[quote]therajraj wrote:
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
HOWEVER, if you watch him throw out of the stretch you’ll see that there’s a slight pause in his motion at the top of his leg kick. I don’t like this from a purely mechanical standpoint. It DOES upset the timing of the hitter ever so slightly, but it also stops his momentum. To use a weightlifting analogy, it’s sort of like stopping for a split second at the bottom of a squat. You lose the extra momentum that the stretch reflex allows for and you are effectively squatting from a stationary position much like squatting off of pins. It requires extra strain to complete the squat as a result.
This is much more dramatic than Darvish’s motion, but the concept is the same. By cutting short some of his momentum he has to strain that much more to get things going again. It’s a VERY slight factor here, but given that he’ll being throwing on four days’ rest and not five like in Japan, AND given that he’ll be expected to throw more innings than he has in Japan, the cumulative effect could be problematic for him.
One other thing I noticed that may be a problem is his tendency to place the ball so far behind him as he takes his right hand out of his mitt. It’s more of a timing mechanism than anything and something that can be problematic as far as finding a consistent release point goes. It’s my opinion that this is why Lincecum can be erratic with his command from time to time.
As long as he maintains a long stride length he should be fine with this ball path in terms of health. But if he doesn’t maintain a long stride length (either by inconsistently striding during a game or due to a loss of flexibility as his career lengthens) this WILL become a mechanical problem that will quicken the deterioration of his arm because now he’ll be slightly late getting the arm up and out in front. I’d like to see some video of him pitching when he’s struggling with his command and/or his velocity is down.
About his stuff: it’s pretty good, but I’m always skeptical about Japanese pitchers coming over here. There’s only been one who was any good for a considerable amount of time (Nomo). They use a different type of ball in Japan. It’s a little bit smaller and, like I said, they pitch every 6th day there. Also, from what I’ve heard he has a tendency to get away from the fastball and rely too heavily on his off-speed stuff.
When you throw as hard as he does (I’ve heard he consistently throws in the high 90’s) and you go to your off-speed stuff a lot, you’re essentially going to your second and third best pitches a lot. This isn’t Japan anymore, it’s the Major Leagues and he won’t be facing semi-reluctant players looking to get into shape while wearing the red, white and blue like he did in the World Baseball Classic. Major league hitters feast on everybody’s second and third best pitches when they see them often.[/quote]
Pretty Interesting take. Will definitely have to watch the youtube a clip few more times to pick up everything you described.
So nothing horribly wrong with his delivery, but could use a few small tweaks in terms of mechanics.
I’m not convinced pitching on every 5th day vs 6th will be a huge issue since he will still be pitching the same amount of innings each year. I think the source for a lot of this concern is a result of Dice-K’s health problems. But Dice-K would throw upwards to 200 pitches/game on short rest in high school. Darvish didn’t abuse his arm and for that reason I would argue his arm is a lot younger than Dice-K’s arm at the same age.[/quote]
Well, in reality pretty much any pitcher could use small tweaks to their delivery. There are very, very few pitchers who threw hard who remained injury-free AND threw strikes consistently. Even Nolan Ryan probably could have used a slight tweak, hence his horrible command, especially earlier in his career.
Pitching every 5th day might not be a big issue, but if he throws the same innings in the bigs that he did in Japan, he’ll be doing so over a shorter time frame. This could definitely accelerate any deterioration in his arm strength. Keep in mind, not only was he starting every 6th day, he also never made more than 28 starts in a season. The demand placed on him in the bigs is WAY bigger than the demand placed on pitchers in Japan. That’s not to mention that the quality of hitters in the bigs is far and away much better than in Japan.
Where did you hear that Matsuzaka was throwing 200+ pitches in his high school career? If he was throwing that many pitches in high school? That’s gotta be complete bullshit or an aberration rather than the norm for him. If he consistently threw that many pitches it tells me that he fucking sucked in high school except that every other pitcher on his team was even worse. That’s a LOT of pitches for a 7-inning game, and I assume he was really good in high school.
Regardless, the adjustment Darvish needs to make when throwing on what would essentially be short rest for him could be difficult to make. I’m just not sold on any of these Japanese pitchers at all. Matsuzaka was supposed to be the Real Deal and he clearly wasn’t. His first season was below average (15-12, 4.40 ERA), his second season was good (18-3, 2.90 ERA). But as we all know, those numbers are a bit deceiving. He was all over the place most of the year and was injured, beginning a recurring pattern of arm fatigue/breakdowns. Every year since then has been a complete bust.
Nomo is really the only good Japanese starting pitcher to play in the bigs, and even then he wasn’t good for an extended period of time. He was really good for a couple years and then was mostly mediocre with the intermittent flash of brilliance. There’s been a couple good relievers, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that for the most part those who have succeeded have been relievers.
I think there seems to be this fascination with Japanese players that is due in some part to racism or ignorance. We see these pitchers with unconventional windups and weird names for their pitches and we assign the same sort of cunning and deviousness and inventiveness that we assign them when we marvel at some of the electronic shit coming out of Japan.
The bottom line is that he’s 6’5", 185 lbs with a good fastball and good off-speed stuff who already has four seasons with 200+ innings and another with 185 innings under his belt. That isn’t anything special at all by Major League Baseball standards. There are all sorts of 25 year olds in the bigs with that kind of stuff, and they’re built to hold up much better over the course of a 35-start season. I don’t see what’s different about him, other than he’s a completely unproven commodity.