Flu is something less serious from a health perspective, as well as FAAAAAR less serious from a social impact perspective. And that is obvious.
One could probably make a good argument that intentionally spreading CV by going out and about while knowingly positive has national security impacts as well.
If it applies to churches and abortion protests (that were practicing social distancing), I’m sure political gatherings and protests are covered as well.
Every year hundreds of thousands of people are hospitalized and tens of thousands die from the flu, 2017-2018 seem particularly bad (810k hospitalized, 60k dead), so I’m not sure that’s true.
Because there’s a far greater social impact from COVID19 or we created a far greater impact through our reaction?
I’m happy to hear it. National security is the way to my heart…
You should read up a little on CV if you think it is on par with the flu. That part isn’t in dispute at all. Maybe you’re just being a contrarian, idk.
Society voluntarily created the large social impact… Due to the danger posed by the virus. If society simply allowed the virus to run freely there would have been a massive societal impact as well (most believe far larger than current).
Haha, I think you can see the connection to national security some would make. That’s a rabbithole though.
I think people believe, from the limited data and early projections, that CV is not on par with the flu and it might not be.
I’m just comparing the data at a very high level. The last estimate I saw was 60k deaths by August. That’s a somewhat bad flu season. I no longer see hospitalizations for comparison. The only thing that seems worse on the surface to me is that CV has been much more condensed and obviously we have no protection against it like we do some strains of the flu.
Maybe. The virus is dangerous that much is obvious. How dangerous is still up for debate, imo. A debate that will never end I imagine.
Maybe. Not the hill I’m dying on, though, lol.
With a near full societal shutdown and all hands on deck healthcare response from the world, we are still looking at that many deaths during what should be low season for respiritory viruses.
Think about that. Yeah, its a whole lot worse than the flu. And, it is in addition to the flu.
Well, these are still just estimates and I think we’re going to see those numbers continue to drop.
Also, a lot of people are arguing the shut downs were too late and the damage was already done. I don’t necessarily agree with that, but that is an argument I’ve read (mostly trying to pin everything on Trump).
You’d have to define worse. 60k dead seems pretty bad, but we accept that as the norm.
That’s true; although, flu hospitalizations/deaths should be way down, right?
Yes. A pipeline that will be built on my tribe’s land has been in the works for a while now. We’ve had protests regarding pipelines before (some became very well known), not so much because they’re oil pipelines, more because of where they’re being laid. Anyway, with the one that’s going down now, construction has started months ahead of schedule because word made it around that any and all protestors will be arrested.
A good example of how every decision has unintended consequences with potentially lasting effects.
Flu hospitalization/deaths remain unaffected… Which is why healthcare capacity is maxed out or over capacity. CV is in addition to all the normal need for hospitalization. And when healthcare is over capacity, people don’t receive life saving care and people who would otherwise be saved, end up dieing.
Trump’s an ignorant, egotistical, selfish man. But I don’t think he did a poor job of handling the crisis. Judging on hindsight is unfair.
I am afraid ignorant people will look at the final numbers and conclude we overreacted, without taking into account that our societal reaction caused a huge reduction in the numbers. This crisis needs a post mortem to see what worked and what didn’t, so we know what to do in the future.
Surely social distancing, hand washing, etc… is reducing flu cases, right?
Agreed.
Agreed.
Agreed.
Good call. You’re right, we should see a reduction in all communicable viruses/diseases.
Nice social distancing
Those mass graves in New York are very upsetting. God rest their souls.
In some ways, it’s even sadder than it seems.
"In a series of tweets and later at a press conference, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio acknowledged that the number of burials on the island has increased, but said the only people being buried there are those who have not been claimed by a family member or loved one.
“It’s a sad topic. Imagine anyone who passes away and there’s no one there to claim the body. This has been the truth for generations,” de Blasio said.
The mayor stressed that even the most recent burials on the island are not necessarily always related to the pandemic.“These are people who no one after a period of time has claimed them, and not just COVID victims, but victims of all diseases, all reasons for fatality,” de Blasio said. “So because there’s just been unfortunately more people passing away, including those who are not claimed by any family, that’s what’s been happening at Hart Island. But that’s the only thing that’s been happening at Hart Island.”
I think some are misinterpreting the pictures and it’s playing into the general hysteria.
As an aside, the model I most closely follow shows mass resource use in NY having peaked 2 days ago (where resources are defined as hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators) and deaths peaked yesterday.
60K isn’t the norm. 2018-19 was 34K, 2017-18 was 61 - particularly bad, but then the preceding years were 38K, 22K, 51K, 37K, 42K, 12K, 36K. Averaging out to 37K, or just over half of what you’re saying is the norm. Now, let’s consider the fact that we know a fuckload about the flu, and we have flu vaccines that are fairly effective out. There are already, and have already been for some time, a TON of safeguards for us regarding the flu. This is hitting in addition to the flu, and the fact that the hospitals are so overloaded in major cities is proof that it’s not just business as usual. If this weren’t a big deal, we would have enough ventilators, medical staff, and facilities to handle this. We don’t.
We don’t know enough to say, 100%, this is worse than the flu - but there is a virtually unanimous conclusion in the medical community that this is worse than the flu. The flu wasn’t killing 800 people a day in New York City. @Dr_Pangloss is also repeatedly referring to models that will obviously show amounts of hospitalizations and deaths declining after a peak (like every medical professional talking about this predicted), but those hundreds and hundreds of people were dying every day IN THE MIDDLE OF A QUARANTINE. With a stay-at-home order in effect, social distancing, and a near-total lockdown. You can’t look at death figures leveling off during EXTREME measures to control the spread and then say “welp, that’s how bad it is.” No, that’s how bad it is with everything that we’ve done already.
Forgive me if I sound aggravated, my family are in New York, and I have 3 friends who are nurses at major hospitals in NYC, all of whom I’ve been in contact with, and this isn’t flu season for them, or for anyone in a hot spot right now. This shit was bad enough to get Trump to shut down the economy, and keep it shut down. That should be proof enough for anyone.
I didn’t say it was the norm… I said 60k is a “particularly bad” flu season.
Time will tell. The models keep adjusting down. Something can certainly change and we see total death increase.
My understanding is that the models take this into account.
It’s understandable. NY has been hit hard and relatively quickly.
I see now where you said that, I was referring to the former quote, though. No worries.
I could have worded it better. I just meant when we have a bad flu seasons we accept it as normal or within the normal range. We just qualify it by saying it’s a “bad” season.
