…As I continue to follow the Senator’s overseas trip…
Israelis (and American Jews) are “uneasy” about the Senator…(as an interesting side note, a lot of the Israeli press often uses Obama’s middle name, or like American Rivals, refer to him as " B. Hussien Obama")
Discussion
American Jewish voters can be as diverse as any other group; but how closely tied is their Vote to the “pulse and feelings” of Israel? (There seems to be a suggestion that for older American Jews, VERY close; younger generations, unclear…?)
Do you think that the Israeli “uneasiness” is due to the Senators inexperience; AND/OR the perception that Dems will be less supportive of Israel? (I think that U.S. Israeli policy since 1948 has not varied based on the party in office, and will continue to be unchanged).
Do you guys have any idea how strong McCain is among American Jewish voters? (It’s been hard to guage).
More importantly, note the clear “rise” in 1992, that suggests Jews are uncomfortable with the American government jeopardizing the delicate situation in the Middle East.
Surely, you must realize that America’s unconditional support for Israel is independent of which party’s in control of the White House.
[quote]lixy wrote:
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More importantly, note the clear “rise” in 1992, that suggests Jews are uncomfortable with the American government jeopardizing the delicate situation in the Middle East.
…[/quote]
[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
lixy wrote:
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More importantly, note the clear “rise” in 1992, that suggests Jews are uncomfortable with the American government jeopardizing the delicate situation in the Middle East.
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You mean the rise of 79% in 2000 to 75% in 2004?
You really are full of shit.[/quote]
Way to go!
The mean during all those years lies precisely at 68%. So the rise I referred to (between 1988 and 1992) remains the most impressive if you discount outliers. Now, anyone with functioning brain cells can see that 79% is awfully close to the max value, and that a 4 points drop can’t be indicative of anything.
If Democrats do as bad as the Gallup poll predicts in 2008, that’ll be a different story. In that case, my analysis would clearly be full of shit. Three months to go…
-Jews tend to be urbanites, congregating in big cities. Democrats of the modern era tend to do well as the party of the urban world.
-Democrats only recently have capitulated into their current foreign policy dovishness. The Democratic tradition, particularly in an around the Cold War and the birth of the modern state of Israel, was one of muscular internationalism, and Jews could naturally back a party that included Harry Truman, Scoop Jackson, and JFK, as the pre-1968 Democrats were reliable stalwarts for Israel.
Jimmy Carter’s vacillating approach to the Middle East is a guess.
I think it is a mixed bag, as urban Jews get turned off by flyover state politicians as a cultural matter, and that tempers their support for the generally pro-Israel GOP.
Hooray for Captain Obvious and his invaluable insight![/quote]
Are you actually trying to insult someone, Lixy? Shouldn’t you be smarter to be trying that? Don’t forget to stretch - I’d hate to see you pull something.
Because values associated with urbanites are more statist, culturally libertine, and relativistic than values associated with rural or suburban citizens, and the Democrat party is the chief political vehicle for those values, as the party of modern liberalism.
Surely you covered some of this while securing your two “master’s degrees”, right?
Because values associated with urbanites are more statist, culturally libertine, and relativistic than values associated with rural or suburban citizens, and the Democrat party is the chief political vehicle for those values, as the party of modern liberalism.
[/quote]
Pew poll: 55% US Jews identify “the economy” as the first issue by which they will vote this year; this is the same as the general public. (“Israel’s security” is the first issue among only 8%)
This is also true in past elections; the election priorities of self-identified Jews is the same as the general public.
This may be hard to believe for some inclined to divisive politics. But the point I make is that minorities–and minority opinions of all types–are valued in a pluralist democratic US. This is certainly not a surprise to Thunderbolt, or perhaps even to young Beowulf; and it may never be grasped by the likes of DysLixy.
I’m a religious Jew who’ll be voting the 1st time this fall. I’ve had PLENTY of discussions/arguments over this stuff. This is what I’ve observed from my community.( Keep in mind that I don’t necessarily agree with the “Jewish Opinion” all of the time)
[quote]
American Jewish voters can be as diverse as any other group; but how closely tied is their Vote to the “pulse and feelings” of Israel? (There seems to be a suggestion that for older American Jews, VERY close; younger generations, unclear…?)[/quote]
While Israel is important to most voters, it usually doesn’t sway votes as both parties’ positions are usually so similar. Like you say, our policy to Israel has been pretty consistent–it doesn’t matter who you vote for!
The exception, of course, would be if one candidate was perceived as radically anti israel (ron paul could be perceived that way by some). Then, in a case of good for israel vs. awful for israel, it would probably make a difference.
I don’t know if this explains it well enough, ask if it’s unclear.
[quote]
2) Do you think that the Israeli “uneasiness” is due to the Senators inexperience; AND/OR the perception that Dems will be less supportive of Israel? (I think that U.S. Israeli policy since 1948 has not varied based on the party in office, and will continue to be unchanged). [/quote]
Both.
Plenty of American Jews are understandably concerned about Iran, and don’t want a young, relatively inexperienced president handling a very serious situation.
BUT, Obama’s young age isn’t the only thing–there are other “issues” that have turned Jews off from Obama, fair or not. Take for example, the fact that Zbigniew Brzezinski of the Carter admin is advising Obama. This association with Carter, who as I’m sure you know most Jews don’t exactly love, hurts Obama.
I’d say that McCain’s performance among Jews will be comparable to how GWB did–he’ll pick up all the votes from Jews on the right end of the religious spectrum–think modern orthodox and right of that. From Jews left of that, MAYBE he’ll pick up some votes due to obama-skittishness. Not a ton, I bet.
Personally, I think that McCain and Obama will act very similarly towards Israel, and I think almost all of the “Obama hates Israel” stuff is silly and untrue.
Because values associated with urbanites are more statist, culturally libertine, and relativistic than values associated with rural or suburban citizens, and the Democrat party is the chief political vehicle for those values, as the party of modern liberalism.
Pew poll: 55% US Jews identify “the economy” as the first issue by which they will vote this year; this is the same as the general public. (“Israel’s security” is the first issue among only 8%)
[/quote]
Interesting fact there, but when both major parties are extremely pro Israel, there is less reason for your vote to be influenced by that particular issue. Likewise, if major both parties had very similar economic policies there would be little reason to base your vote on the economy.
I have a feeling Obama would lose a fair bit of his Jewish support if he announced that he was pursuing a non interventionist foreign policy and was cutting off Israel’s “aid” money.
[quote]JoshM wrote:
The exception, of course, would be if one candidate was perceived as radically anti israel (ron paul could be perceived that way by some). Then, in a case of good for israel vs. awful for israel, it would probably make a difference. [/quote]
If you don’t mind me asking, why is it that some perceive Ron Paul as “radically anti israel”? Are you one of them? Surely, you must be able to realize that his stance is more neutral than “anti” anything. Also, do you think the US’ unconditional support for Tel-Aviv and military handouts may hurt any peace prospects?
Those pics of obama, he looked like a whore in church.
He is in the home of the uzi, he will be have himself, but his words have no meaning…Actually he has an incredible gift for speaking a lot and saying nothing.
