[quote]pat wrote:
[quote]Mufasa wrote:
[quote]Bambi wrote:
What would a second Obama term be like?
Surely that depends if he retains the Senate and Congress
I agree with Mufasa; I think when it comes down it, the Primaries will be quickly forgotten: Anyone but Romney will soon be Anyone But Obama. Obama, whether you think it is true or not (and ftr I do not think so) has become the face of an ‘entitlement culture’ that many Americans do not agree with. So even if Obama squeaks it (which I think personally will happen) he will still have two chambers at best neutral and at worst overtly hostile to his legislation.
I think there’s going to be a huge debate in the next 5-15 years over energy. We’re already getting to the stage where oil prices are harming the economy, and if there was a say, a 3-6month oil shock, I think there will be a huge paradigm shift in how we perceive energy and where we must get it from. I think Obama recently has trying to have it all ways. To the Republicans he wants to appear a conciliator, to the Democrats a great classical liberal hamstrung by a radical Tea-Party Fringe, to the rest of the world, a great statesman with respect for other cultures in a way bush was perceived not to have. you don’t have to agree with any of those images of Obama but I think that’s what he’s projecting. He’s going to have to define himself much more rigorously in his foreign policy (which I think as a Brit is totally indistinguisable from Bush’s) and in his domestic and fiscal policy. Is he going to focus on the economy or is he going to campaign on social issues Republicans have set the terms on for the last 30 years? In the next few years, he’s going to make some hard decisions about how far a petroleum based economy two of whose main expenditures are Social Security and Medicaid will take him. I think he’s going to make some hard decisions about spending that he’s been putting off with one eye on this election.
For sure, if he doesn’t, then the incumbent in 2016 will have to eat a real shit sandwich. But by then I think we’ll know what the GOP stands for. Will the fiscal conservatives, in the image of Barry Goldwater come through or will it be the social conservatives? Either way they’ll be raring to go and I wouldn’t put it past Obama to leave them in the thick of it.
Thoughts?[/quote]
Only two things to add, B.
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Oil is ALSO driving foreign policy…and has for some time.
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I think the battle for the “Soul” of the GOP is already going on…and what the Party truly stands for will be solidified by the Mid-Terms of 2014.
While there is ALWAYS talk about a third Party; I just don’t see one in our Lifetime in terms of being a political Force. (I think that Perot was about the closest we’ve come; and that fizzled when Perot a) got a little heat and b) actually had to coalesce people into some viable group with a platform, message, etc.)
Some bring up the fact that most voters are not Party affiliated now, and that’s true. However; they DO have thoughts and beliefs that are as varied as those you see within the GOP and the DEMS. The net result is that the forming of a politically strong 3rd party in the United States is both expensive, difficult, and almost impossible.
Mufasa[/quote]
Nah, the GOP is just one dynamic personality away from cohesion. Do you remember the pre-obama democratic party? Remember John Kerry and the era of nobody knowing what anybody stands for and all that mess. This is largely the same thing. There is no soul searching, there is searching for one person who people can identify with. The democratic party didn’t suddenly find it’s soul, or know it’s mission, or whatever. They won, that’s all that’s needed.
This election is obama’s to lose. He technically has no competition, the republican field is weak, he has a sympathetic media and a precious few successes that are coming into play at the right time.
Further, nobody really gives a fuck about market forces or what does what and why. All people care about is, is the economy good right now. If the economy is good, people credit the president, if the economy sucks, people blame the president.
Despite his best efforts, the economy is showing tiny peeks of recovery.
Further, the biggest mistake the candidates make is shunning Bush. I think this is a HUGE mistake. He can make some noise, get people talking, defend his record, and use that as to why somebody should support the GOP candidate.
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Great points, Pat…BUT…
I think that the election is the GOP’s to lose.
At the Mid-Terms, the GOP was surely smelling chum in the water for 2012, as they saw a very weakened President; both in popularity and in terms of an economy in Recession.
The economy is still fragile; oil prices are going up; the Middle East is a powder keg (as usual); and the true “engine” for the economy…housing…looks like it will take a while to recover.
IF the GOP loses the Presidency, the only ones they should be looking at are themselves.
In terms of the divide in the Party…I think that it will take an EXTREMELY charismatic person to bridge the gap between the “moderates” in the Party and the wing of the Party that is moving further and further to the right.
Mufasa
they usually bully the people that do not fit their criteria until they quit never to return