[quote]therover wrote:
meth is more lucrative.
Zephead…I don’t want to blow myself up making the shit !
Plus, if I was doing that, all the shit happening with the Depression would have me going fucking crazy on the meth. Then again, I probably could make more money. At least I can sell it as an appetite depressant !!
With the pot though, I wouldn’t care much and laugh it off !!
[/quote]
It’s ok. You only have to make it long enough to find some meth addicted peons to make it for you.
Depression huh?
I know this was not asked, but I think the chances of a depression are quite low. Recession, possible… but depression unlikely.
If we look at the “Great Depression”, (and this is in no way the complete picture, or the full story, just a few pieces of the puzzle. A few big pieces , but still just a few of the pieces,) what we see is a time when people were actually investing in the market with a 10% margin.
Then the market dropped 90%, and what happened? All those margin accounts were called. Using a today money example, imagine investing $100,000 cash as a down payment on $1,000,0000 worth of stock. Then that stock drops to $100,000. The proper margin would have been $90k, meaning you owed $810k on $100k worth of stock.
Most people did not have that money, so the margin account sold the stock, and now you had no stock, and $800K in unsecured debt. (Again a today’s money example.) Most of the people did not have that much lying around, so the banks that loaned the money were out the $800k, and what money they did received actually emptied bank accounts, leaving their balance sheets in a bad situation.
Well without government backing back then, a few banks started to fail, which started the next problem. A run on the banks. People got worried, and took their money out of the banks, and the banks did not have the cash on hand to give everyone their cash, spreading the fear even more.
Now the banks did not have the cash, and could not get an influx from the government, but at that time they could call the mortgages due, and that is exactly what they did.
Now suddenly people who were paying their mortgages on time without a problem were suddenly required to pay it off in full immediately. Which they could not do, otherwise they would not have that mortgage in the first place.
And again the people who did have cash in the bank were emptying the banks even further. Other people were losing their houses to the banks, who could not sell those houses easily because they were not giving anyone loans.
Today you cannot buy stock at 10% margins. Some people are using mortgages to buy stocks, but if the stocks fall, the loan does not suddenly come due. (Last I knew, 50% margin accounts were allowed.)
Next we have the FDIC insurance. The reason is not as much to protect peoples bank accounts as to prevent the run on banks.
And from my understanding mortgages cannot be called due just because the bank feels like it.
This puts 3 nice roadblocks in the way of this little domino effect.
But I am not psychic, (though I have convinced some that I am,) and since I can never tell when a depression is coming, then my decision is to live as though one is around the corner. In other words I won’t be doing anything different.
It is often pointed out that while fortunes were lost during the Great Depression, it was also a time when record numbers of wealthy were created. These were the intelligent, and prepared individuals.
If you don’t have a car payment, the repo man ain’t coming to your house. No mortgage? Then the bank can’t take your house.
Too often people experience the good days, and they don’t prepare for harder times. A lot of people are living paycheck to paycheck, when this statement is made, it is implied that these people are the poor. Actually most of them have decent incomes. It is surprising how many people making a 100k to 250k a year are living paycheck to paycheck.
For too many people all it takes is a hiccup in the economy, and these people run into serious problems.
The weather will point out weaknesses in the trees. A light breeze will cause weak leaves to fall. Strong wind, and weak branches fall. Strong storm, and weak trees will fall. It is the same with economics, it will expose your weaknesses, and tear apart a weak financial structure.
If your doing the right stuff, you should not have to change if the economy does. (Although you may want to structure your investment to take advantage of any situation.)
[quote]LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:
doogie wrote:
Work in a depression proof industry. Teach or nurse.
The only depression proof industry is farming. Farmers cannot afford to send their children to school. Likewise, they die early in life because they cannot afford medical care either.
Survival tip number one: consume less, save more.[/quote]
You have no fucking clue what you are talking about. Every single one of my farmers has insurance. All of their kids go to school, and you might want to tell that dying young part to any of the 12 clients of mine who are still actively farming in their 80’s and the one guy in his 90’s.
[quote]zephead4747 wrote:
GumsMagoo wrote:
on edge wrote:
GumsMagoo wrote:
Sorry Gums, ya gotta come up with another fish. Trout are cold water fish. A pond in the backyard will get too hot for them.
Shit. Any suggestions?
Coppernose bluegill, perch, walleye if you can dig deep enough. Once I graduate college and have several years of working in the real world, I plan on building a decent sized pond/lake just because.
You may not want to eat carp given the choice, however they grow to monstrous porportions and can be found anywhere. You’re also doing the environment a favor.[/quote]
‘Once I graduate college and have several years of working in the real world…’
I started the thread for guys like you, because this won’t happen. There won’t be many, if any, jobs.
Buy gold at your own peril. For the last 50 yrs the avg return is like 4% annually. And what if it goes back down? It could take yrs to come back.
A depression is very very unlikely. China is still going to grow at 7 or 8%. Feels bad because they were at 12%. India is still growing.
China slowing down will help bring down oil. This will be like a tax cut.
Economies are much more diversified now than in the 20’s and 30’s. You can’t do a fair comparison.
Now if Obama gets in and starts hiking cap gains, dividends, top rate, etc. then the recession will be much deeper and much longer.
But depression? Very unlikely.
I’m going to start a “depression survival” company and milk every one of you fear mongering motherfuckers for everything you have.
Joking or not, the fishing/hunting idea is sound. The main reason for doing so, however, has not been mentioned: physical security. You don’t want to be anywhere near cities. Huge and hungry populations will become desperate as order breaks down. That’s a big reason why people who can afford to are moving to places like Aspen, away from decaying and dangerous cities (and suburbs).
Doogie is right about teaching and nursing. Only two types of employment increased during the Great Depression of the 1930’s: college teachers and gas station attendants. Some professions stayed even (like doctors and high school teaching) while most dropped like flies. If you work in something like sales or marketing, say ‘adios’ to employment.
[quote]zephead4747 wrote:
SteelyD wrote:
zephead4747 wrote:
You may not want to eat carp given the choice, however they grow to monstrous porportions and can be found anywhere. You’re also doing the environment a favor.
re: Environment
How’s that? (not to hijack thread-- sorry)
they root the ground in lakes and rivers up preventing plant matter from growing. Plant matter is typically the bottom of the food chain. Killing it off has disaterous effects on the ecosystem.[/quote]
Wait, so what you just said is, to ‘do the environment a favor’ (ie protect it?), dont eat the carp so they can root the ground and prevent plant matter from growing (ie ‘kill… it off’)that fuels the food chain…?
I’m missing something here. Sorry, just trying to follow this…
[quote]rainjack wrote:
I’m going to start a “depression survival” company and milk every one of you fear mongering motherfuckers for everything you have.
[/quote]
Sorry, the Federal Gov’t already has a head start on you.
[quote]rainjack wrote:
I’m going to start a “depression survival” company and milk every one of you fear mongering motherfuckers for everything you have.
[/quote]
Economic depressions have been a fact of life since human beings came to be. The fruits in the jungle disappeared so we had to move. The crops failed due to drought or flooding and we had to move. Governments debased the money supply so the Huns invaded. Depressions are NOT new. We haven’t had one now for 68 years. Has our bungling and inept government managed to repeal laws of nature and economics?
We are 10 trillion in debt and that’s just what’s on the books. The government is debasing the currency by tens of billions per day, just to try and fill an expanding ‘black hole’.
Just as a farmer can recognize a drought, I can recognize the simple facts in front of me. Just like the farmer, I hope it rains tomorrow. I hope all the debts and bankruptcies disappear. How likely is that?
If that makes me a ‘fear mongering motherfucker’, then fine. You won’t be prepared, I am. Maybe I’ll need a CPA in the future.
[quote]rainjack wrote:
LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:
doogie wrote:
Work in a depression proof industry. Teach or nurse.
The only depression proof industry is farming. Farmers cannot afford to send their children to school. Likewise, they die early in life because they cannot afford medical care either.
Survival tip number one: consume less, save more.
You have no fucking clue what you are talking about. Every single one of my farmers has insurance. All of their kids go to school, and you might want to tell that dying young part to any of the 12 clients of mine who are still actively farming in their 80’s and the one guy in his 90’s.
[/quote]
They aren’t farming in a depression yet though are they? Prices will collapse because government cannot keep banks propped up with bailouts forever.
Family farmers will wither and die and you will lose your shirt. Find some new clientèle.
[quote]The Mage wrote:
Depression huh?
I know this was not asked, but I think the chances of a depression are quite low. Recession, possible… but depression unlikely.[/quote]
Semantics. Just because the government defined the term depression away does not change what they essentially are. How long do you think the government can continue to keep propping prices up by bailing out financial institutions?
You need to get a better understanding of what caused the depression.
[quote]rainjack wrote:
I’m going to start a “depression survival” company and milk every one of you fear mongering motherfuckers for everything you have.
[/quote]
I will invest in your venture.
Depression Mitigation
Michael S. Rozeff
The global economy is headed downwards. Falling stock markets, failing banks, and rising unemployment all attest to that fact. So far, some very large failures have occurred in the United States and in Europe. Can other regions be far behind? The signs of Great Depression II are not favorable. Already people are growing fearful and joking about primitive means of survival in the expectation that the vast industrial and trade system upon which we all depend will break down.
[quote]The Mage wrote:
Depression huh?
I know this was not asked, but I think the chances of a depression are quite low. Recession, possible… but depression unlikely.
If we look at the “Great Depression”, (and this is in no way the complete picture, or the full story, just a few pieces of the puzzle. A few big pieces , but still just a few of the pieces,) what we see is a time when people were actually investing in the market with a 10% margin.
Then the market dropped 90%, and what happened? All those margin accounts were called. Using a today money example, imagine investing $100,000 cash as a down payment on $1,000,0000 worth of stock. Then that stock drops to $100,000. The proper margin would have been $90k, meaning you owed $810k on $100k worth of stock.
Most people did not have that money, so the margin account sold the stock, and now you had no stock, and $800K in unsecured debt. (Again a today’s money example.) Most of the people did not have that much lying around, so the banks that loaned the money were out the $800k, and what money they did received actually emptied bank accounts, leaving their balance sheets in a bad situation.
Well without government backing back then, a few banks started to fail, which started the next problem. A run on the banks. People got worried, and took their money out of the banks, and the banks did not have the cash on hand to give everyone their cash, spreading the fear even more.
Now the banks did not have the cash, and could not get an influx from the government, but at that time they could call the mortgages due, and that is exactly what they did.
Now suddenly people who were paying their mortgages on time without a problem were suddenly required to pay it off in full immediately. Which they could not do, otherwise they would not have that mortgage in the first place.
And again the people who did have cash in the bank were emptying the banks even further. Other people were losing their houses to the banks, who could not sell those houses easily because they were not giving anyone loans.
Today you cannot buy stock at 10% margins. Some people are using mortgages to buy stocks, but if the stocks fall, the loan does not suddenly come due. (Last I knew, 50% margin accounts were allowed.)
Next we have the FDIC insurance. The reason is not as much to protect peoples bank accounts as to prevent the run on banks.
And from my understanding mortgages cannot be called due just because the bank feels like it.
This puts 3 nice roadblocks in the way of this little domino effect.
But I am not psychic, (though I have convinced some that I am,) and since I can never tell when a depression is coming, then my decision is to live as though one is around the corner. In other words I won’t be doing anything different.
It is often pointed out that while fortunes were lost during the Great Depression, it was also a time when record numbers of wealthy were created. These were the intelligent, and prepared individuals.
If you don’t have a car payment, the repo man ain’t coming to your house. No mortgage? Then the bank can’t take your house.
Too often people experience the good days, and they don’t prepare for harder times. A lot of people are living paycheck to paycheck, when this statement is made, it is implied that these people are the poor. Actually most of them have decent incomes. It is surprising how many people making a 100k to 250k a year are living paycheck to paycheck.
For too many people all it takes is a hiccup in the economy, and these people run into serious problems.
The weather will point out weaknesses in the trees. A light breeze will cause weak leaves to fall. Strong wind, and weak branches fall. Strong storm, and weak trees will fall. It is the same with economics, it will expose your weaknesses, and tear apart a weak financial structure.
If your doing the right stuff, you should not have to change if the economy does. (Although you may want to structure your investment to take advantage of any situation.)
[/quote]
Good post. Actually the high margin amounts are being used again today but in the credit markets. The I-Banks were levered 30-40 times on the dollar buying up MBS’s and CDO’s and as their balance sheets exploded (Thanks to mark to market accounting) the banks loaned even more money to these hedge funds and I-Banks. As the value of these instruments began to fall due to the subprime component fear took over the market and Mark to Market Accounting acted in reverse to destroy the value of these instruments practically overnight. The banks were burned badly and have lost most of their capital. The insurance that was purchased (AIG) to protect the investments was far too inadaquate and AIG was forced to be nationalized or declare bankruptcy. It’s worth noting that not only the banks hold these instruments but hedge funds, state pension funds, massive companies like GE have been burned badly and are now begging for cash as the credit markets are becoming closed even to this behemoth.
The margin is destroying the banking system all over again except it’s not the stock market this time around that was in a bubble but the credit markets.
The biggest difference between then and now is the consumer along with the govt. is highly debt burdened. We are at the bottom of the levered chain so when the top goes like a domino cascade it will work it’s way all the way down.
I don’t think we’ll enter a depression either but only because of the govt. intervention and actions by the Federal Reserve that have taken place recently.
[quote]SteelyD wrote:
I’ve just been re-reading Grapes of Wrath (Steinbeck) for, like, the 30th time.
I’ve been practicing sucking teat on the ol’ lady.[/quote]
LOL.
[quote]SteelyD wrote:
zephead4747 wrote:
SteelyD wrote:
zephead4747 wrote:
You may not want to eat carp given the choice, however they grow to monstrous porportions and can be found anywhere. You’re also doing the environment a favor.
re: Environment
How’s that? (not to hijack thread-- sorry)
they root the ground in lakes and rivers up preventing plant matter from growing. Plant matter is typically the bottom of the food chain. Killing it off has disaterous effects on the ecosystem.
Wait, so what you just said is, to ‘do the environment a favor’ (ie protect it?), dont eat the carp so they can root the ground and prevent plant matter from growing (ie ‘kill… it off’)that fuels the food chain…?
I’m missing something here. Sorry, just trying to follow this…
[/quote]
I said you may not want to eat them normally, because outside of the asian food markets, people view them as a trash fish. If you have to carp are a large edible fish. If you don’t need to eat them. Stick a knife in them and leave the body to return nutrients back to the environment.
Rabbits are better than chickens.
[quote]zephead4747 wrote:
SteelyD wrote:
zephead4747 wrote:
SteelyD wrote:
zephead4747 wrote:
You may not want to eat carp given the choice, however they grow to monstrous porportions and can be found anywhere. You’re also doing the environment a favor.
re: Environment
How’s that? (not to hijack thread-- sorry)
they root the ground in lakes and rivers up preventing plant matter from growing. Plant matter is typically the bottom of the food chain. Killing it off has disaterous effects on the ecosystem.
Wait, so what you just said is, to ‘do the environment a favor’ (ie protect it?), dont eat the carp so they can root the ground and prevent plant matter from growing (ie ‘kill… it off’)that fuels the food chain…?
I’m missing something here. Sorry, just trying to follow this…
I said you may not want to eat them normally, because outside of the asian food markets, people view them as a trash fish. If you have to carp are a large edible fish. If you don’t need to eat them. Stick a knife in them and leave the body to return nutrients back to the environment.[/quote]
I would never eat one but they are easy to farm. You could probably pickle them or smoke them. They are bottom feeders so the pond should stay pretty clean.