[quote]cwill1973 wrote:
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
[quote]cwill1973 wrote:
Can anyone point me in the direction of any predicted climatic catastrophes that have occurred as a result of global warming, cooling, or change as predicted anytime in the last 40 years?[/quote]
What’s the point? When I tell you that scientists had predicted massive flooding along the Yangtze River a few decades ago (which ended up happening in 1998), you’ll deny any link between that event and climate change.
The flooding was believed to be caused by El Nino which have been occurring as long as we have had the ability to record and measure them which was before the advent of fossil fuels. This river periodically floods. Verdict: Not caused by human activity.
You’ll do the same when I tell you that scientists predicted that climate change would lead to severe droughts and wildfires (which happened in Florida in 1998 as well and is happening right now in California), you’ll deny the connection.
52% of drought conditions are explained by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Once again El Nino and La Nina have an effect too. The Dust Bowl, the worst in recorded US history, had nothing to do with AGW. Two severe megadroughts in CA happened in 840 AD and in 1140 AD and lasted 240 and 180 years respectively. Wildfires have more to do with improper mitigation of forests than anything else and are also part of the natural life cycle for many types of trees. Wildfires occurred long before the religion of AGW was started. Verdict: Humans have a minimal effect on length and severity of droughts.
You’ll further deny any connection when I tell you that many scientists have argued for years that one of the impacts of climate change is also unseasonably cold weather in certain areas (which happened across most of the north/eastern part of the country this year).
The earth has been cooling and warming for millennia and you have not provided a single study that shows a causation effect. Predicting AGW will cause cold weather is called “hedging your bet” after the catastrophic warming predictions fell flat on their face.
And when I tell you that we will suffer extremely severe El Nino events (as has been predicted in the past and came to fruition in 1997-98 and is most likely going to occur next winter as well) you’ll just call bullshit.
El Nino’s have been happening long before the widespread use of fossil fuels.
And you’ll say the same thing when I tell you that scientists have been predicting for years that oceanic currents, such as the oceanic conveyor belt that brings warm weather from the Gulf of Mexico up the eastern seaboard and into western Europe, will destabilize as precipitation increases. You’ll simply ignore the fact that there is evidence that just such a thing is happening with some currents that come out of the Indian Ocean.
The Gulf Stream has stopped before including once around 8,000 years ago which caused 100 years of cooling and has done so many times before.
So why ask for information that you know will not change your mind on the issue? The info you ask for is out there.
Since it’s apparently time to start asking questions instead of answering them, why don’t I take a turn? How about you show me a prediction from a credible scientist who argued that shit like the Gulf Stream reversing would undoubtedly happen by now? Not scientists who said that IF certain conditions occur, then the Gulf Stream MIGHT change direction in a few decades. I want some links to these failed predictions from credible scientists.[/quote]
The fact is the climate changes all the time. It’s a load of crap to say events that have been occurring for the entire life of the planet are now caused by human activity without any proof these events would not have occurred otherwise.
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The fact is that the climate also has the propensity for change in response to human inputs. The degree to which we are responsible for this is debatable, but there is no debate as to whether or not we are contributing to this on some level.
You’re absolutely right that these events have occurred to varying degrees. However, that only further strengthens the point that human activity can increase the effects of climate change. These events have occurred forever, but the very recent addition of human activity can throw this cycle off. We should be vigilant regarding those increases in changes. If we are unprepared for even small changes, there will be consequences of some sort.
And there is a middle ground between insignificant change and catastrophic change. Moderate changes will still require some degree of vigilance. The fact is that if we continue to increase our carbon emissions and so forth, we must make preparations commensurate with the increased risk we may face. Just because the risks are most likely not immediately catastrophic in nature does not mean that there is no risk at all.
Distinctions. They’re important.
