Iran Nuclear Deal

Off Topic Politics & World Issues
201

[quote]Alrightmiami19c wrote:

“If we turn around and nix the deal and then tell them, you are going to have to obey our rules and sanctions anyway, that is a recipe, very quickly … for the American dollar to cease to be the reserve currency of the world,”

WHAT?

  1. How does he make that connection?
    [/quote]
    Reeks of desperation. Even some democrats are jumping the ship. That could very well be the tipping point. They need every democrat, because they need still a handful of some republicans.
    I do not know how he makes that connection, seems to be a non sequitur. Sanctioning Iran has not had that effect, so why would it suddenly cause the dollar to not be the reserve currency. And even if that were so, so what? We want the dollar to be strong, but that does not require it be the reserve currency of the world. And even if it’s not, they are not going to switch to the Ruble or the Yuan. It would be, likely the Euro. Which, if I am not mistaken, is the reserve currency of OPEC now, is it?

That would be a tragic blunder of blunders. To negotiate a deal that puts our currency at risk is terminally stupid.

That could be the case. In which case, passing the deal would not help if it’s in transition.

[quote]
Can we please find out what is in this deal for Christ sake? Not some second hand glossed over bullshit, we deserve to see whats at stake.[/quote]

Well it was here:
http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/documents/world/full-text-of-the-iran-nuclear-deal/1651/
But somehow it disappeared. I did manage to read a good bit of it before it disappeared and I didn’t find any ‘ah-ha’ moments. This is a case where the media, as it pertains to the actual text of the deal, has been fairly accurate on it’s reporting. I would have liked to have finished it though.

But we do have accurate information on the deal that we can peruse. Here are some links:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/parametersforajointcomprehenisveplanofaction.pdf

202

[quote]Alrightmiami19c wrote:

“If we turn around and nix the deal and then tell them, you are going to have to obey our rules and sanctions anyway, that is a recipe, very quickly … for the American dollar to cease to be the reserve currency of the world,”

WHAT?

  1. How does he make that connection?

  2. If that is true, what did they promise or negotiate in this deal that would make it so?

  3. Is he saying this because its going to happen anyway, and now he can say “told you so.”

Can we please find out what is in this deal for Christ sake? Not some second hand glossed over bullshit, we deserve to see whats at stake.[/quote]

Oh, here we go, the whole tamale:
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2165388-iran-deal-text.html

What we do not have, nor does congress is the IEAE strategy for carrying out the inspections. I most certainly do not congress to act on this deal, pro or con, until at least they have that information. It’s pretty crucial, since we are trusting them completely with the inspections.

203

[quote]pat wrote:

[quote]Alrightmiami19c wrote:

“If we turn around and nix the deal and then tell them, you are going to have to obey our rules and sanctions anyway, that is a recipe, very quickly … for the American dollar to cease to be the reserve currency of the world,”

WHAT?

  1. How does he make that connection?

  2. If that is true, what did they promise or negotiate in this deal that would make it so?

  3. Is he saying this because its going to happen anyway, and now he can say “told you so.”

Can we please find out what is in this deal for Christ sake? Not some second hand glossed over bullshit, we deserve to see whats at stake.[/quote]

Oh, here we go, the whole tamale:
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2165388-iran-deal-text.html

What we do not have, nor does congress is the IEAE strategy for carrying out the inspections. I most certainly do not congress to act on this deal, pro or con, until at least they have that information. It’s pretty crucial, since we are trusting them completely with the inspections.[/quote]

How will Iran Inspections Work?

http://www.cfr.org/nonproliferation-arms-control-and-disarmament/iran-nuclear-inspections-work/p36850

204

[quote]Bismark wrote:

[quote]pat wrote:

[quote]Alrightmiami19c wrote:

“If we turn around and nix the deal and then tell them, you are going to have to obey our rules and sanctions anyway, that is a recipe, very quickly … for the American dollar to cease to be the reserve currency of the world,”

WHAT?

  1. How does he make that connection?

  2. If that is true, what did they promise or negotiate in this deal that would make it so?

  3. Is he saying this because its going to happen anyway, and now he can say “told you so.”

Can we please find out what is in this deal for Christ sake? Not some second hand glossed over bullshit, we deserve to see whats at stake.[/quote]

Oh, here we go, the whole tamale:
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2165388-iran-deal-text.html

What we do not have, nor does congress is the IEAE strategy for carrying out the inspections. I most certainly do not congress to act on this deal, pro or con, until at least they have that information. It’s pretty crucial, since we are trusting them completely with the inspections.[/quote]

How Will Iran Inspections Work?

http://www.cfr.org/nonproliferation-arms-control-and-disarmament/iran-nuclear-inspections-work/p36850[/quote]

Also, as I pointed out earlier in this thread, Congress effectively made itself powerless to stop the deal.

205

Thanks for the links.

206

Colonel West says it best. Former Congressman and retired Lieutenant Colonel Allen West. Someone with EXPERIENCE offering an opinion. For the record, I offered my opinion before I heard this on podcast this morning.

207

This about sums it up perfectly.

208

504×501 36.4 KB

Apparently Bill wasn’t qualified to comment on that treaty.

209

[quote]angry chicken wrote:
This about sums it up perfectly.

Come on what does Allen West know?

Bismark is a college kid who has read a lot of books on the subject.

210

[quote]Bismark wrote:

[quote]pat wrote:

[quote]Alrightmiami19c wrote:

“If we turn around and nix the deal and then tell them, you are going to have to obey our rules and sanctions anyway, that is a recipe, very quickly … for the American dollar to cease to be the reserve currency of the world,”

WHAT?

  1. How does he make that connection?

  2. If that is true, what did they promise or negotiate in this deal that would make it so?

  3. Is he saying this because its going to happen anyway, and now he can say “told you so.”

Can we please find out what is in this deal for Christ sake? Not some second hand glossed over bullshit, we deserve to see whats at stake.[/quote]

Oh, here we go, the whole tamale:
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2165388-iran-deal-text.html

What we do not have, nor does congress is the IEAE strategy for carrying out the inspections. I most certainly do not congress to act on this deal, pro or con, until at least they have that information. It’s pretty crucial, since we are trusting them completely with the inspections.[/quote]

How will Iran Inspections Work?

http://www.cfr.org/nonproliferation-arms-control-and-disarmament/iran-nuclear-inspections-work/p36850[/quote]

That is based on the way the IEAE historically with assumptions on how they would handle Iran. That may be good enough for us lay folk, but law makers need the specific guidelines and practices they intend to use in Iran.
And presumably they will operate in Iran, much in the same way, but there are specific provisions in the agreement that the IEAE need to address. Chances are that the public will not be privy to the specifics of the Iran inspections. That’s good enough for us, John Q Public, but it’s not enough for congress to vote on.

211

[quote]Bismark wrote:

[quote]Bismark wrote:

[quote]pat wrote:

[quote]Alrightmiami19c wrote:

“If we turn around and nix the deal and then tell them, you are going to have to obey our rules and sanctions anyway, that is a recipe, very quickly … for the American dollar to cease to be the reserve currency of the world,”

WHAT?

  1. How does he make that connection?

  2. If that is true, what did they promise or negotiate in this deal that would make it so?

  3. Is he saying this because its going to happen anyway, and now he can say “told you so.”

Can we please find out what is in this deal for Christ sake? Not some second hand glossed over bullshit, we deserve to see whats at stake.[/quote]

Oh, here we go, the whole tamale:
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2165388-iran-deal-text.html

What we do not have, nor does congress is the IEAE strategy for carrying out the inspections. I most certainly do not congress to act on this deal, pro or con, until at least they have that information. It’s pretty crucial, since we are trusting them completely with the inspections.[/quote]

How Will Iran Inspections Work?

http://www.cfr.org/nonproliferation-arms-control-and-disarmament/iran-nuclear-inspections-work/p36850[/quote]

Also, as I pointed out earlier in this thread, Congress effectively made itself powerless to stop the deal. [/quote]

No they are not powerless to stop it and even if they were, it’s not congresses fault. The careful wording of the agreement to avoid any such item that would make it fall under a treaty provision would be the administration’s fault for circumventing the traditional checks and balances that would/ should be in place. And of course obama will use his veto power to shelve any bills congress passes with respect to the agreement.
This, of course is also not a new tactic by the obama administration as they use the power of executive order to circumvent congress pretty much at will. But it is important, that even if obama poo poo’s congress’s decision that the decent be a part of the public record so, as to indicate to obama’s abuse of power and so it can be dealt with at a later date.
Further, nobody should want this to pass or fail without congressional oversight. If congress can be bypassed at will on matters of such importance, we are dancing dangerously close to what a dictatorship normally looks like. I cannot imagine any American wanting that, even if the current dictator implements things you like, the next one may not.

212

I’m still wondering what we got out of this deal?

213

[quote]Alrightmiami19c wrote:
Thanks for the links.

[/quote]

One of the things that jumped out at me is how many times the term “in good faith” was used in the document. Also, the many provisions that allows Iran to simply walk away from the deal. If Iran wants out, they simply have to raise a dispute and refuse to settle it. In 30 days, they can give everybody the finger and walk away; legally. Also, if any of the countries do something Iran does not like, I.E. re-apply or create new sanctions, Iran can walk away…legally without repercussion.

Here is an 18 page version of the agreement. What it removed were all the specifics of each the goods and services Iran is now allowed to provide and receive. All the important stuff is available.

The more I look at it, the worse it looks. Netanyahu’s concerns over this agreement are well founded. They are not only allowed to pursue nuclear energy, they are going to be helped and educated. In 15 years, they will legally, be able to pursue nuclear weapons.
This looks more like a deal one would make with Canada rather than a rogue state like Iran.

214

[quote]usmccds423 wrote:
I’m still wondering what we got out of this deal?[/quote]

Nothing. Not a damn thing. We got a promise that they will not try to make a bomb for 15 years. The amount of shit Iran gets it astronomical. This is a complete boon for them. In exchange for not making a weapon for 15 years, they will have the ability to legally pursue just that after the agreement expires. 15 years is not a long time. But it’s enough time to make them a large economic force, who then can pursue a nuclear arsenal. If I were Iran, I would be dancing in the streets. It’s one thing to keep your enemies close, it’s another the drown them in a treasure bath.

215

[quote]pat wrote:

[quote]Alrightmiami19c wrote:
Thanks for the links.

[/quote]

One of the things that jumped out at me is how many times the term “in good faith” was used in the document. Also, the many provisions that allows Iran to simply walk away from the deal . . . In 15 years, they will legally, be able to pursue nuclear weapons. [/quote]

“In good faith” is a standard diplomatic platitude. The phrase is used prolifically in international law.

Virtually every international agreement has withdraw provisions. States would be hesitant to commit themselves perpetually to binding obligations whilst they reside in an anarchical international system. This is why many international agreements also have sunset clauses. Why would this one be any different?

Legally be able to pursue nuclear arms? What are you basing that statement on? Iran is party to the NPT, which forbids non-nuclear weapon states from pursuing atomic arms. The accession to the IAEA’s Additional Protocol will have to be permanent at the end of the JCPOA or they will face a renewed sanctions regime.

216

[quote]usmccds423 wrote:
I’m still wondering what we got out of this deal?[/quote]

Let me think…well we look weak caving to a terrorist state. We got that out of the deal, of course that isn’t good.

217

A better deal is an illusion. If the United States rejects the JCPOA, its policy vis-a-vis Iran will be limited to a daunting dilemma: war or containment. I prefer an imperfect deal (an ideal deal is an irresponsible fantasy) to either surgical strikes against Iran’s nuclear program or containment, though the latter is preferable to the former.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/iran-deal-rejection-121257.html#.Vc4V8PlViko

218

[quote]usmccds423 wrote:
I’m still wondering what we got out of this deal?[/quote]

SMH wrote an excellent post regarding that on the previous page.

219

Textbook case of what Bismark is talking about when he cautions against listening to people who don’t know anything about foreign affairs:

[quote]pat wrote:

[quote]usmccds423 wrote:
I’m still wondering what we got out of this deal?[/quote]

Nothing. Not a damn thing. We got a promise that they will not try to make a bomb for 15 years.[/quote]

No. As I wrote a page ago (it has been slightly altered):

[quote]smh_23 wrote:
150 inspectors in the country, IAEA technical monitors and international scientists at Fordow, 98 percent reduction in uranium-stockpile size and a 3.67 percent cap on enrichment, late-generation centrifuges surrendered, Arak dispossessed of plutonium-production capacity, 25 years of IAEA monitoring of nuclear facilities. The 24 days entail some risk, particularly if the Iranians find a way to stall further, but, as Moniz said, this is not a matter of dishwashing (and the extant nuclear facilities themselves will not be subject to any delay: they will be monitored continuously). Nuclear weapons production is heavy industry, and an interested American security apparatus is a hell of a thing to try to hide from. Again, though, it is absolutely inarguable that the agreement effectively destroys Iran’s capacity to develop a nuclear weapon for up to a quarter of a century (and, indeed, beyond: they aren’t going to get back much of what’s taken from them). There is no question about this. Perhaps we do go to war in 25, 40, 50 years; perhaps we don’t. Perhaps the Iranian regime and, more importantly, Iranian people get pushed beyond the tipping point and come to loudly say that American good will is preferable to the teeth of American military might. Perhaps. This is the nature of the game. If you want a sure thing, bet against the New York Jets.)[/quote]

^ A little bit more than “a promise” and/or “nothing.”

Moving on:

[quote]pat wrote:
In exchange for not making a weapon for 15 years, they will have the ability to legally pursue just that after the agreement expires.[/quote]

First, different elements of the deal are subject to different timetables, with one of the strongest safeguards lasting 25 years.

Second, and much more importantly, they will not “have the ability to legally pursue just that after the agreement expires,” and any maker of such a claim is ignorant of the most basic, foundational material relevant to this thread. This because Iran is a non-nuclear weapon state under the NPT. A such, it is legally (to the fullest extent that international law exists) barred from developing nuclear weapons regardless of the JCPOA.

Pat has me blocked, so the point of this is not a fight with him. It’s for everybody else to see and understand that a guy talking out of his ass is not a good guy to whom to turn in search of complicated answers which demand at least a little bit of prior knowledge and study.

220

[quote]Bismark wrote:
Legally be able to pursue nuclear arms? What are you basing that statement on? Iran is party to the NPT, which forbids non-nuclear weapon states from pursuing atomic arms. The accession to the IAEA’s Additional Protocol will have to be permanent at the end of the JCPOA or they will face a renewed sanctions regime.[/quote]

Bastard, you beat me to it!

The answer to the question posed in your second sentence, by the way, is “nothing.”