Gerald Celente on the Next 3 Years

The interview ends at about 15 minutes in.

Do you have any thoughts of your own on this matter, or do you always agree with youtube clips?

You start EVERY ONE of your threads like this. Expect me to be the first one replying from now on.

I tend to listen to people who got things right, its a crazy concept I know. If you listen to Celente and you see what I am saying on this board you will realize that we differ on a major issue China.

Feel free to be the first to comment, You may actually learn something.

DO. YOU. HAVE. ANY. THOUGHTS. ABOUT. THESE. ECONOMIC. TIMES - that aren’t posted by somebody else?
Did you take any econ classes that encouraged critical thinking?

What does John S. say about the next 3 years? Work with me, FFS.
If you google or plagiarize, then you have no clue what any of your “heroes” are saying.

Peter Schiff has been saying we’d be in hyperinflation already. Where’s that?

Peter Schiff loses money for his clients.

I’m not saying things aren’t bad. I’m pretty much a doomsayer also. I predicted the housing market collapse back in 2006 when I saw 1100 sq ft condos being sold in Los Angeles county for $500,000. I’m not financial genius either. It was kind of a no-brainer, actually.

This is not original, nor is it particularly accurate. John Robb says stuff like this all the time.

If you want a more accurate picture of what happens with a real breakdown, read FerFal’s blog:

Argentina suffered a banking system collapse back in 2001, and the author has actually lived through what we may or may not go through.

Independent self-sustaining communities sound great, but the reality is that they make everyone poor as hell. We got wealthier by taking advantage of economies of scale, mass production, and specialization. Our banking system has worked fairly well for quite awhile. Witness “the American Century.”

We made a lot of very bad assumptions over the past 10 years, allowed a lot of people mortgage money who shouldn’t have even been in the country, and allowed a lot of leverage based on those mortgages. Now, we’re trying to government-spend our way out of it while the interest payments on our public debt are projected to grow faster than our GDP growth. It doesn’t take a genius to see that’s not going to work.

However, fiat currencies, central banking, and the like exist world-wide for a reason.

No offense, dude, but Celente’s website seems pretty bush-league and seems set up to lure people into giving him money.

None of his predictions have been particularly clairvoyant. Most were obvious, even to the most casual observer, and most of his predictions have been mundane and unremarkable. They’ve all been made in enough of an ambiguous manner to let him off the hook if they didn’t come to pass.

He tells a lot of people stuff they want to hear and the stuff he says has a very populist tenor.

He’s just like Peter Schiff.

Stopped clocks are right twice a day.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schiff/2009/0129.html

Here is Peter defending himself, perhaps you will give it a read. Because what you said about him saying we would be in hyperinflation, if you actually listen to him he says it is a worse case scenario.

His clients are making money now, in fact his business is expanding. If he was losing his clients money why would that happen? You really want to discredit him because of the short dollar rally that happened?

You believe in deflation, yet Gold is sky rocketing. Where were all these deflation guys on that?

[quote]John S. wrote:
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schiff/2009/0129.html

Here is Peter defending himself, perhaps you will give it a read. Because what you said about him saying we would be in hyperinflation, if you actually listen to him he says it is a worse case scenario.
[/quote]
Hedging his bets huh? That sounds pretty vacillating and noncommittal to me.

Have you seen their balance sheets? Anyone who bought the market in the last year is doing well, as long as you weren’t in before the crash. Schiff has been yelling, “Buy Gold!” since as long as he’s been around. Gold has gone up and down several times.

I dunno, maybe because he’s on TV all the time and pessimism is in fashion? “Hey, this Peter Schiff guy is saying populist stuff I believe. I’m going to invest with him!”

No, for all the other crap he’s been wrong about. I posted a link awhile ago on stuff he’s said that he’s been wrong about and you blew it off (ie, hyperinflation, de-coupling strategy, foreign stocks, etc).

In Argentina, they’ve had a total banking system collapse. Guess what? They’re still using fiat currency. They’re using gold too. People just have a lot less money.

[quote]
You believe in deflation, yet Gold is sky rocketing. Where were all these deflation guys on that?[/quote]

Deflation has nothing to do with freaking gold prices. Did you read my “gold moves” thread? Credit worries cause gold prices to rise. Credit contraction can cause deflation if it’s big enough. In this case, it was, but that’s not necessarily so.

It’s like we post crap contradicting what you say and then you ignore it and reply, “Where’s the beef?”

Gold has been rising faster the the markets, that is just a fact, and really in the last 30 days it has taken off. $152/14.72% in 30 days for those who like to think short term. Who knows what it is going to be like in 6 months or what I am more interested in a year.

The dollar has lost 95% of its purchasing power, There is a reason why the Constitution says we must use Gold and Sliver.

Article I, Section 10, Clause 1: No State shallâ?¦coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debt

But we seem to ignore that document now so I guess it can’t be used in an argument anymore.

The government is going to keep printing money. They are working on Stimulus 2 as we speak.

It seems every time I walk through stores prices keep going up and up. Every time I go to the Gas pump it costs more an more. Every time I buy food I am paying more and more. Yet we are somehow in deflation? Look what the government is doing to the housing market, look at the home sales. The tax credit is being continued because of how popular it is. Leaking more money out of the banks, thus continuing to lower the value of our money.

I have yet to hear of people saying wow prices sure have dropped a lot. You always hear of people complaining because the prices of everything are going up.

Fiat currencies do not work. It collapsed on the Romans, hell the Continental collapsed.

There is just one more question regarding deflation and fiat money. Our money is backed by the full faith and credit of the federal government correct?

So if we go through deflation, then there is no way we could pay back our debts correct? So wouldn’t that then destroy the faith and credit of the federal government? Making the dollar worth less?

[quote]John S. wrote:
Gold has been rising faster the the markets, that is just a fact, and really in the last 30 days it has taken off. $152/14.72% in 30 days for those who like to think short term. Who knows what it is going to be like in 6 months or what I am more interested in a year.

The dollar has lost 95% of its purchasing power,
[/quote]
Since when? Can I really go to the store and buy only 5% of the milk I was able to buy before with the same amount of money since this dollar collapse you’re alluding to? It doesn’t seem that way to me.

It says no such thing. It is saying that the states can’t print money. Printing of money is left to the federal government.

This is where the real disconnect is in your head. Like I said earlier, we can argue about what ought to be in the CPI calculations, but the CPI is AN INDICATOR of inflation. Prices != inflation/deflation. The change in the supply of money relative to the change in productivity = inflation/deflation. Or simply, change in quantity of money = change in inflation/deflation.

What you’re also not getting is that the amount of extant credit is factored into the money supply, even amongst Austrian economists. We can argue over whether or not fractional reserve banking is good or not, but that’s how it is.

On what planet? Earth? Prices continue to decline, even in California. Did you read the carefully annotated article I just posted?

Look at the Case-Shiller index:

The dollar has fallen 95% since 1913. I should have specified more.

Article I, Section 8, Clause 5: The Congress shall have Powerâ?¦To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures.

Article I, Section 10, Clause 1: No State shallâ?¦coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debt.

So, from that we have:

  1. The federal government can coin money.

  2. States cannot coin money.

  3. States have the authority of determining what can be used as a tender in payment of debts by default, because the federal government does not have that specific constitutional authorization.

  4. States are then prohibited by the Constitution from making any Thing but gold or silver coin a tender in payment of debts. (Which also additionally proves that #3 is correct.)

Listen, I don’t need the CPI to tell me what used to cost me $50 in groceries is now costing me $60.

About the emerging housing bubble Government Responds to Economic Woes by Making More Bad Mortgage Loans | Robert Higgs

[quote]John S. wrote:

About the emerging housing bubble Government Responds to Economic Woes by Making More Bad Mortgage Loans | Robert Higgs
[/quote]

I’ve read that too.

They clearly would like to blow another bubble if they can. That’s essentially what TARP was and what this lending is. “Can they do it?” is the real question.

If they do manage to achieve another mortgage bubble, it’s likely it’ll collapse in half the time it took the first one to collapse. They may get a bump out of it briefly.

Likely, these people will get loans and then default on them just like they did during the past 8 years. Uncreditworthy people are uncreditworthy for a reason: they don’t know how to manage money.

Right now, the government thinks it can make something out of nothing.

We know the TARP did nothing except create more unemployment and misallocated capital. This will be the same thing. The government is turning knobs it has no understanding of.

[quote]PRCalDude wrote:
John S. wrote:

About the emerging housing bubble Government Responds to Economic Woes by Making More Bad Mortgage Loans | Robert Higgs

I’ve read that too.

They clearly would like to blow another bubble if they can. That’s essentially what TARP was and what this lending is. “Can they do it?” is the real question.

If they do manage to achieve another mortgage bubble, it’s likely it’ll collapse in half the time it took the first one to collapse. They may get a bump out of it briefly.

Likely, these people will get loans and then default on them just like they did during the past 8 years. Uncreditworthy people are uncreditworthy for a reason: they don’t know how to manage money.

the FHA â??is underwriting loans at quadruple the rate of three years ago even as its reserves to cover defaults are dwindling.â?? The Mortgage Bankers Association affirmed on November 19 that â??more than one in six F.H.A. borrowers was behind on payments.â??

Right now, the government thinks it can make something out of nothing.

We know the TARP did nothing except create more unemployment and misallocated capital. This will be the same thing. The government is turning knobs it has no understanding of.[/quote]

The chart above shows the index levels for the U.S. National Home Price Index, as well as its annual returns. As of the 2nd quarter of 2009, average home prices across the United States are at similar levels to what they were in early 2003. From the peak in the second quarter of 2006, average home prices are down 30.2%. From your article.

Now, that 1 out of 6 would be a problem but, the government will buy the property and rent it to the people. Sure they only do it for 1 year, but by the time that one year gets up I am willing to bet that they will extend it like they do every other program.

If the government would let the market do what it needs to do I would be standing with you screaming deflation. I do think that at some point we will have deflation, but it won’t be till after some major inflation because of the government doing what it is doing.

I will be adding the link you gave me to favorites and next I am going to be reading the link in your other thread.

We will know what the housing market will do after next year tho. A lot of ARMS are going to be reset then. We will see if the Government lets those houses fall or comes in and bails them out.