Most of the polls are within the margin of error, but, really, who cares about national polls?
Most of the state polls, which are the ones to watch in terms of putting together an electoral map, are also within the margin of error, and are generally innaccurate. However, they will refine as we get closer to the election.
One of the things to watch is where the candidates are spending their money and their time. They pay for more accurate, private polling information on a state-by-state basis for the “battleground” states. I think it’s safe to say that there are quite a few important states still being contested.
All that said, I still like the market data to which rainjack referred above – more accurate than polls, on the theory of the wisdom of the crowds.
What I think is interesting is how a lot of the pundits are saying that having Clinton come out and stump for Kerry is going to be a big factor, and that Gore’s biggest mistake was not taking advantage of Bill’s popularity. Now, while lots of people do love Bill, don’t forget that in both the elections he won, he never received Gore’s (or Bush’s) percentage of the popular vote for 2000. Just a little food for thought…