https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/2fe6aaf4-f94a-33f9-b019-7a56fee17cec/armed-civilians-are-joining.html
Something I was talking about a while ago.
It is now the holiday season, which means its the killing season for every piece of shit with an ax to grind. If you decide to take personal responsibility for your self defense and those that rely on you, please visit the “Active Shooter” thread on the Comabt Forum, there is a lot of good information there and also in the “Situational Awareness” thread.
Regardless of how you feel about defense, please have some type of mental plan where ever you go, make sure you have workable communications, and at least a plan of escape
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Thanks for the heads-up, and thanks for your service. I thought of you and this post when I started hearing about the Ohio State incident.
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I have an evolving hypothesis on how to handle Syria. I have certainly been critical about what we should have done in the past few years, but at a loss as to what to do since Russia planted their flag next to Assad’s. But thinking in the current, I think we have an opportunity in the form of ISIS. They have territory in Syria. We can get that territory. I am not saying that’s an easy task, but stay with me. Presuming we finally pursue their defeat with the overwhelming force they deserve, rather than give that territory up we plant our flag.
Then we have leverage. Then we can challenge the Russian/ Syrian offensive from the inside rather than from the outside. I think with taking that territory from ISIS, we can engage in the kind of coercive diplomacy that just may give us more of what we want from Syria than if we mere sit there and condemn them from the Security Council. They don’t give a damn about the security council and further it gives us a basis of operations with in Syria that should give pause to Russian/ Syrian operations.
We are at war. Anybody who thinks we are not at war is deluding themselves. We need to handle it or we are going to lose significant influence which will create a power vacuum. And being that nature abhors a vacuum, evil is sure to fill it, if we do not.
This is an evolving hypothesis, but I think it would be workable provided we pursue the issue with some balls for once.
Appeasement has not worked and is not going to work, it’s time to change tactics and get tough.
Or we can just walk away, tail between our legs and let Russia/ Syria have it, in which case, what are we waiting for? Are we going to let the bodies pile up and then say “meh, you can have it, fuck it”? If we are going to give up, let’s give up now and save some lives. If we are going to fight, then let’s bring the overwhelming force necessary to end it as quickly as possible; so we can save some lives. People are dying needlessly in this ineffectual fight. I am saying let’s either fight and win, or give up now and go home. This fence sitting is the worst possible misery for everyone involved.
Kudos for outlining a scenario but allow me to play the Devil’s advocate and highlight its flaws.
First of all, let’s start with “ISIS territory” - the French during their colonial rule divided Syria into two parts - “useful Syria” (fertile coastline where Christians and Alawites lived, think ancient Phoenicia) and “useless Syria” - everywhere else, mostly desert and barren soil, where most of the poor sunnis lived. North is Kurdish territory - tribes who were on the wrong side of history tended to withdraw to the hills, hence Kurds in the north.
“ISIS territory” is mostly scattered settlements connected with slivers of territory along major roads. Hell, there’s even an ISIS enclave just across the Israeli controlled Golan heights.
And the Russians and Assad would give EVERYTHING for this scenario to happen. First of all it would be a massive PR victory - I can imagine a RT news story “the ISIS were routed when their US backers intervened and took over their territory”. Also, pretty much ISIS controlled Syria is, as the name implies, useless and would just tie up US troops garrisoning a barren desert with all the logistical difficulties of supplying their forces there.
Take a look at this excellent map Syria, I’ll explain the details - “useful Syria” is a straight line running north down from the Assad’s Alawi statelet in the North West (red), so basically a line Aleppo-Hama-Homs-Daraa
Russia and Iran are trying to eliminate the sunni al-Nusra enclave (green) and clear Aleppo thus opening the corridor towards the Kurds (yellow) and further into shia Iraq and Iran. This means Iran would have uninterrupted control over a sliver of territory from Iran proper to the Mediterranean sea and access to port facilities in Latakia and Tartus (think another port for oil exports). Iran recently confirmed over 1000 KIAs among their regular troops, which shows the extent of their involvement and how much is this important for them.
The Kurds are tacitly acquiescing to this because a) the shia Iranians are not killing them at the moment and b) the US betrayed them so many times they’ve lost count and expect that the US will always back Turkey as a NATO member in the end (also, Trump’s business partner billionaire Dogan is close to Erdogan), no matter how many socialist Kurds die fighting ISIS. They believe that Iran is on the ascendancy in the region and better jump on the bandwagon.
Turks and not blind to this Iranian efforts and their armed forces crossed into Syria, took territory (bluish) north of Al-Bab and are trying to preempt Iran’s link to the sea by cutting the Al-Tawrah-Aleppo road, taking territory from ISIS in the process and quietly integrating former ISIS fighters into the ranks of their SDF. Turks hate the Kurds so much (despite or because 10% of their population is Kurdish) that it’s virtually indescribable. Shias are a very close second.
With the land bridge to the Mediterranean and “useful Syria” in Assad’s hands, Iran and Russia are completely satisfied. They don’t care who controls “useless Syria” - ISIS, Americans, whomever… If they cared, the illogical parts of the Syria map would have been corrected a long time ago.
So if the US doesn’t want to fight Hezbollah and regular Russian troops embedded in their ranks (see video), not to mention the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, boots on the ground is not a viable scenario anymore.
“Useful Syria” is Assad’s after Aleppo falls - game over. “Useless Syria” does not matter.
The only uncertainty is the Iran-Turkey showdown up north, the continuation of the millennium and a half struggle between sunni and shias and what role will Putin play - whether he’ll cut a deal with Erdogan and betray the Iranians.
So to sum it up, a huge defeat for the US and the consequent loss of prestige - Russians completely changed the facts on the ground in one year, with military intervention on the cheap.
This is already a foregone conclusion of what was and currently is the case…
I appreciate the information and as I stated, it’s a hypothesis indicating it is not perfect by any means, but I am not hearing better ideas either.
It may be “useless” Syria, but it’s territory they want back. And if it’s not the appropriate staging ground then we need to find a better one.
Suggesting we do nothing is a non-starter. We have already tried that approach and it is an unmitigated disaster.
Pretending we are not at war is also just plain foolish. Whether we acknowledge that fact or not, war is upon us and we can fight or be overrun.
Just recently even Ash Carter has recommended not a totally dissimilar approach.
If we hope to have any leverage against Assad/ Putin we have to have something they want and pose a threat. Blathering from the UN Security Council is useless. Doing nothing is dangerous. So what do you propose we do?
Again if the answer is nothing then nothing should start now and spare the lives suffering under the presence of barrel bombs and chlorine attacks.
I would have no problem killing this guy, especially, if I could shoot both of his knee caps and elbow joints first. No matter how cold it gets, never restrict your vison in public. It s the killing time of year, as Istanbul is a sad reminder. be safe.
Refugees, huh?
What a bunch of abject scum.
They are not all scum. That’s the problem with kicking the doors down and letting large numbers in without proper vetting. Because ISIS and other scum are able to infiltrate the refugees, they make them all look bad.
But there are many truly just wanting to survive.
You cannot just let them all in. It’s been proven that terrorists use that to seek in extremists. But there are people who truly need help, for a situation we are partially responsible for. We dropped the ball on ISIS. We dropped the ball on Syria, when we blinked on the “Red Line” and let Russia in. We could have prevented a lot of this tragic situation.
I am a product of refugees and asylum. Without it I would either be dead or in a Cuban prison. So I love America, a lot.
Not all are scum, but we have to talk honestly about the fact that too many scum bags infiltrated the refugees and those assholes need to be sent back to Syria.
We can put them in a canon and shoot them over the border…
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True. To clarify, the ones of fighting age that took the easy road to chill in europe instead of staying and fighting in their home land.
Why would any other country even let them in?
Open door policies hurt both the population and the refugees.
Well, remember that courageous response the the ‘Red Line’ that obama so courageously ran away from, by negotiating the removal of chemical weapons by Russia?
Well that worked great! Syria has never been safer and the only murdered 120 civilians, with Sarin gas! Without Russian involvement, the total could have been 121! After all, the capitulation to Assad got rid of all the chemical weapons (except for sarin). That was totally worth it. We have a safe and stable Syria, after the regime practically committed genocide in Aleppo. Syria hasn’t been so stable in years. Yeah, a few died but screw them. So long as they don’t mess with Obama’s precious legacy.
At least we negotiated a cease fire and evacation today… Oh wait, that was Turkey. We didn’t do shit.
We just set the table for Assad and Russia and walked away, leaving thousands to die! But at least we don’t look like war mongers.
Hmmm, what does setting up the opposition in Syria and then abandoning them to the Assad regime with no help remind me of… Bay of Swine? Or is it pigs?
Obama has A LOT of innocent blood on his hands. He set the Syrians like bowling pins for a gigantic nuclear bowling ball and then walked away to play golf…
Pat, with all due respect this whole Syria issue has nothing to do with Obama.
Syria was being primed for a proxy war by all sides and the people who wanted Assad to go fell for this. I don’t see how you can make out Turkey to be the good guys out of all this either, negotiating a ceasefire and helping ISIS doesn’t really look too good does it.
Also, wasn’t the US arming rebels that I’m guessing intelligence knew very well could be or become part of ISIS and nobody really cared because Assad is crazy and Putin is crazy and Iran is terrorist.
We are all part of the problem and the people who suffer are the Syrians who didn’t have a political agenda.
Bullshit! He drew a ‘Red Line’ and said that if they crossed it ‘he would change his “calculus”’, which everybody understood to be a military strike against the Assad regime. With less than 12 hours to go before the attack was launched, he pulled out of it saying they reached an agreement with Russia, or all people, to remove the chemical weapons.
Well, the Russians, who were on the outside looking in at the nearly crumbled regime, did remove some, perhaps most of the chemical weapons. But clearly not all of them given the recent Sarin attack.
Once they reached this agreement, Russia then sent around a billion dollars worth of advanced weaponry to Assad, then Russia started air strikes using their own planes, then the Russian army moved in to assist the Assad regime military force. All because Obama not only balked on his own Red Line, but gave Russia a way in.
Obama’s inaction in Syria after time and time again calling for Assad’s ouster and leveling empty threats has led to this predictable disaster in Syria.
Facts don’t lie.
First of all, like I said countless times before, it’s a sunni vs. shia war that’s been raging for over 1300 ago.
The Russian deftly used US indecisiveness and filled the political vacuum with their support for the Syrian regime. The amazing thing is that Russia elevated itself back to Great power status with an operation run on a shoestring budget - couple of dozen of airplanes and a decrepit Soviet-era carrier belching out black smoke who cannot even launch planes due to constant malfunctions.
The feebleness of the Russian intervention is illustrated by the fact that they’ve had to literally cede back Palmyra to ISIS in order to concentrate on Aleppo.
The Syrian regime would have survived regardless of the Russians - the Iranian threw their weight behind Assad and his quasi-shia Alawites.
They’ve already started bragging about their decisive role in the conflict. Ominously, they’ve announced that they’ll rid Syria of “terrorists and takfirs”, which means sunni muslims. Considering sunnis made up the majority of Syria’s population before the war, things are going to get really, really, bloody.
Here’s an remarkable article from Reuters complaining that Iran intervened to seal of Mosul from all sides, thus ensuring that ISIS foot soldiers cannot escape - before that, when capturing a town a corridor would be open for ISIS terrorist to withdraw or fade away into the countryside. But Iran wants to kill them off.
Ironically, most rabid US right-wingers would be in complete agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran as the latter’s stated goal is to kill a lot of muslims. Really, A LOT.
Paradoxically, Iran killed more sunnis (civilians included) in their recent campaign in Syria and Iraq that did Israel during it’s entire existence.
Naturally, Iran’s success in causing a veritable hysteria in Saudi Arabia, with them being the major financier of ISIS. The Saudi government newspaper Al-Madina published a fascinating rant against the “Zionist State”. Amazingly, they weren’t referring to the State of Israel but to the Islamic Republic of Iran, providing as the final proof a picture of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with an actual Jew.
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Hey what about the news today…out of Mosul. They found weapons factory with literally hundreds of thousands of weapons, with components given to ISIS by Turkey.
Reminds me of when I saw video of a weapons stockpile during the Iraq war, supposedly given to the rebels by Iran…marked with UAE all over the boxes…United Arab Emirates. Go figure.
And Russia has targeted most of the rebels who want legitimate change, leaving other parts of the country under the control of ISIS and doing nothing about it. They say they are targeting terrorists, but clearly not all of them.
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The rebels we sponsored and promised support to, only to turn our backs on them and let them and the hundreds, thousands of civilians they are protecting to die.
Aleppo, will go down as one of the greatest travesties in recent history.
The people you call rebels are at least 60% ISIS or ISIS sympathisers, how can you not see that?
These are the same people you called rebels when they became Taliban, Al-Qaeda etc, you keep doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result.
If you don’t help these terrorists directly you fund them indirectly through Saudi etc
Are they? Then why are we arming them?
Regardless of what they are, our role in what became of Aleppo is a disgrace. We let the Russians in and this is what they did…