Gold selling off hard and the dollar is running.
Yet stocks are holding up.
At least a short term sell off seems inevitable.
Has anyone else noticed these stock threads take off in down markets but people quickly lose interests when the markets are doing well? I wonder why.
A few weeks ago I posted that I thought the bull market was back on and I said the true test would be if the S&O 500 could get over 1150. It did and now it is approaching 1200. Interestingly, 1200 is about the level it was at in 2008 when the bottom fell out. Often times when a “bottom” breaks it will then become a “ceiling” on the recovery. So, in my opinion, we already have another significant test coming up; can the S&P get past 1200?
I’m still looking for entry points to get back in the market and haven’t participated at all since I made the call that the bull was back on. I’m actually considering selling my only position. I’ve still got an energy mutual fund. Energy has underperformed the market during this recovery so I would expect it to get hit harder in a correction or a new bear. I’d rather take the profits and have them ready to put toward more promising equities. As I’ve said before, I like Biotech and SE Asia. I need a bigger correction to get into SE Asia but at this point I’ll take a small correction to start getting into biotech. I’m not considering any form of gold right now.
I’m still riding the ruin of Britain and considering piling on to a few more of the weaker Euro sisters. As long as the Euro looks like a plague victim and China doesn’t have a real floating currency I think the dollar is going to be moderately strong. I’m also fairly certain that real estate in China has jumped the shark.
I’m still expecting a 10% correction on the DOW and S&P which will be the point for me to get back into oil and gas and chemicals.
Hopefully the next few weeks will allow enough time to study some possible brazilian stocks.
Since I took a new job at the first of the month I’ve been working 60 hour weeks. With family and lifting, I have not had much time for the board or this thread.
After my thesis failed, I moved aside waiting for further clarification. I have yet to get it. The market is giving every signal that it is weak and exhausted, at least in the short term. Yet, it continues to creep up. Volume has been anemic. From a charting perspective, the market looks like it should begin some kind of sell off almost immediately (at least by the end of tomorrow). I’m not betting one way or another yet.
The dollar and gold have been behaving as I have predicted. Unfortunately, I have not been trading in either. Truth is, without the time to dedicate to the markets, I am better off on the sidelines for now.
S&P 500 blew through 1200 like it was warm butter. Today it’s pulled back some but no matter. Investors are ignoring the fact that the market is priced for perfection when conditions are far from perfect and they are going to keep driving prices up. I’m sure we will have a strong pullback along the way but the S&P is headed for 1400. Sucks 'cause I can’t put my money in such an over priced market.
[quote]on edge wrote:
S&P 500 blew through 1200 like it was warm butter. Today it’s pulled back some but no matter. Investors are ignoring the fact that the market is priced for perfection when conditions are far from perfect and they are going to keep driving prices up. I’m sure we will have a strong pullback along the way but the S&P is headed for 1400. Sucks 'cause I can’t put my money in such an over priced market.[/quote]
Might be a blessing. I’ve been setting on the sidelines, waiting for the fates to align.
This might be it.
I am looking to go short again next week. I will try to explain my reasons over the weekend.
Where do you all see Gold and Silver going? I am not very technical in the markets and just recently started looking at Gold and Silver. When it comes to the general movements of the market up and down for a long period of time say 5 years then I can make an educated guess. Thanks for the info you have been putting on this thread.
[quote]dmaddox wrote:
Where do you all see Gold and Silver going? I am not very technical in the markets and just recently started looking at Gold and Silver. When it comes to the general movements of the market up and down for a long period of time say 5 years then I can make an educated guess. Thanks for the info you have been putting on this thread.[/quote]
This is my take on gold and silver. For most of the time it is at a stable level and not worth much, and then during recessions they shoot up for a period of time (5 or so years, depending), and then it eventually goes back down to a stable level. IMO it’s not worth investing for long periods of time/retirement, but it can be good to make a quick buck when you buy it cheap, and sell it when an oz. of it skyrockets like it has in the past couple years.
So what is up with the market. I was expecting a pull back but the futures this morning are showing a slight move to the upside. We seem to be moving sideways with really no direction. The future is cloudy. Where are we going from here? Any opinions?
[quote]JEATON wrote:
[quote]on edge wrote:
S&P 500 blew through 1200 like it was warm butter. Today it’s pulled back some but no matter. Investors are ignoring the fact that the market is priced for perfection when conditions are far from perfect and they are going to keep driving prices up. I’m sure we will have a strong pullback along the way but the S&P is headed for 1400. Sucks 'cause I can’t put my money in such an over priced market.[/quote]
Might be a blessing. I’ve been setting on the sidelines, waiting for the fates to align.
This might be it.
I am looking to go short again next week. I will try to explain my reasons over the weekend.
[/quote]
The market is close to its 200 week MA. It appears to be stalling. This would be a good time to short the market (I never will though).
A good way to make some money is in Chinese stocks/real estate. Once the Yuan is no longer artificially supressed, it should appreciate rapidly, lowering our standard of living and making Chinese dividends more valuable. There are several ETFs (Claymore/Alpha Shares China Real Estate ETF (NYSE: TAO) and the Claymore Alpha Shares China All-Cap Fund (NYSE: YAO) that have substantial positions in Chinese RE and banking. I’m investing in these myself.
[quote]dmaddox wrote:
So what is up with the market. I was expecting a pull back but the futures this morning are showing a slight move to the upside. We seem to be moving sideways with really no direction. The future is cloudy. Where are we going from here? Any opinions?[/quote]
I really like CNN’s money site.
[quote]PB Andy wrote:
[quote]dmaddox wrote:
So what is up with the market. I was expecting a pull back but the futures this morning are showing a slight move to the upside. We seem to be moving sideways with really no direction. The future is cloudy. Where are we going from here? Any opinions?[/quote]
I really like CNN’s money site.[/quote]
I read that site and Yahoo Finance everyday the market is open. I have a lot of mutual funds so I look at Morningstar.com. Morningstar also talks generally about the market, and individual stocks also.
My crystal ball is still cloudy, but I think the future is a little grim. I could see a 10% pull back, mainly because it is healthy for the market, but if inflation does not start to creeping into the market we might be going higher. Inflation to me is what will break this market.
What the heck is going on in the Market. You think the maket has made up its mind on its direction and then reverses course.
“Moving sideways”, “no direction”, “appears to be stalling” and more. What the heck are you guys looking at? Just look and the fucking S&P 500 and you will see the direction as clear as day. The direction is a smooth upward climb. Don’t bet against that until it breaks.
[quote]on edge wrote:
“Moving sideways”, “no direction”, “appears to be stalling” and more. What the heck are you guys looking at? Just look and the fucking S&P 500 and you will see the direction as clear as day. The direction is a smooth upward climb. Don’t bet against that until it breaks.
[/quote]
I see your point. What would be your definition of “breaks?” Should it move 5% down?
If you look at a year you are correct, but the past couple of weeks we have been moving side ways. It seems to be rolling over. This is my opinion only.
Yeah I’ve been letting my bank stocks ride but keeping tight bottoms under them. I think until we are out of earnings season its going to be hard to see a move down. Earnings have vastly improved on average and shut down that “PE’s are too high” garabge that seemed to come from people who couldn’t tell the difference between trailing and forward earnings.
Right now to me the biggest danger to the market is the vastly over appreciated Chinese real estate market. It makes California’s 2008 housing market look like a value investment. If that implodes look out below because China’s commodities demand will vanish.
[quote]JoeGood wrote:
Yeah I’ve been letting my bank stocks ride but keeping tight bottoms under them. I think until we are out of earnings season its going to be hard to see a move down. Earnings have vastly improved on average and shut down that “PE’s are too high” garabge that seemed to come from people who couldn’t tell the difference between trailing and forward earnings.
Right now to me the biggest danger to the market is the vastly over appreciated Chinese real estate market. It makes California’s 2008 housing market look like a value investment. If that implodes look out below because China’s commodities demand will vanish.
[/quote]
I hope you are right about China commodities demand will vanish. I am looking to buy up some presious metals soon, but waiting for a pull back before I go in lock stock and barrel.
[quote]JoeGood wrote:
Yeah I’ve been letting my bank stocks ride but keeping tight bottoms under them. I think until we are out of earnings season its going to be hard to see a move down. Earnings have vastly improved on average and shut down that “PE’s are too high” garabge that seemed to come from people who couldn’t tell the difference between trailing and forward earnings.
Right now to me the biggest danger to the market is the vastly over appreciated Chinese real estate market. It makes California’s 2008 housing market look like a value investment. If that implodes look out below because China’s commodities demand will vanish.
[/quote]
China has 2.5 trillion in savings, even if its market does go under it will just use its saving’s to build itself right back up.
[quote]John S. wrote:
[quote]JoeGood wrote:
Yeah I’ve been letting my bank stocks ride but keeping tight bottoms under them. I think until we are out of earnings season its going to be hard to see a move down. Earnings have vastly improved on average and shut down that “PE’s are too high” garabge that seemed to come from people who couldn’t tell the difference between trailing and forward earnings.
Right now to me the biggest danger to the market is the vastly over appreciated Chinese real estate market. It makes California’s 2008 housing market look like a value investment. If that implodes look out below because China’s commodities demand will vanish.
[/quote]
China has 2.5 trillion in savings, even if its market does go under it will just use its saving’s to build itself right back up.[/quote]
How are your investments doing?
[quote]JoeGood wrote:
How are your investments doing?
[/quote]
I had to sell a lot to replace my computer/pay for school so I am back down to my hecla stocks. Hecla is about 15 cents off from where I bought it at but it went through a pretty massice contraction a few weeks after I bought it.
With my next paycehck I am buying 10oz of silver, looks like there is some mininuplation in the silver market and I want to get in before all of that is exposed.