How Far Can Stocks Fall?

Can’t argue about C. I bought a bit 2 weeks ago when thee bailout was first talked about but got out last Friday. I enjoy being able to sleep and C was preventing that. I wish I could short them b/c short C long WFC I think would be a great pair trade.

C still has a small gap to fill back to 17.40 but they are no longer trading on technicals or fundementals, just pure fear. I have a feeling Pandit might be out soon and the company broken up just like what is going on at AIG.

The S&P is making lower lows, even at 1050 don’t try to catch the falling knife. We still have a lot of bad news to work through thhe system. Just wait till a state is forced to file ch 11.

[quote]rainjack wrote:
DB297 wrote:
Stop paying attention to the equity markets. When the credit markets begin to ease then you can invest. Otherwise you have to be a trader and very fast.

LIBOR is above 4%, that is insane. Credit spreads are at historicly high levles. States are now asking for billions just to pay their teachers, police etc. because the commerical paper market is cllosed.

Like I said don’t invest now but if you have to have some money in be a trader and learn too hedge. Right now I am long NVS, PM and WMT while holding SRS (2x short the S&P)and GM puts and having a good day.

However there is no way I would hold any position over the weekend. We can easily see a 50bps rate cut over the weekend or we can see a major banckruptcy.

Whoever said to invest in GE I have to disagree with. Buffett has perpetually preferred shares with a 10% yield and warrant which are essentially $22 call options.

He has a much better deal than you, he is getting $300M in cash per year for that investment and in the $ options. When they do their common stock secondary they are going to dilute all current holders.

Also I find it strange a AAA company is paying loan shark terms to raise capital they allegedly do not need.

I can’t defend the 10% - but once the credit market eases up, GE will come back strong.

But what the hell are you talking about call options? They are warrants exercisable at 22.25.

That’s the fun part about the stock market. Some folks see a bad thing, others see a good thing.

I’m glad there are more people think badly of GE right now. It makes dollar cost averaging much more powerful.
[/quote]

Warrants exercisable at 22.25 are at the end of the day 22.25 calls without an exp date.

I do wish you luck though, if GE is up that means the global econ is improving.

Agreed about the falling knife. These are indeed interesting times.

[quote]DB297 wrote:
Warrants exercisable at 22.25 are at the end of the day 22.25 calls without an exp date. [/quote]

But doesn’t that show a certain faith in the company on the part of Buffet?

He’s evidently never going to exercise those warrants until the price is significantly above the exercise price.

According to folks like you, that may never happen.

Anyhow, from your posting - I can tell you are a speculator. I have never recommended GE as a good stock for you guys.

As I have said at least once before, GE is going to be a very long term investment. 20 - 30 years.

If you are going to day trade, swing trade, or take any other short term speculative position - GE is not for you. At the same time, your advice is only good for other speculators.

I am not one of those guys.

[quote]rainjack wrote:
DB297 wrote:
Warrants exercisable at 22.25 are at the end of the day 22.25 calls without an exp date.

But doesn’t that show a certain faith in the company on the part of Buffet?

He’s evidently never going to exercise those warrants until the price is significantly above the exercise price.

According to folks like you, that may never happen.

Anyhow, from your posting - I can tell you are a speculator. I have never recommended GE as a good stock for you guys.

As I have said at least once before, GE is going to be a very long term investment. 20 - 30 years.

If you are going to day trade, swing trade, or take any other short term speculative position - GE is not for you. At the same time, your advice is only good for other speculators.

I am not one of those guys.

[/quote]

I agree 100%. If you are going to hold for 20-30 years you can�??t go wrong with the 5%+ dividend and solid balance sheet they have.

My avg holding time is 2 weeks to 3 months so I wouldn�??t touch GE here but like I said for someone like you with a long term outlook I am sure it will work. They do have some products w/ great potential (wind power, water treatment etc) and when the global slowdown is over they stand to profit very nicely.

If you like GE also check out DOW at these levels, very similar story to GE and they can even work for a shorter term play. When oil was at the highs of a few months ago the implemented 2 rounds of price increases.

Now with oil below $100 they have not taken the increases back so I am looking for them to beat earnings in a big way. Also on the long term side you get a great balance sheet and yield.

After seeing what happened after the bailout passed, can you guys imagine what would have happened if it was voted down???

Btw, nice posts, DB297. It sounds like you know your shit. I’m not as smart as you. I’m long Wells Fargo, NHI and SPY over the weekend. I bought Wells a couple of days ago and the other two today.

It looks to me like the S&P 500 is near the bottom end of it’s trading channel so I expect a snap back rally very soon. I hope I’m right because, like you, I hate not sleeping.

Yeah that was an ugly close. We are set to be clown raped or spring higher next week. A global coordinated rate cut could short squeeze the markets and send them screaming higher or a major bankruptcy could spark a crash. I’m very content sitting in cash for the time being.

I’m a big fan of SRS. The Commercial Real Estate market is the next victim. So over valued.

DB and on edge: I thought you two may be interested in reading this legal opinion on the Wachovia/Wells Fargo deal. Seems like it doesn’t have a chance in hell of getting done.

"Conclusion first, always: Citigroup has a binding contract which will prevent the sale/merger of Wachovia to Wells Fargo, regardless of the Wells Fargo deal�??s economic merits. The only way for Wachovia to get out of that agreement with Citigroup will be for Wachovia�??s parent company to file a Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Anyone who is selling Citigroup stock based on this situation should think twice. Anyone who is buying Wachovia stock based upon Wells Fargo�??s bid is very, very foolish. Anyone who is buying Wells Fargo�??s stock based upon Wachovia�??s appearance of agreement to sell/merge itself with Wells Fargo is equally foolish.

To preface my comments on the contract between Wachovia and Citigroup, and my comments on the conduct of Wells Fargo, let me say that:

(A) I am a New Yorker and therefore I hate Citigroup as a matter of birth obligation and

(B) I have dealt with Wells Fargo many times and I hate them equally, based upon their conduct.

With those facts disclosed, I make the following comment on this situation based on 30 years of going to court to attack or defend the sorts of conduct exhibited by Wachovia and Wells Fargo today. The people in the financial media writing about the situation between the three banks are simply clueless about what will happen in a New York court, which Wachovia has agreed is the only location where a court has jurisdiction over this matter.

Last Monday morning, Wachovia�??s senior management did not sign a binding contract to sell selected assets to Citigroup. That binding contract was supposed to be negotiated, written and signed on or before October 6, 2008.

However, Wachovia�??s senior managment DID SIGN a binding contract which some people call an �??exclusivity agreement�??. The binding exclusivity agreement is crystal clear. You can read it for yourself at the Wall Street Journal�??s website:

http://online.wsj.com/public/r�?�..nt2008.pdf

The binding exclusivity agreement is a masterpiece of legal drafting, from Citigroup�??s point of view. Print it and save it for your form files.

The binding exclusivity agreement�??s wording is perfect from a legal point of view, in terms of Citigroup being able to get an injunction against any merger or sale of Wachovia, or any significant part thereof, into any entity other that Citigroup. The binding exclusivity agreement contains the four key paragraphs which will allow Citigroup to stop a merger or sale of Wachovia to Wells Fargo:

  1. A very detailed description of conduct by Wachovia which is prohibited, i.e. making any deal with anyone other than Citigroup.

  2. A recitation by Wachovia that damages payable to Citigroup (for breach of contract) are an inadequate remedy to protect Citigroup from losses if the agreement is breached. That is the �??magic legal language�?? to entitle Citigroup to a temporary restraining order, preliminary injunction and permanent injunction to stop the sale or merger of Wachovia into Wells Fargo.

  3. An acknowledgment that Citigroup is entitled to the remedy of �??specific performance�??, meaning that it can force the cancellation of the Wachovia-Wells Fargo contract.

  4. A paragraph reciting that New York law applies to the enforcement of the contract and reciting that the only court with jurisdiction over Wachovia is the federal or state court in Manhattan. Specifically, Wachovia waived the right to remove any litigation with Citigroup to any other court.

As a result, the comments printed in today�??s online Wall Street Journal from the unnamed source, that �??the Wachovia Directors were obligated under their fiduciary duty to shareholders to accept Wells Fargo�??s higher offer, even though that leaves Wachovia legally vulnerable�?? are the m@r@nic babblings of a person who is not a lawyer, and who has never seen the inside of a court room on an injunctive relief hearing.

The fiduciary duty of Wachovia�??s officers and directors existed on Sunday night and in the wee hours of Saturday morning. However, once that exclusivity agreement was signed, the sole remedy of the shareholders for any breach of fiduciary duty became a lawsuit against the officers and directors. Under well established case law, Wachovia�??s own officers and directors cannot use their own breach of fiduciary duty as a defense to the issuance of a TRO/injunction against any Wachovia/Wells Fargo merger or sale, nor can they use their own breach of fiduciary duty to prevent enforcement of the exclusivity agreement by Citigroup. Similarly that breach of fiduciary duty cannot be used by Wells Fargo as a sword to invalidate the exclusivity agreement or to defend its own tortious conduct in interfering with Citigroup�??s rights under the exclusivity agreement.

Proving, once again, that Wells Fargo�??s senior management are presumptuous scum not to be trusted, ever, the Wall Street Journal�??s online article today contained the following text: �??We think that this deal is solid,�?? said Wells Fargo Chairman Richard Kovacevich. �??We are not aware of any merger agreement that has been consummated at the time and as far as other issues, I haven�??t seen anything in terms of issues that Citigroup had or doesn�??t have. We feel very confident that this transaction has been done appropriately and will continue and be consummated.�??
He added: �??We believe that regulators would also be comfortable with what has transpired here.�??

As I write this Maria B. on CNBC is interviewing Kovacevich. He stated that �??We have a signed merger agreement and no one else does�??. Kovacevich�??s interview also make a raft of other statements that the New York court will find to be incredibly useful in issuing an injunction against the Wells Fargo/Wachovia merger.

In his interview with CNBC Kovacevich also admitted that his company submitted the merger agreement to Wachovia�??s management and got it signed without first clearing what he was doing with the FDIC.

New Yorkers hate Citigroup because they are the most litigious, aggressive company in the state. There is absolutely no doubt that Citigroup will do whatever it takes to drive a gigantic stake into Richard Kovacevich�??s heart, and to destroy Wells Fargo. If Wachovia ends up in a Chapter 11, that will merely be collateral damage.

The conduct of Kovacevich, the Wells Fargo legal team, Wachovia�??s management and the Wachovia legal team goes beyond reprehensible because it is conduct which will wildly destablize the banking system."

Wells Fargo will come out on top. They are a very conservative bank with clean sheets. Wachovia rejected Citi’s offer which was not binding.

Addendum to the above: Citi could not even move on Wachovia without help from the fed.

I agree but if the LOI holds up in a court of law Wachovia would have no choice. Citi has already threatened lawsuits if the FDIC allows the WF/WB deal. Don’t forget either that WF does not have clean balance sheets. Their ability to do this deal would be contingent upon selling their bad assets to the TARP. However, the WF/WB would cost the taxpayers nothing beyond that. Citi’s existence likely depends on this deal so it is a win/win for them to sue.

It will be very interesting to see how this plays out.

bdog527: I saw that on ibankcoin.com. I’m no lawyer but I do have to agree. If C had an exclusivity contract signed Sunday night WFC and WB can NOT later decide to merge unless C agrees. WB’s board will be in a lot of trouble for this and WFC should no better. I also find it telling that WFC did not go to the FDIC with this acquisition news, they took it public first. WFC is betting that public perception of a private sector deal and not a bailout will win them WB. It is also a better deal for WB shareholders but WB boards say in any of this ended when on Sunday they let the FDIC send their deposits to C.

C may be having some hard times but they need these deposits and will fight hard to get them.
I see this playing out one of 2 ways. WFC pays C a huge sum of money to allow them to acquire WB or WFC and C go to court but C will win. WFC may be a better deal for WB shareholders but they should have done that last Sunday.

As far as SRS goes I love it in theory but be careful. I have traded in and out for a few months now and the short selling ban has that trading a bit off. I agree Comm RE is fucked though so keep a close eye on it. You might be better of just buying puts on IYR. I just can’t get comfortable with SRS after what happened to SKF when the short ban came out a few weeks ago.

on edge: I don’t see the S&P at the bottom of any channel, it broke below all the lines I have drawn. As opposed to WFC if I had to own a bank (which I don’t) go with USB. They are by far the best balance sheet in the industry. I’m not saying WFC’s is not good but there is still a ton of CA exposure, CA is near bankruptcy and now they are going to get into a big legal fight w/ C. Just buy USB and sleep well. I’d also stay away from the reit. Higher borrowing costs are going to kill them. I like the fact it is a healthcare reit but they will still get beaten up with the industry. Keep it simple NVS is a great buy. Good financials good chart and they will get a big boost buy the weak euro.

I did hold some things over the weekend so I am long NVS, PM, and WMT. I also have some SDS and GM puts.

[quote]rainjack wrote:
DB297 wrote:
Stop paying attention to the equity markets. When the credit markets begin to ease then you can invest. Otherwise you have to be a trader and very fast.

LIBOR is above 4%, that is insane. Credit spreads are at historicly high levles. States are now asking for billions just to pay their teachers, police etc. because the commerical paper market is cllosed.

Like I said don’t invest now but if you have to have some money in be a trader and learn too hedge. Right now I am long NVS, PM and WMT while holding SRS (2x short the S&P)and GM puts and having a good day.

However there is no way I would hold any position over the weekend. We can easily see a 50bps rate cut over the weekend or we can see a major banckruptcy.

Whoever said to invest in GE I have to disagree with. Buffett has perpetually preferred shares with a 10% yield and warrant which are essentially $22 call options.

He has a much better deal than you, he is getting $300M in cash per year for that investment and in the $ options. When they do their common stock secondary they are going to dilute all current holders.

Also I find it strange a AAA company is paying loan shark terms to raise capital they allegedly do not need.

I can’t defend the 10% - but once the credit market eases up, GE will come back strong.

But what the hell are you talking about call options? They are warrants exercisable at 22.25.

That’s the fun part about the stock market. Some folks see a bad thing, others see a good thing.

I’m glad there are more people think badly of GE right now. It makes dollar cost averaging much more powerful.
[/quote]

Did you see the 10 year chart of GE I posted? If you had DCA over that time, you’d be sitting on some serious loses. Unless you’re time frame is 30 years or so, it was a bad investment.

Instead of dog stocks like that, how about stocks that have rising earnings every year for the past 10? That’s a 99% winner.

[quote]AynRandLuvr wrote:
rainjack wrote:
DB297 wrote:
Stop paying attention to the equity markets. When the credit markets begin to ease then you can invest. Otherwise you have to be a trader and very fast.

LIBOR is above 4%, that is insane. Credit spreads are at historicly high levles. States are now asking for billions just to pay their teachers, police etc. because the commerical paper market is cllosed.

Like I said don’t invest now but if you have to have some money in be a trader and learn too hedge. Right now I am long NVS, PM and WMT while holding SRS (2x short the S&P)and GM puts and having a good day.

However there is no way I would hold any position over the weekend. We can easily see a 50bps rate cut over the weekend or we can see a major banckruptcy.

Whoever said to invest in GE I have to disagree with. Buffett has perpetually preferred shares with a 10% yield and warrant which are essentially $22 call options.

He has a much better deal than you, he is getting $300M in cash per year for that investment and in the $ options. When they do their common stock secondary they are going to dilute all current holders.

Also I find it strange a AAA company is paying loan shark terms to raise capital they allegedly do not need.

I can’t defend the 10% - but once the credit market eases up, GE will come back strong.

But what the hell are you talking about call options? They are warrants exercisable at 22.25.

That’s the fun part about the stock market. Some folks see a bad thing, others see a good thing.

I’m glad there are more people think badly of GE right now. It makes dollar cost averaging much more powerful.

Did you see the 10 year chart of GE I posted? If you had DCA over that time, you’d be sitting on some serious loses. Unless you’re time frame is 30 years or so, it was a bad investment.

Instead of dog stocks like that, how about stocks that have rising earnings every year for the past 10? That’s a 99% winner.

[/quote]

You are a gold hording fear monger. The day I take financial advice from you, or even enter into a discussion about finances with you will be when hell freezes over.

[quote]AynRandLuvr wrote:
rainjack wrote:
DB297 wrote:
Stop paying attention to the equity markets. When the credit markets begin to ease then you can invest. Otherwise you have to be a trader and very fast.

LIBOR is above 4%, that is insane. Credit spreads are at historicly high levles. States are now asking for billions just to pay their teachers, police etc. because the commerical paper market is cllosed.

Like I said don’t invest now but if you have to have some money in be a trader and learn too hedge. Right now I am long NVS, PM and WMT while holding SRS (2x short the S&P)and GM puts and having a good day.

However there is no way I would hold any position over the weekend. We can easily see a 50bps rate cut over the weekend or we can see a major banckruptcy.

Whoever said to invest in GE I have to disagree with. Buffett has perpetually preferred shares with a 10% yield and warrant which are essentially $22 call options.

He has a much better deal than you, he is getting $300M in cash per year for that investment and in the $ options. When they do their common stock secondary they are going to dilute all current holders.

Also I find it strange a AAA company is paying loan shark terms to raise capital they allegedly do not need.

I can’t defend the 10% - but once the credit market eases up, GE will come back strong.

But what the hell are you talking about call options? They are warrants exercisable at 22.25.

That’s the fun part about the stock market. Some folks see a bad thing, others see a good thing.

I’m glad there are more people think badly of GE right now. It makes dollar cost averaging much more powerful.

Did you see the 10 year chart of GE I posted? If you had DCA over that time, you’d be sitting on some serious loses. Unless you’re time frame is 30 years or so, it was a bad investment.

Instead of dog stocks like that, how about stocks that have rising earnings every year for the past 10? That’s a 99% winner.

[/quote]

If you had bothered to read my posts, you would see that I said GE was a very long term investment. I said it was a 20-30 year investment.

Thanks for playing.

[quote]DB297 wrote:

on edge: I don’t see the S&P at the bottom of any channel, it broke below all the lines I have drawn.
[/quote]

The bottom of the channel I’m looking at is from about July or August '07 to now on this chart;

I can see how someone could interpret this recent drop as dropping below this trend line, which is scary as hell, but I think it could also just be a vibrational blip and really just be right on that bottom trend line.

Regarding Wells, I’m not nearly as sophisticated as you. The only thing I’ve looked at is it hangs in there when financials are getting hammered and it advances when they are not. I don’t look at balance sheets or anything like that. I’m going to check out USB, though. I’ve never looked at that one before.

[quote]on edge wrote:
DB297 wrote:

on edge: I don’t see the S&P at the bottom of any channel, it broke below all the lines I have drawn.

The bottom of the channel I’m looking at is from about July or August '07 to now on this chart;

I can see how someone could interpret this recent drop as dropping below this trend line, which is scary as hell, but I think it could also just be a vibrational blip and really just be right on that bottom trend line.

Regarding Wells, I’m not nearly as sophisticated as you. The only thing I’ve looked at is it hangs in there when financials are getting hammered and it advances when they are not. I don’t look at balance sheets or anything like that. I’m going to check out USB, though. I’ve never looked at that one before.[/quote]

This is the most difficult market I have ever seen. If you aren’t reading balance sheets take your money and put it in a cd. You can get your head ripped off very quick.

VIX is above 50. and dow fell below 10,000. You eiither need to be hedged or all cash. My SDS is up huge today and making up for my longs in NVS and PM but unless you can watch the market all day this is no time to trade.

I just started this stock market thing in June.

What a time to get in… Damn

The S&P is below all the trendlines I have drawn as well.

This is setting up for a nasty drop. Breadth on the NYSE is 30 to 1 negative, volume is picking up to the downside. Be careful out there. Hopefully this is quick and dirty and sets up for a great buying opportunity.

It’s clearly below any conceivable line now. Damn those falling knives are sharp.

No matter, when fear is gripping the market, it’s time to step in. The question is where to step in. Does anyone see any sectors getting pulled down unjustly? XLE is really getting hammered but I can see good reasoning for it. If we are heading into a global slowdown, oil will keep falling. When i get off here I’m going to check out food companies, esp snack type.

We will have a snap back rally and right now we need ideas on what’s a good deal right now.

RIG below 90. BUY!