opened their new ballpark. But for me, the worst part is the extent to which a deal like this reflects how little baseball “gets it.” With no negative implications for dumping or hoarding players other than some vague, far-off notion of comeuppance that never arrives thanks to all that sweet, sweet TV revenue, baseball is an antediluvian joke. If NFL teams could dump salary whenever they felt like it, a dozen probably would, and we’d get the “rich-man, poor-man” life of MLB, where millions of fans begin every season knowing their squads have no chance. Imagine the fire sale that the Kansas City Chiefs might hold, which would turn the fantasy world upside down. Jamaal Charles is making $4.83 million this year. Why wouldn’t the Chiefs just dump him? They aren’t winning with him, why pay all that money? Tamba Hali ($13 million), Dwayne Bowe ($9.5 million), Brandon Flowers ($8 million) ? heck, they’d all look swell in Patriots unis, right? The Chiefs are 1-8 and have the highest payroll in the league. Under baseball’s rules, they’d trade away their big contracts, relegating themselves to five years of winlessness. (Maybe they could get Ryan Mallett back from the Pats.) Because the NFL doesn’t let teams do this, there’s hope in most cities. I know, you’ll tell me the Oakland Athletics made this year’s playoffs with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball. But don’t insult my (admittedly challenged) intelligence by claiming a lack of money doesn’t almost always translate into a lack of hope in MLB. In my opinion, in the modern sports-fan landscape, that’s just not acceptable anymore. Among all the crazy variables I deal with trying to predict NFL player outcomes, I’m endlessly thankful that calculating the likelihood of salary dumps isn’t one of them.
[quote]chillain wrote:
For these threads, Melky to TOR seems either poetic or ironical or some combo of both
[/quote]
Both. He’ll probably be pretty decent out there but no one will notice. The Blue Jays seem to be putting quite the offense together. Too bad the game is all about pitching and they don’t have much of it.
I think the Romero of last year is more typical of what we’ll see from him than his 2011 season. Drabek has a good arm but I wasn’t impressed with his overall skill set the few times I saw him pitch. Morrow has been up and down his whole career, mostly down. Josh Johnson could be the ace of this staff, but I always worry about a guy who’s already missed about two full years worth of starts this early into his career. I like Beurhle but I also don’t think a guy with his pitching-style is going to do well on that fast turf up in Toronto, and he isn’t getting any younger. Plus, he’ll probably be distracted by the fact that his dog isn’t allowed anywhere near Toronto since that backwards part of the world has banned American Staffordshire terriers.
That being said, the rest of the division has been extremely weak the last two or three years and is only getting weaker with the Yankees and Red Sox not expected to be big spenders this offseason. Tampa always has a surplus of talent, but other than them I don’t see a legitimate World Series contender in the division. Baltimore will struggle to finish above .500 next year if they don’t get some quality pitching. This could be the Jays’ window. But with the way they’ve taken on salary this offseason I wonder what will happen if they come out and suck cock for the first half of the year and are buried in the standings by the end of July. It wouldn’t shock me to see a lot of the quality guys they’ve landed thus far go right back onto the trading block.
[quote]chillain wrote:
For these threads, Melky to TOR seems either poetic or ironical or some combo of both
[/quote]
I know right?
It comes down to whether you believe in second chances or not. A lot of the players on the Jays are second chance type guys, usually for reasons relating to mental makeup.
Our GM believes in giving 2nd chances but not 3rds (see Yunel Escobar and his eye black slur).
In Melky, he should not have been invited back by the Giants since he had tainted that very season while also apparently blowing off his teammates after it happened.
At the end of the day though I believe Melky realizes he’s young enough to rebuild value and still get that huge contract in 2 years. For that reason I’m sure he will be on his best behaviour.
[quote]chillain wrote:
Also this - via Chris Harris at ESPN.com
- [u]Why I’m glad I don’t cover baseball.[/u] One great thing about fantasy football (and all fantasy sports) is at the beginning of the season, everybody’s got a chance. And given how frequently franchises go from rags to riches in pro football, I’d argue that holds true for most NFL teams, as well. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays/Marlins trade is a shammockery for so many reasons, the most outrageous of which is the false pretenses under which the Miami Marlins opened their new ballpark. But for me, the worst part is the extent to which a deal like this reflects how little baseball “gets it.” With no negative implications for dumping or hoarding players other than some vague, far-off notion of comeuppance that never arrives thanks to all that sweet, sweet TV revenue, baseball is an antediluvian joke. If NFL teams could dump salary whenever they felt like it, a dozen probably would, and we’d get the “rich-man, poor-man” life of MLB, where millions of fans begin every season knowing their squads have no chance. Imagine the fire sale that the Kansas City Chiefs might hold, which would turn the fantasy world upside down. Jamaal Charles is making $4.83 million this year. Why wouldn’t the Chiefs just dump him? They aren’t winning with him, why pay all that money? Tamba Hali ($13 million), Dwayne Bowe ($9.5 million), Brandon Flowers ($8 million) ? heck, they’d all look swell in Patriots unis, right? The Chiefs are 1-8 and have the highest payroll in the league. Under baseball’s rules, they’d trade away their big contracts, relegating themselves to five years of winlessness. (Maybe they could get Ryan Mallett back from the Pats.) Because the NFL doesn’t let teams do this, there’s hope in most cities. I know, you’ll tell me the Oakland Athletics made this year’s playoffs with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball. But don’t insult my (admittedly challenged) intelligence by claiming a lack of money doesn’t almost always translate into a lack of hope in MLB. In my opinion, in the modern sports-fan landscape, that’s just not acceptable anymore. Among all the crazy variables I deal with trying to predict NFL player outcomes, I’m endlessly thankful that calculating the likelihood of salary dumps isn’t one of them.[/quote]
You lost me with all the NFL references. BTW did you know NFL experts predict outcomes correctly 36% of the time while casual fans 33% of the time.
Also one thing to understand is baseball makes huge $ from rivalries that are largely sustained due to these payroll inequalities.
Think: Red Sox-Yankee
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
I think the Romero of last year is more typical of what we’ll see from him than his 2011 season.[/quote]
You know he pitched hurt all year and had surgery to clean up his elbow right? Based on his career trajectory he’ll most likely be a mid to high 3 ERA pitcher.
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
Drabek has a good arm but I wasn’t impressed with his overall skill set the few times I saw him pitch. Morrow has been up and down his whole career, mostly down.[/quote]
Drabek had TJ surgery, he won’t pitch in 2013, and if he does it won’t be in any sort of meaningful way.
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
Morrow has been up and down his whole career, mostly down.[/quote]
Not really a fair evaluation. He was consistently moved back and forth between the bullpen and starting rotation while in Seattle. He was also the source for a lot of fan anger since he was chosen over Lincecum the local Washington product. He’s only been fulltime SP since 2010 and if it weren’t for a freak oblique tear he would’ve had an excellent 2012, or was at least on track for one.
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
Josh Johnson could be the ace of this staff, but I always worry about a guy who’s already missed about two full years worth of starts this early into his career. [/quote]
Sure, there is risk involved.
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
I like Beurhle but I also don’t think a guy with his pitching-style is going to do well on that fast turf up in Toronto, and he isn’t getting any younger. Plus, he’ll probably be distracted by the fact that his dog isn’t allowed anywhere near Toronto since that backwards part of the world has banned American Staffordshire terriers.[/quote]
US Cellular field is even more hitter friendly than Rogers Centre. His ERA in Chicago was in the mid 3’s.
He can commute from Buffalo, I don’t give a fuck about the ban. There actually use to be a Buffalo Bills player who lived in Toronto and would commute to Buffalo (2 hours). He would just sleep in his limo while his driver took him there. I wonder if Mark Buehrle cares enough to do something like that.
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
That being said, the rest of the division has been extremely weak the last two or three years and is only getting weaker with the Yankees and Red Sox not expected to be big spenders this offseason. Tampa always has a surplus of talent, but other than them I don’t see a legitimate World Series contender in the division. Baltimore will struggle to finish above .500 next year if they don’t get some quality pitching. This could be the Jays’ window.
[/quote]
Tampa also lacks offense. If they lose Evan Longoria for a substantial amount of time again or he doesn’t have a fantastic year, they’re pretty much fucked. Remember they’re on the verge of losing BJ Upton, who while isn’t elite was one of their better hitters. Unless Desmond Jennings blossoms into something substantial offensively, they’ll have question marks.
The only reason the loss of Longoria didn’t appear as glaring this year was because the rest of the division (save the O’s) were all obliterated with injuries.
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
I wonder what will happen if they come out and suck cock for the first half of the year and are buried in the standings by the end of July. It wouldn’t shock me to see a lot of the quality guys they’ve landed thus far go right back onto the trading block.[/quote]
I can see them dealing Buerhle or Johnson but other than that, the core will stay together.
They have an extremely talented offense. Even if half the lineup only produces and the rest have a down year, the starting pitching staff will have substantial offensive support.
Also just look at the speed of the this team - Reyes, Davis, Lawrie, Gose - 2 50 base stealers and 2 guys who can steal 50 bases.
Christ this team will be fun to watch
