I’m of the belief that basic materials related stocks will lead any meaningful market recovery.
Stocks in those sectors I am currently watching:
POT
MON
RIG
PBR
DO
If you’re nimble enough I like the ultralong ETF’s as trading vehicles.
DDM, SSO, etc…
[quote]bdog527 wrote:
I’m of the belief that basic materials related stocks will lead any meaningful market recovery.
Stocks in those sectors I am currently watching:
POT
.[/quote]
Holy shit, I can’t buy Potash! That puppies got no support until about 25.
I didn’t find any no brainers in the food industry. CQB and FDP are getting hit pretty hard and I can see them benefiting from falling oil prices. They will be able to ship fruit more cheaply, but their charts are crappy.
Heinz and Kellogg have nice charts but they are barely down on todays trading.
They can fall to zero if you want to get technical.
[quote]on edge wrote:
bdog527 wrote:
I’m of the belief that basic materials related stocks will lead any meaningful market recovery.
Stocks in those sectors I am currently watching:
POT
.
Holy shit, I can’t buy Potash! That puppies got no support until about 25.
I didn’t find any no brainers in the food industry. CQB and FDP are getting hit pretty hard and I can see them benefiting from falling oil prices. They will be able to ship fruit more cheaply, but their charts are crappy.
Heinz and Kellogg have nice charts but they are barely down on todays trading.[/quote]
Good, because POT is not a buy right here. If I thought POT was a buy I would’ve wrote:
Stocks I’m currently buying.
Clear?
Banks are collapsing in Germany, Ireland, Greece, and the contagion is spreading. As banks in the USA and Europe collapse, this will cause Arabs and Chinese to pull out their money.
As the Great Depression of 2008 gets into full gear…
Stay away from POT and all the ag names. They ran like we just invented food last year. A lot of HF’s and pension funds got into them and are now still selling their holdings.
I like RIG, I know the all issues with oil prices but on a valuation basis this is a great value play. And hey let’s face reality even if oil falls to $50 we are still going to have to drill for it.
If you are looking for someone who will do well from falling oil prices look at DOW.
Right now I am sticking with NVS PM and RIG on the long side. I am hedged with SDS and GM puts.
Just remember hedging is more important than diversifying now. That is unless you have a 10+ year holding period and you can stomach 20% drops.
Speaking of things falling, and slightly off topic, but I had around 12k in mutual funds that has dropped 1500 as of late. I’m not really keen on markets, would people here throw in another 5k at this mutual fund now that it is down to makeup for some of the losses, or pull it out? I’m a bit worried b/c my original plan was to leave it in for at least 10 yrs, but I’m gonna have to take it out in about 9 months, but right now I do have a few k I can put in for short term…it’s an rbc fund, a
(live in canada).
If you need the $ in 9 months you should not be in the market. Get a 4% cd and call it a day.
I agree. I am not in it yet, but GE will be a player in a conservation / alternative fuel economy.
[quote]bdog527 wrote:
on edge wrote:
bdog527 wrote:
I’m of the belief that basic materials related stocks will lead any meaningful market recovery.
Stocks in those sectors I am currently watching:
POT
.
Holy shit, I can’t buy Potash! That puppies got no support until about 25.
I didn’t find any no brainers in the food industry. CQB and FDP are getting hit pretty hard and I can see them benefiting from falling oil prices. They will be able to ship fruit more cheaply, but their charts are crappy.
Heinz and Kellogg have nice charts but they are barely down on todays trading.
Good, because POT is not a buy right here. If I thought POT was a buy I would’ve wrote:
Stocks I’m currently buying.
Clear?
[/quote]
Sorry, I wasn’t disrespecting you or anything. I was just saying that thing could still fall a long way. I think I’m going to watch it too… with a bag of popcorn and a beverage.
[quote]pat wrote:
They can fall to zero if you want to get technical.[/quote]
Sorry, you’re too slow, I beat you to it.
The stock market is still way too high. The historical average Price-to-Earnings ratio is 15 or so. The PE is currently around 20. Even just returning to its average gives a Dow of 7500 and an S&P of 750 (approx). Those numbers are for AVERAGE times…are these times average?
A good target for the Dow, for beginning to buy, would be 7000 or lower. These stocks are still just plain overvalued despite the drops.
[quote]DB297 wrote:
If you need the $ in 9 months you should not be in the market. Get a 4% cd and call it a day. [/quote]
ya decided to go that route, put it in my high interest e-savings account. At least that is guaranteed 2.75%
NOWHERE near done dropping.
The bear market will last for a loooong time now. I would start buying rabidly when the DOW gets close to 2000.
And by the way
October Surprise is Coming!!! beware!!!
You heard it from me first. IF you’re holding assets, get the CERTIFICATES from your brokers before the death drop starts.
Trib has spoken.
[quote]on edge wrote:
bdog527 wrote:
on edge wrote:
bdog527 wrote:
I’m of the belief that basic materials related stocks will lead any meaningful market recovery.
Stocks in those sectors I am currently watching:
POT
.
Holy shit, I can’t buy Potash! That puppies got no support until about 25.
I didn’t find any no brainers in the food industry. CQB and FDP are getting hit pretty hard and I can see them benefiting from falling oil prices. They will be able to ship fruit more cheaply, but their charts are crappy.
Heinz and Kellogg have nice charts but they are barely down on todays trading.
Good, because POT is not a buy right here. If I thought POT was a buy I would’ve wrote:
Stocks I’m currently buying.
Clear?
Sorry, I wasn’t disrespecting you or anything. I was just saying that thing could still fall a long way. I think I’m going to watch it too… with a bag of popcorn and a beverage.[/quote]
No need to apologize. I wasn’t upset, just wanted to be clear that I was not recommending anything as a buy, especially Potash. I am keeping a close eye on it as it will become a great buy at some point as funds blow out of it.
Crazy close huh? I was hoping for a nasty close on the lows to get long but it rallied on weak volume at the end of the day I assume on rumuors/hope of a global rate cut which hasn’t materialized yet outside of australia. Maybe today will be the day. I have a feeling today is going to be a crazy day up or down.
I’m going to be buying the double long ETF’s for a trade when that moment happens.
Good luck!
Out of RIG already. Bought at 85.90 and mt traling stop hit at 88.56. I’ll take 3% in a few trading hours. No need to be greedy here.
A few points not many people are talking about:
The fed will buy comm paper. This is very good news for stocks
The fed can inject money directly into companies. Also very good.
IRS rules on bank acquisitions have been changed to make it much more attractive (at least from a tax standpoint) for banks to acquire each other. Once again bullish for stocks.
I still think we go lower but the foundation for a bottom is being put in and i haven’t been able to say that for a long time.
I still won’t rush out and buy but I am somwhat more bullish. I do think we need a down 1,000 point day on the dow and need to see the vix hit 70 to signal a true bottom.
I’m almost all cash now. Just holding NVS and GM puts but looking hard at a long on MCD.
One thing that can F my theory is the dollar. I know everyone is sayng the fed has an infinite balance sheet bbut do they really??? If you are long in a moojor way hold some gold just in case we have a run on the dollar.
[quote]tribunaldude wrote:
NOWHERE near done dropping.
The bear market will last for a loooong time now. I would start buying rabidly when the DOW gets close to 2000.
And by the way
October Surprise is Coming!!! beware!!!
You heard it from me first. IF you’re holding assets, get the CERTIFICATES from your brokers before the death drop starts.
Trib has spoken.[/quote]
If earnings fall to, say, $300 per share, and the PE is 10 (which would be very low by historical standards), then a 3000 dow in a possibility, albeit a small one. Usuallt earnings and PE become eccentric in panics and bubbles.
The PE of some Chinese stocks was 70, 80, even 100 before its collapse.