[quote]pittbulll wrote:
[quote]dmaddox wrote:
[quote]pittbulll wrote:
I am curious if I understand this , The Bank part of the financial institution , made the mortgages to public , The banks in turn packaged them together and sold them on wall street as the best rated investments, Then the insurance part of the financial institutions sold insurance to guarantee that the investments would pay off. And because the investments were overrated, they sold at very low prices and it became a good bet that they could buy the insurance and win on the pay outs of people defaulting. So the Financial system is like a bookie playing both ends?[/quote]
PittBull this is a very good question. I used to work at Chase before all this went down. These Bankers not only are smart, but they know how to market this stuff. They are sales people
To answer your question it will take a lot of math and time to explain, but I will try anyway.
A CDO has different layers called tranches. To keep it simple A, B, C, and equity shares. The A shares, 35% of the deal, got paid say 2% on the money they invested, but they were paid first after the administration of the CDO and maybe even had insurance to pay them back. The B shares, 15% of the deal, got paid say 4%, and got paid Second. C shares, 10% of the deal, got paid 8% and got paid third. The Equity shares, 40% of the deal, got everything that was left over.
Where did the money come from you say? All the subprime loans out there. The loans in our hypothetical CDO paid maybe 7% on average. Now you see that we have enough interest coming in to pay back all the different tranches of the CDOs. So when the different loans started to default on their payments the first layer that got hit was the Equity shares, then the C, then the B, then the A shares. Large Institutions, and Banks were purchasing the A shares. When there is not a market for these types of investments, even though the A shares were getting paid you have to mark to market. When there is no market you have to price them really low to worthless. All the bank even though they were still getting paid their 2% on their money the A shares were priced at say $0.10 on the dollar. With all the regulations put upon the banks to start with they had to come up with more money to put in reserves and all the other places the government requires of them.
I am for placing regulations on certain derivatives that are sold to main street, but the banks and institutions know the risks they are playing with, or should know what they are playing with.
Trying to be too cute with engineering a regular Mortgage Loan gets you into trouble in my opinion. The Mortgage loans got more and more sophisticated that the public did not really know what they owned.
I have over simplified this, but I hope that you may understand or have more questions that I might be able to answer.
On the topic of the OP. Goldman Sachs agreed to take a certain half of a trade that Paulson & Co was on the other half. Paulson & Co paid Goldman $15 Million for the trade. Goldman then had to make sure they had a zero sum game on this trade or hedging. They went out and sold their half of the trade to the public. The big question is whether Goldman by law had to tell the public, or were they lying to the public about the securities.
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If I understand correctly, you presented a more complex version of what I asked.
For a regulation that would force a smaller version of financial institutions, wouldnâ??t disallowing Banks to sell insurance and disallowing Insurance companies to be Banks, reduce their size of Financial Institutions ?
One of the things that complicated things is that the banks were buying their own insurance, and (IN MY OPINION) shuttling the pay out in insurance out to the employees via bonuses. But because the Banks took such a huge loss, we had to bail them out.
I know I may not have my mind wrapped around it but I want to grasp it.
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The willingness to learn is a begining. I dont have all the answers, but the willingness of the government to bail them out will hurt us in the long run. Until the consequences to take huge amounts of risk are realized the banks will continue to do this. The reform Bill that is trying to be passed should just state.
“The US Federal Government will never again bail out any company for taking on too much risk.”
To my knowledge AIG was really the only one selling Credit Defalt Swaps. They were dumb in thinking that the housing market would continue to go up forever. If they would have been able to calculate the amount of defaults with accuracy then the premium they would have charged would have prohibited all the banks from buying the insurance. They charged a low premium so the banks bought up the credit default swaps like mad men. I think the only large banks that got into trouble were Bank of America and Citigroup. Washington Mutual was a Savings and Loan, and AIG was an insurer so they are not a bank. WAMU acts like a bank, but by definition not a Commercial Bank. If I have missed one someone will let us know.