MLB 2011 Part Two

Off Topic
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[quote]therajraj wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]therajraj wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]therajraj wrote:
I agree that RISP is a genuine knock on Bautista
[/quote]

What would you say about his noticeable decline in performance after the All-Sate break? His average was .334 before the break, and he’s now hitting .261 in the games after the break. He’s also striking out at a much greater clip, and hitting a lot less home runs.

Simple regression towards the mean? or a lack of performance when it counts?[/quote]

There’s a few reasons:

If you look at last year he had two TERRIBLE months, I believe in June 2010 he hit under .200 with only 4HRs. So I think based on this he will likely have a bad month every year, it may just be part of the package.

The other reason is due to the lack of protection from Adam Lind behind him. Adam Lind has been AWFUL since the All star break, his batting average has dropped 50 points. If you look at Adam Lind’s number before the All Star break he was hitting above .300 and overall had great all around production.

Lets also not forget who hit in front of Bautista for most of the season - Rajai Davis and Corey Patterson two HORRIBLE hitters. Compare that to Adrian Gonzalez who has two MVP candidates in Pedroia and Ellsbury in front of him and David Ortiz behind him who is having an all star year. Think about it, with all the protection A-Gon has, he is STILL being outperformed by Jose Bautista.

The pace Bautista was on before the all star break was so ridiculous it’s unfair to really expect him to do that for a whole season. He was on pace for 60HR while hitting .334 as you said. I’m really not surprised he has slowed down.

Lastly, his walk rate has gone through the roof this year. He already has 5 more walks than he had all of last season, if there’s a RISP and 1st base is open he is pitched around a lot of the time. Again this is tied to Adam Lind’s disastrous 2nd half.

But lets be realistic, he’s leads the league in on-base percentage (.456), slugging average (.645), on-base plus slugging (1.101), home runs (37) and bases on balls (103). If you guys don’t think he should be MVP fine, but don’t give me this BS that he is not the best offensive player in the league. It’s laughable to say he isn’t, let alone rank him 4th.

If you guys are going to pick A-Gon or someone other than Bautista for the AL MVP I’d love to know why. The only semi-legit reason is that it should go to a team in contention. Other than that I can’t see why you’d pick anyone else.[/quote]

Honestly, I’d pick Justin Verlander as the AL MVP. You can argue all you want that pitchers shouldn’t be in, but he is almost single handily responsible for the lead the Tigers have in the AL Central.

7 wins in his last 7 starts, 2.28 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 19-5 Record, 212 K’s on the season…[/quote]

I would never give the MVP award to a pitcher because they already have an award the Cy Young.

As much as Verlander has helped his team, he’s only playing in 30-35 games in a season. It would be unjust to ignore the players having great years that play 155+ games a year and have to perform on a DAILY basis.[/quote]

In the manner of a good healthy argument, I think that’s ignorant of you to say, as you stated that MVP stands for the most valuable player to a given teams success. If the Tigers didn’t have Verlander, they wouldn’t be leading their division.

Also, they have the Silver Slugger awards for batters, so your comment about Cy Young for pitchers is irrelevant.

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MVP does NOT mean most vauable to HIS team. It means most valuable player. Most valuable to ANY team.

Bautista being on the Blue Jays is irrelevant in a discussion like this.

Silver Slugger vs Cy Young is a valid argument. But then there should be an award for best reliever as well, to honor each position. Cy Young award was given out for the first time in '56, well before relief pitching was a serious part of baseball.

I think pitchers can be in the MVP discussion but only very rarely. Verlander isnt having a crazy season stats wise. He may have the best stats this year, but nothing ridiculous (especially considering he’s a power pitcher). Now, Pedro’s 1999 season when he went 23-4 with a 2.07 era 313Ks and 37(!) walks is an MVP season. Or ALL of Randy Johnson’s 2002 season 24-5 2.32 334Ks 71 walks(2001 also for RJ). Those are seasons that deserve MVP consideration for a pitcher. Pure dominance. And strikeouts DO matter because, along with walks and home runs allowed, K’s are what is solely in the pitcher’s control. Strikeouts, walks, and homer’s allowed are a very good measure of how dominant a pitcher is.

Bautista shouldnt win the MVP because his RBIs are too low. 3:1 rbi:hr ratio is typical/acceptable. Runs are what win games. Runs scored and RBI are the two most important offensive stats. HR is a good stat because the guys who hit the most homers have the best chance to get a lot of RBI but a guy with 25 homers 45 doubles 115 rbi is more valuable than 45 homers 110 rbi (which may be exactly where Baustista winds up). Yes, Bautista’s lineup isnt great around him but the Jays still rank 4th in the AL in runs scored. I wouldnt be mad if he did win but I dont think he should.

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[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]therajraj wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]therajraj wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]therajraj wrote:
I agree that RISP is a genuine knock on Bautista
[/quote]

What would you say about his noticeable decline in performance after the All-Sate break? His average was .334 before the break, and he’s now hitting .261 in the games after the break. He’s also striking out at a much greater clip, and hitting a lot less home runs.

Simple regression towards the mean? or a lack of performance when it counts?[/quote]

There’s a few reasons:

If you look at last year he had two TERRIBLE months, I believe in June 2010 he hit under .200 with only 4HRs. So I think based on this he will likely have a bad month every year, it may just be part of the package.

The other reason is due to the lack of protection from Adam Lind behind him. Adam Lind has been AWFUL since the All star break, his batting average has dropped 50 points. If you look at Adam Lind’s number before the All Star break he was hitting above .300 and overall had great all around production.

Lets also not forget who hit in front of Bautista for most of the season - Rajai Davis and Corey Patterson two HORRIBLE hitters. Compare that to Adrian Gonzalez who has two MVP candidates in Pedroia and Ellsbury in front of him and David Ortiz behind him who is having an all star year. Think about it, with all the protection A-Gon has, he is STILL being outperformed by Jose Bautista.

The pace Bautista was on before the all star break was so ridiculous it’s unfair to really expect him to do that for a whole season. He was on pace for 60HR while hitting .334 as you said. I’m really not surprised he has slowed down.

Lastly, his walk rate has gone through the roof this year. He already has 5 more walks than he had all of last season, if there’s a RISP and 1st base is open he is pitched around a lot of the time. Again this is tied to Adam Lind’s disastrous 2nd half.

But lets be realistic, he’s leads the league in on-base percentage (.456), slugging average (.645), on-base plus slugging (1.101), home runs (37) and bases on balls (103). If you guys don’t think he should be MVP fine, but don’t give me this BS that he is not the best offensive player in the league. It’s laughable to say he isn’t, let alone rank him 4th.

If you guys are going to pick A-Gon or someone other than Bautista for the AL MVP I’d love to know why. The only semi-legit reason is that it should go to a team in contention. Other than that I can’t see why you’d pick anyone else.[/quote]

Honestly, I’d pick Justin Verlander as the AL MVP. You can argue all you want that pitchers shouldn’t be in, but he is almost single handily responsible for the lead the Tigers have in the AL Central.

7 wins in his last 7 starts, 2.28 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 19-5 Record, 212 K’s on the season…[/quote]

I would never give the MVP award to a pitcher because they already have an award the Cy Young.

As much as Verlander has helped his team, he’s only playing in 30-35 games in a season. It would be unjust to ignore the players having great years that play 155+ games a year and have to perform on a DAILY basis.[/quote]

In the manner of a good healthy argument, I think that’s ignorant of you to say, as you stated that MVP stands for the most valuable player to a given teams success. If the Tigers didn’t have Verlander, they wouldn’t be leading their division.

Also, they have the Silver Slugger awards for batters, so your comment about Cy Young for pitchers is irrelevant.[/quote]

I don’t agree that the Silver Slugger award makes my argument about not giving pitchers the MVP award invalid. Let’s put it this way, say you’re boy Sandoval wins the Silver Slugger award for 3B. Now he’s a good hitter but he is no way, shape or form in the same category as A-Gon, Bautista or Granderson. Silver Slugger tells us who is the best hitter at each position but says nothing about which player is the best overall position player. The MVP should be awarded to a position player for that distinction.

And yeah this is a good healthy argument.

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[quote]BONEZ217 wrote:
MVP does NOT mean most vauable to HIS team. It means most valuable player. Most valuable to ANY team.

Bautista being on the Blue Jays is irrelevant in a discussion like this.
[/quote]

I agree it shouldn’t but after skimming the list of previous AL MVP winners, every player was on a team headed to the post season or at least competing for a playoff spot until the very end of the season.

[quote]BONEZ217 wrote:

Bautista shouldnt win the MVP because his RBIs are too low. 3:1 rbi:hr ratio is typical/acceptable. Runs are what win games. Runs scored and RBI are the two most important offensive stats. HR is a good stat because the guys who hit the most homers have the best chance to get a lot of RBI but a guy with 25 homers 45 doubles 115 rbi is more valuable than 45 homers 110 rbi (which may be exactly where Baustista winds up). Yes, Bautista’s lineup isnt great around him but the Jays still rank 4th in the AL in runs scored. I wouldnt be mad if he did win but I dont think he should. [/quote]

I agree runs scored is a good TEAM stat but not for individual performance. It’s best to look at OBP because a player who gets on base a lot puts himself into a position to score more often. The physical times he actually crosses the plate is merely an indicator of the player’s abilities behind him.

As for total RBI, I explained briefly why I dislike this stat but let me put it another way. Does it matter to you that A-Gon and Granderson have had 158 and 138 AB with RISP while Bautista has had only 84?

Of those AB:

Bautista has earned 38 RBI in 84 AB (45.2%)

A-Gon 74 RBI in 158 AB (46.8%)

Granderon 63RBI in 138 AB (45.6%)

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/player/splits/2011/393076
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/player/splits/2011/288903
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/player/splits/2011/392528

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Even though Granderson and A-Gon have the same amount of RBI, A-Gon is clearly the better hitter looking at their situational stats. I would rank 1. A-Gon 2. Bautista 3. Granderson when it comes to hitting with RISP. Granderson and Bautista are separated by only a few batting points but Bautista has a far better OBP.

More proof total RBI is a bullshit stat.

Also I’ve never heard of that 1:3 HR/RBI ratio. Is that some sort of unwritten baseball standard or your personal opinion?

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[quote]therajraj wrote:
Even though Granderson and A-Gon have the same amount of RBI, A-Gon is clearly the better hitter looking at their situational stats. I would rank 1. A-Gon 2. Bautista 3. Granderson when it comes to hitting with RISP. Granderson and Bautista are separated by only a few batting points but Bautista has a far better OBP.

More proof total RBI is a bullshit stat.

Also I’ve never heard of that 1:3 HR/RBI ratio. Is that some sort of unwritten baseball standard or your personal opinion?[/quote]

I dont think Granderson is an mvp candidate with a sub 280 batting avg. I dont have an opnion on who should win it yet.

RBI is for sure NOT a bullshit stat. Scoring runs is how you win games. Baseball is a team sport. The reason why MVPs tend to come from the contending teams is because they have the CHANCE to have the best stats; and DO have the best stats because they produce. I like the percentage of runs driven in. But look at your numbers, Bautista is still 3rd, even if by less than 1%.

OBP is hardly a good stat to discuss in mvp voting. POTENTIAL to win games doesnt matter. Results matter. Runs on the scoreboard matter, not the possibility of runs on the scoreboard. As I said the Jays are 4th in the AL in runs scored. Low RBI numbers because of low opportunity would matter for someone on the astros or giants or padres.

Yes, some writers think MVP should only come from a playoff team but that’s stupid IMO, to have a such a closed mindset about that. A-rod being the only exception in recent times because his numbers were so much better than everyone else, it was undeniable. Bautista isnt doing what A-rod did.

And one last thing. You cant look at batting avg and OBP alone to compare value. If youre going to go that route you may as well look at batting average on balls in play BABIP. RBI and RUNS are raw numbers. AVG, OBP, OPS, BABIP and all the other metrics can be skewed any number of ways to support an argument. It’s very easy to look at a few numbers in isolation and make a determination. To be real about this if youre going to go with OBP as a potential to lead to wins you may as well make the whole decision based on WAR (wins above replacement).

3:1 ratio is just a common trend seen over the years. Most players will come very close to that ratio over any period of time. Just the way it works out.

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[quote]DBCooper wrote:
Look rajraj, first of all there’s no reason to cite sportswriters or their opinions in this discussion. Their opinions are no more valid than yours or mine. So let’s just stick to our own opinions and statistics to buffer our arguments. Sportswriters are the scourge of the journalistic world.
[/quote]

Boy your posts show up mega late, I literally just saw them. I only posted a sportswriters breakdown because strungoutboy21 said he values sportswriters opinions.

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

In today’s baseball, where runs are harder to come by, the more runs you can score from good baserunning/stealing and the more you can prevent with good defense, the higher your value. Defense and baserunning matters when it comes to MVP. It isn’t an award for strictly the best hitter.

If it were, you’d have an almost airtight case for Bautista. But Granderson and Gonzalez have had legitimately comparable years to Bautista, offensively, and they each are better players in other facets of the game than Bautista is. You’re right, Granderson isn’t that good defensively, but he’s solid, he has good range, and his fielding % is pretty good. He’s also the superior baserunner, even if I have undervalued Bautista’s baserunning at this point.

Gonzalez is the best defensive player of all the candidates and a legit perennial Gold Glove candidate. He also hits about 100 points higher than Bautista does with runners in scoring position and about 30 points higher overall. And I don’t think avg w/ RISP can really be overvalued when it comes to two players whose seasons are otherwise very comparable. What hit is more VALUABLE to a team? A hit with no one on, or a hit with one or more on?

The reason I would go with any of the three aforementioned players before Bautista is simple, really. ALL of these players are having outstanding years at the plate and while Bautista might be having the best one, depending on what stats you do and don’t value, there is a legit argument for the others, except for Ellsbury. But there is no argument as far as what player brings the least intangibles to a game in terms of baserunning, defense and clutch hitting, and that is also Bautista. So although he is still one of the best all-around players in the game since he isn’t necessarily bad at these other things, he is the 4th best all-around player of the four candidates. He’s the 3rd best baserunner, he’s the worst defender of the four, playing the easiest position of the four, and he’s the worst clutch hitter of the four. You argue that his RBI numbers aren’t as high as Gonzalez’s due to playing in Toronto and not Boston, but how many more would he have if he hit .348 with RISP like Gonzales does instead of .241 like he does now?

If you simply go based on hitting statistics, there isn’t much of an argument for anyone else, other than maybe Gonzalez. But if you give defense, baserunning and clutch hitting its due credit, then Bautista isn’t the MVP, plain and simple.[/quote]

RF and 3rd Base are easier to play than 1B?

A page ago you made a point against Joey Votto’s MVP case by stating he doesn’t play a difficult position. Why aren’t you holding that point against A-Gon? Bautista plays 2 positions above average and has a cannon of an arm. He is 7th in Outfield assists in the AL and hasn’t even’t played in RF all season. Granderson is not better than Bautista defensively so he would rank 2nd or 3rd depending on whether you consider Ellsbury a real MVP candidate. IMO A-Gon is the only other real contender. He’s definitely better on the basepaths than A-Gon

Does it make a difference to you that his OBP is .508 with RISP, the highest of any candidate? He constantly gets pitched around. You can’t do that with A-Gon when you have Ortiz and Youkilis following. If Bautista were hitting in A-Gon’s position I would argue his RISP would be close to his overall batting average and RBIs would be over 100 at this point.

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[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]therajraj wrote:
I agree that RISP is a genuine knock on Bautista
[/quote]

What would you say about his noticeable decline in performance after the All-Sate break? His average was .334 before the break, and he’s now hitting .261 in the games after the break. He’s also striking out at a much greater clip, and hitting a lot less home runs.

Simple regression towards the mean? or a lack of performance when it counts?[/quote]

That’s another good point. What did George Steinbrenner used to disparagingly call Dave Winfield? Oh yeah, Mr. May.

It’s much more important to play well in the second half than the first, especially when there is a significant difference in performance from one half to the next. Down the stretch matters because performing well in those games is the very definition of value, especially in tight divisional or wild-card races. That’s why Bautista gets undervalued by some as an MVP candidate; he simply doesn’t play in games with as high a value to them that the others do, so each statistic he accrues simply doesn’t have the same value attached to it. I suppose the flip side of this coin is that he should get a little extra credit for doing well earlier in the year when Toronto was still in it, but it doesn’t outweigh the value of games now.

[/quote]

The Jays were basically out the playoff picture by the All Star Break. Secondly he’s had a bad 5 weeks and it’s ridiculous to assert he’s a first half player when we haven’t even played September. On top of that he had monster months in August and September last year. This has nothing to do with his MVP candidacy this year just that it makes no sense to call him a first half player based on 5 bad weeks this year!

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[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]therajraj wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]therajraj wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]therajraj wrote:
I agree that RISP is a genuine knock on Bautista
[/quote]

What would you say about his noticeable decline in performance after the All-Sate break? His average was .334 before the break, and he’s now hitting .261 in the games after the break. He’s also striking out at a much greater clip, and hitting a lot less home runs.

Simple regression towards the mean? or a lack of performance when it counts?[/quote]

There’s a few reasons:

If you look at last year he had two TERRIBLE months, I believe in June 2010 he hit under .200 with only 4HRs. So I think based on this he will likely have a bad month every year, it may just be part of the package.

The other reason is due to the lack of protection from Adam Lind behind him. Adam Lind has been AWFUL since the All star break, his batting average has dropped 50 points. If you look at Adam Lind’s number before the All Star break he was hitting above .300 and overall had great all around production.

Lets also not forget who hit in front of Bautista for most of the season - Rajai Davis and Corey Patterson two HORRIBLE hitters. Compare that to Adrian Gonzalez who has two MVP candidates in Pedroia and Ellsbury in front of him and David Ortiz behind him who is having an all star year. Think about it, with all the protection A-Gon has, he is STILL being outperformed by Jose Bautista.

The pace Bautista was on before the all star break was so ridiculous it’s unfair to really expect him to do that for a whole season. He was on pace for 60HR while hitting .334 as you said. I’m really not surprised he has slowed down.

Lastly, his walk rate has gone through the roof this year. He already has 5 more walks than he had all of last season, if there’s a RISP and 1st base is open he is pitched around a lot of the time. Again this is tied to Adam Lind’s disastrous 2nd half.

But lets be realistic, he’s leads the league in on-base percentage (.456), slugging average (.645), on-base plus slugging (1.101), home runs (37) and bases on balls (103). If you guys don’t think he should be MVP fine, but don’t give me this BS that he is not the best offensive player in the league. It’s laughable to say he isn’t, let alone rank him 4th.

If you guys are going to pick A-Gon or someone other than Bautista for the AL MVP I’d love to know why. The only semi-legit reason is that it should go to a team in contention. Other than that I can’t see why you’d pick anyone else.[/quote]

Honestly, I’d pick Justin Verlander as the AL MVP. You can argue all you want that pitchers shouldn’t be in, but he is almost single handily responsible for the lead the Tigers have in the AL Central.

7 wins in his last 7 starts, 2.28 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 19-5 Record, 212 K’s on the season…[/quote]

I would never give the MVP award to a pitcher because they already have an award the Cy Young.

As much as Verlander has helped his team, he’s only playing in 30-35 games in a season. It would be unjust to ignore the players having great years that play 155+ games a year and have to perform on a DAILY basis.[/quote]

I agree with you on this one. As great a year as he’s having, I think there’s still more value to a team in a player who plays everyday.

Position players seem to have a higher rate of diminishing returns than starting pitchers do, meaning that while one position player may have more value than one starting pitcher, five good starting pitchers would be better for a team’s chances of success than having five good position players.

But we’re talking about just one player here, so regardless of which position player we think is having the best season, they have all been more valuable to their team because they play everyday. There’s value in being in the lineup every single day in and of itself, along with whatever performance occurs. A starter might make 35 starts a year and win or pitch well enough to win with really good numbers about 25 times if he’s really good, maybe a few more times if he’s an MVP candidate.

But I think if you were to go back and look at any position player candidate, you’d find that they basically impacted the game enough to shift the outcome in his team’s favor, resulting in a victory in some way, more times than a starter ever does on the mound. How many times does a hitter hit a game-winning home run? What about a home run that breaks a game wide open? Or one that ties a game, or knocks out a top-flight starter/closer? How many runs does he knock in at KEY moments in the game, how many does he score by moving up on a good baserunning play, or save from a nice scoop at first, or a nice running catch against the wall in center? Add all that sort of stuff up and you have probably way more plays like that than the best starter in the majors has wins.[/quote]

Do you have a #1 choice for an MVP candidate?

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[quote]BONEZ217 wrote:

I dont think Granderson is an mvp candidate with a sub 280 batting avg. I dont have an opnion on who should win it yet.

RBI is for sure NOT a bullshit stat. Scoring runs is how you win games. Baseball is a team sport. The reason why MVPs tend to come from the contending teams is because they have the CHANCE to have the best stats; and DO have the best stats because they produce. I like the percentage of runs driven in. But look at your numbers, Bautista is still 3rd, even if by less than 1%.

OBP is hardly a good stat to discuss in mvp voting. POTENTIAL to win games doesnt matter. Results matter. Runs on the scoreboard matter, not the possibility of runs on the scoreboard. As I said the Jays are 4th in the AL in runs scored. Low RBI numbers because of low opportunity would matter for someone on the astros or giants or padres.

Yes, some writers think MVP should only come from a playoff team but that’s stupid IMO, to have a such a closed mindset about that. A-rod being the only exception in recent times because his numbers were so much better than everyone else, it was undeniable. Bautista isnt doing what A-rod did.

And one last thing. You cant look at batting avg and OBP alone to compare value. If youre going to go that route you may as well look at batting average on balls in play BABIP. RBI and RUNS are raw numbers. AVG, OBP, OPS, BABIP and all the other metrics can be skewed any number of ways to support an argument. It’s very easy to look at a few numbers in isolation and make a determination. To be real about this if youre going to go with OBP as a potential to lead to wins you may as well make the whole decision based on WAR (wins above replacement).

3:1 ratio is just a common trend seen over the years. Most players will come very close to that ratio over any period of time. Just the way it works out. [/quote]

Baseball may be a team sport, but to accurately analyze a player’s individual value you have to account for other factors. To me the fact that 7 of the 12 top RBI guys in AL are on the Yankees and Red Sox should be factored in.

To be perfectly clear the stats I looked at were: AVG, HR, BB rate, OPS, OBP and WAR. Bautista leads in all of them except AVG.

Anyways putting aside the stats I’ve chosen as as well as RBI and runs scored, what other stats do you like?

I think Runs created is better than RBI and Bautista leads in that category.

Lastly, you don’t think Granderson, Bautista or Verlander should win and that really only leaves A-Gon. Unless you’re considering someone else?

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I am obviously of the camp that believes that the MVP Award can go to a pitcher.

I am also of the camp that believes that the candidates should be compared to other candidates for that given year, NOT years past. Take the Oscars for example, you compare films to others during that same year, not others of all time. Same goes for the MVP award.

With those two statements on the table, I still think Verlander takes it in my opinion (with A-Gon coming in second and Granderson third). There is obviously some season left to play, but right now I don’t give it to Bautista because his team isn’t even in the playoff hunt.

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Just read this in an ESPN article about Verlander’s 20th win. In response to the claim that a pitcher doesn’t play enough, compared to position players, to win the MVP:

“Looking at Verlander?s 216 innings shows that he has pitched 18.6 percent of the Tigers’ total innings (1161) while the team?s best offensive player and marginal MVP candidate, Miguel Cabrera, has logged 577 plate appearances, or 11.5 percent of their 5,001 total plate appearances. So who is really making a bigger contribution?”

An interesting way to look at it.

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One thing about the top RBI guys being on two teams. Think about that for a second. There are only so many RBIs to go around. The fact that there are 3 yankees in the top 4 of the AL rbi leaders makes it MORE impressive that Granderson has 103 RBI.

I actually didnt realize that Granderson is batting 277 at this point. If he gets his average up to 290 or better he’s my pick. 119 runs score 36 homers 10 triples 20 doubles 70 walks 26 stolen bases. Baustista only has a better AVG and OBP and 1 more homer. But whats the point of the high OBP if he isnt going to score. Thats the point Im trying to make. Bautista has fewer chances to drive people in, fine, thats a valid reason for having lower raw rbi numbers. But he’s been on base 236 times not including HBP ompared to Granderson being on base 203 times. Granderson has put himself in scoring position more often because of the amount of triples and stolen bases he has. Scoring runs is more important to winning games than being on base.

Granderson blows Bautista away in runs scored 119 to 93 and RBI 103 to 83.

It’s fine to say that Bautista WOULD have better numbers if he swapped teams with Granderson, but that’s not how this works.

Bautista’s numbers are good but they arent freakish. Like when Bonds had a 600 OBP with over 200 walks you could look past his RBI numbers. Baustista has a 450 OBP, surely not high enough to single it out as THE stat to win him the MVP.

WHy do you feel that Home Runs is a relevant stat? A solo homer counts the exact same as a run scored via a sac fly (aside from the fact that the same person gets the RBI and run scored; but this just reinforces my point about those two being the most valuable stats). Why is a homer more valuable than rbi double or rbi single? And obviously a 3 run homer is valuable because it leads to 3 runs crossing the plate. So as I said, it’s good to have home run hitters because they have the potential to get the most RBI but what’s the value in having the most home runs if you dont have the most RBI? It’s an over glorified stat IMO.

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[quote]therajraj wrote:

[quote]DBCooper wrote:
Look rajraj, first of all there’s no reason to cite sportswriters or their opinions in this discussion. Their opinions are no more valid than yours or mine. So let’s just stick to our own opinions and statistics to buffer our arguments. Sportswriters are the scourge of the journalistic world.
[/quote]

Boy your posts show up mega late, I literally just saw them. I only posted a sportswriters breakdown because strungoutboy21 said he values sportswriters opinions.

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

In today’s baseball, where runs are harder to come by, the more runs you can score from good baserunning/stealing and the more you can prevent with good defense, the higher your value. Defense and baserunning matters when it comes to MVP. It isn’t an award for strictly the best hitter.

If it were, you’d have an almost airtight case for Bautista. But Granderson and Gonzalez have had legitimately comparable years to Bautista, offensively, and they each are better players in other facets of the game than Bautista is. You’re right, Granderson isn’t that good defensively, but he’s solid, he has good range, and his fielding % is pretty good. He’s also the superior baserunner, even if I have undervalued Bautista’s baserunning at this point.

Gonzalez is the best defensive player of all the candidates and a legit perennial Gold Glove candidate. He also hits about 100 points higher than Bautista does with runners in scoring position and about 30 points higher overall. And I don’t think avg w/ RISP can really be overvalued when it comes to two players whose seasons are otherwise very comparable. What hit is more VALUABLE to a team? A hit with no one on, or a hit with one or more on?

The reason I would go with any of the three aforementioned players before Bautista is simple, really. ALL of these players are having outstanding years at the plate and while Bautista might be having the best one, depending on what stats you do and don’t value, there is a legit argument for the others, except for Ellsbury. But there is no argument as far as what player brings the least intangibles to a game in terms of baserunning, defense and clutch hitting, and that is also Bautista. So although he is still one of the best all-around players in the game since he isn’t necessarily bad at these other things, he is the 4th best all-around player of the four candidates. He’s the 3rd best baserunner, he’s the worst defender of the four, playing the easiest position of the four, and he’s the worst clutch hitter of the four. You argue that his RBI numbers aren’t as high as Gonzalez’s due to playing in Toronto and not Boston, but how many more would he have if he hit .348 with RISP like Gonzales does instead of .241 like he does now?

If you simply go based on hitting statistics, there isn’t much of an argument for anyone else, other than maybe Gonzalez. But if you give defense, baserunning and clutch hitting its due credit, then Bautista isn’t the MVP, plain and simple.[/quote]

RF and 3rd Base are easier to play than 1B?

A page ago you made a point against Joey Votto’s MVP case by stating he doesn’t play a difficult position. Why aren’t you holding that point against A-Gon? Bautista plays 2 positions above average and has a cannon of an arm. He is 7th in Outfield assists in the AL and hasn’t even’t played in RF all season. Granderson is not better than Bautista defensively so he would rank 2nd or 3rd depending on whether you consider Ellsbury a real MVP candidate. IMO A-Gon is the only other real contender. He’s definitely better on the basepaths than A-Gon

Does it make a difference to you that his OBP is .508 with RISP, the highest of any candidate? He constantly gets pitched around. You can’t do that with A-Gon when you have Ortiz and Youkilis following. If Bautista were hitting in A-Gon’s position I would argue his RISP would be close to his overall batting average and RBIs would be over 100 at this point.
[/quote]

I said that Votto doesn’t play a position as hard as CF and/or SS. 1B is definitely harder to play than RF. 3B isn’t really that hard either. All you have to do over there is stay out of the SS’s way on balls to your left and basically knock anything down hit to you and wing it over to first as hard as you can. Besides, how many games has Bautista even played at 3rd?

And no, it doesn’t matter to me what Bautista’s OBP is with RISP. It doesn’t change the fact that Bautista DOES NOT hit well by anyone’s standards with runners on base. Perhaps they should pitch to him even more in these situations. The fact that he doesn’t get pitched to a lot makes each at-bat he gets with RISP that much more important when they DO pitch to him. The reality is that his high OBP with RISP only further illuminates his failures in this department, since each time they pitch to him represents a more rare chance for him to produce.

His RBI totals are low due as much to his pitiful hitting in those situations as to anything else.

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[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:
I am obviously of the camp that believes that the MVP Award can go to a pitcher.

I am also of the camp that believes that the candidates should be compared to other candidates for that given year, NOT years past. Take the Oscars for example, you compare films to others during that same year, not others of all time. Same goes for the MVP award.

With those two statements on the table, I still think Verlander takes it in my opinion (with A-Gon coming in second and Granderson third). There is obviously some season left to play, but right now I don’t give it to Bautista because his team isn’t even in the playoff hunt.[/quote]

First. I wasnt comparing Verlander to Pedro or RJ. I was comparing the domiancne showed by them in those years. Verlander isnt showing the same dominance IMO.

Second. Why does whether a team is in a playoff race matter to an individual award? You see the MVP as a team award, that’s the only way you can give Verlander the award. Verlander wouldnt have 20 wins without Valverde and his offense. The MVP is definitely not a team award. If you want to give it to a pitcher he has to lead the league in Ks and ERA (most important) then walks and WHIP. BUt as I said, a pitcher should only even be in the conversation for MVP in very rare and special years. THere’s no way this is one of those years for Verlander.

But yea, why does it matter whether the team is in the playoff race? Winning the World Series is all that matters and most teams DONT make the playoffs. As I said earlier, precendent is misleading simply beacuse being on a good team gives an individual the best chance to have the best stats. But that doesnt mean ONLY someone on a good team can have the best stats. If you think about that it doesnt even come close to making sense to think of it that way. Bautista shouldnt win it because he doesnt have the best stats not because he isnt on a good team.

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I think Desmond Jennings is a future All-Star

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[quote]BONEZ217 wrote:
One thing about the top RBI guys being on two teams. Think about that for a second. There are only so many RBIs to go around. The fact that there are 3 yankees in the top 4 of the AL rbi leaders makes it MORE impressive that Granderson has 103 RBI. [/quote]

I don’t buy this argument. Even if the Yankees hit a lot of home runs they still get on base mostly through singles, doubles and walks meaning there are plenty of opportunities for Granderson to get RBI. If you need proof scroll up and look at how many times Granderson has hit with RISP vs Bautista. It’s not even close.

[quote]BONEZ217 wrote:

I actually didnt realize that Granderson is batting 277 at this point. If he gets his average up to 290 or better he’s my pick. 119 runs score 36 homers 10 triples 20 doubles 70 walks 26 stolen bases. Baustista only has a better AVG and OBP and 1 more homer. But whats the point of the high OBP if he isnt going to score. Thats the point Im trying to make. Bautista has fewer chances to drive people in, fine, thats a valid reason for having lower raw rbi numbers. But he’s been on base 236 times not including HBP ompared to Granderson being on base 203 times. Granderson has put himself in scoring position more often because of the amount of triples and stolen bases he has. Scoring runs is more important to winning games than being on base. [/quote]

No Bautista also has a better SLG, OPS, WAR, not just AVG and OBP. Bautista has a very good walk to strikeout ratio and low strikeouts in general (86) vs Granderson (136). In fact, Granderson has the 5th most strikeouts in the Major Leagues while Bautista is 70th.

[quote]BONEZ217 wrote:

Granderson blows Bautista away in runs scored 119 to 93 and RBI 103 to 83. [/quote]

All this tells me is he is a superior baserunner and hits in a better lineup

[quote]BONEZ217 wrote:

It’s fine to say that Bautista WOULD have better numbers if he swapped teams with Granderson, but that’s not how this works. [/quote]

Of course not, but there are certain ways you go about assessing a player’s value. I mean Felix Hernandez’s W/L record wasn’t nearly as pretty as Sabathia’s last year. Should Hernandez’s poor record have counted against him since you can’t magically put him on the Yankees?

Or look at Jayson Werth. Don’t you think some of his huge dropoff in production can be attributed to hitting in the Nationals lineup instead of the Phillies?

[quote]BONEZ217 wrote:

Bautista’s numbers are good but they arent freakish. Like when Bonds had a 600 OBP with over 200 walks you could look past his RBI numbers. Baustista has a 450 OBP, surely not high enough to single it out as THE stat to win him the MVP. [/quote]

Why do they have to be freakish? They just have to be the best this year to win. I stated several times that he’s doing well in OTHER stats too just OBP is a better indicator than RBI.

[quote]BONEZ217 wrote:

WHy do you feel that Home Runs is a relevant stat? A solo homer counts the exact same as a run scored via a sac fly (aside from the fact that the same person gets the RBI and run scored; but this just reinforces my point about those two being the most valuable stats). Why is a homer more valuable than rbi double or rbi single? And obviously a 3 run homer is valuable because it leads to 3 runs crossing the plate. So as I said, it’s good to have home run hitters because they have the potential to get the most RBI but what’s the value in having the most home runs if you dont have the most RBI? It’s an over glorified stat IMO. [/quote]

Because it’s a very individual stat and has little to do with what the rest of the team is doing. In order to get an RBI single or double you need someone in scoring position. The performance of those in front of you is crucial. A home run is almost completely generated by a single individual.

The threat of a homerun has a large impact in close games.

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[quote]BONEZ217 wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:
I am obviously of the camp that believes that the MVP Award can go to a pitcher.

I am also of the camp that believes that the candidates should be compared to other candidates for that given year, NOT years past. Take the Oscars for example, you compare films to others during that same year, not others of all time. Same goes for the MVP award.

With those two statements on the table, I still think Verlander takes it in my opinion (with A-Gon coming in second and Granderson third). There is obviously some season left to play, but right now I don’t give it to Bautista because his team isn’t even in the playoff hunt.[/quote]

First. I wasnt comparing Verlander to Pedro or RJ. I was comparing the domiancne showed by them in those years. Verlander isnt showing the same dominance IMO.

Second. Why does whether a team is in a playoff race matter to an individual award? You see the MVP as a team award, that’s the only way you can give Verlander the award. Verlander wouldnt have 20 wins without Valverde and his offense. The MVP is definitely not a team award. If you want to give it to a pitcher he has to lead the league in Ks and ERA (most important) then walks and WHIP. BUt as I said, a pitcher should only even be in the conversation for MVP in very rare and special years. THere’s no way this is one of those years for Verlander.

But yea, why does it matter whether the team is in the playoff race? Winning the World Series is all that matters and most teams DONT make the playoffs. As I said earlier, precendent is misleading simply beacuse being on a good team gives an individual the best chance to have the best stats. But that doesnt mean ONLY someone on a good team can have the best stats. If you think about that it doesnt even come close to making sense to think of it that way. Bautista shouldnt win it because he doesnt have the best stats not because he isnt on a good team. [/quote]

Not only that, but why is it okay to give the Cy Young to a pitcher on a bad team but not the MVP? Or WC7 do you also feel Cy Young should only go to players on contending teams? If it were up to you would you have given Sabathia the Cy Young over King Felix last year?

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[quote]therajraj wrote:

[quote]BONEZ217 wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:
I am obviously of the camp that believes that the MVP Award can go to a pitcher.

I am also of the camp that believes that the candidates should be compared to other candidates for that given year, NOT years past. Take the Oscars for example, you compare films to others during that same year, not others of all time. Same goes for the MVP award.

With those two statements on the table, I still think Verlander takes it in my opinion (with A-Gon coming in second and Granderson third). There is obviously some season left to play, but right now I don’t give it to Bautista because his team isn’t even in the playoff hunt.[/quote]

First. I wasnt comparing Verlander to Pedro or RJ. I was comparing the domiancne showed by them in those years. Verlander isnt showing the same dominance IMO.

Second. Why does whether a team is in a playoff race matter to an individual award? You see the MVP as a team award, that’s the only way you can give Verlander the award. Verlander wouldnt have 20 wins without Valverde and his offense. The MVP is definitely not a team award. If you want to give it to a pitcher he has to lead the league in Ks and ERA (most important) then walks and WHIP. BUt as I said, a pitcher should only even be in the conversation for MVP in very rare and special years. THere’s no way this is one of those years for Verlander.

But yea, why does it matter whether the team is in the playoff race? Winning the World Series is all that matters and most teams DONT make the playoffs. As I said earlier, precendent is misleading simply beacuse being on a good team gives an individual the best chance to have the best stats. But that doesnt mean ONLY someone on a good team can have the best stats. If you think about that it doesnt even come close to making sense to think of it that way. Bautista shouldnt win it because he doesnt have the best stats not because he isnt on a good team. [/quote]

Not only that, but why is it okay to give the Cy Young to a pitcher on a bad team but not the MVP? Or WC7 do you also feel Cy Young should only go to players on contending teams? If it were up to you would you have given Sabathia the Cy Young over King Felix last year?[/quote]

Yes. I don’t know why I believe in it, but I believe that MVP or other similar “best of” awards should go to players that are on contending teams. Not neccisarly championship teams, but at least ones that are playoff bound.

Maybe it’s from my days playing collegiate lacrosse on a great team, but I think it’s much more impressive (and also harder) to perform at a high level on a team that is contending for a championship/playoff spot, than on a team that has no chance of making it.

Performing under pressure is always much more impressive. Putting up great numbers for a team that has zero chance of making the playoffs just isn’t impressive to me, and I also think it’s much easier to do.

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[quote]DBCooper wrote:

His RBI totals are low due as much to his pitiful hitting in those situations as to anything else.[/quote]

He’s earning RBI at basically the same rate as A-Gon and Granderson while hitting with RISP. His BA is basically the same as Granderson.