[quote]vroom wrote:
No shortage of soldiers? How would you explain the “backdoor draft”? [/quote]
There is no “backdoor draft” going on. They are calling up certain people with certain skill sets – specifically military police and trainers.
As to “stop loss” measures, see this:
December 06, 2004
HOW SOON THEY FORGET
Big news tonight that a group of soldiers are suing the government because although their terms of enlistment are up, they aren’t being released due to stop loss.
Prepare to hear the phrase “backdoor draft” all over again.
But here’s what amazes me about this: the reason for stop loss may or may not be in part to play a numbers a game; but it’s also to make sure that units about to deploy or already deployed are frozen in place, to make sure that unit cohesion isn’t altered by having people coming and going when service contracts come due, making it necessary to replace those individuals.
The services didn’t randomly wake up one morning and decide that freezing units in place during war time might be a fun thing to try. As I’ve noted repeatedly, something the press always misses, since they pretty much stopped paying attention to the military after Vietnam except for a month here and a month there (and six months during Desert Shield/Storm) is that the military has spent twenty-five years obsessing over what went wrong in Vietnam and how they could make sure it would never go wrong again.
And one thing that made everyone’s list was the one year tour of duty. It meant that every unit was made up of people who were at different stages of their tour, rookies mixed in with veterans, people who didn’t really know what they were doing with people who were risk averse because they were close to going home, people who were tightly bonded mixed in with people who barely knew one another’s names, people close to their half-way point leave, people just back from leave – it was a disaster. And based on that disaster the move was made from deployments for individuals to deployments for entire units. No longer would an individual go to war for a set period of time. Now an individual was assigned to a unit and he or she would deploy with his or her unit for as long as that unit deployed. (Which was still less than World War II, when troops, and units, had deployed for the duration.) But units simply cannot be guaranteed in advance that they will deploy for a specific period of time and have that be honored no matter what during time of war – the needs of the military have to come first.
But the only alternative is to have some people, whose terms of service end before the unit is to come home, leave early, and be replaced by people unknown to the rest of the unit, with far less experience than the rest of the unit. It doesn’t replicate the Vietnam experience, but it comes close enough that the military just isn’t going to play. Not when it doesn’t take but a few people in critical slots to throw everyone off and put a number of people of risk.
And that’s the part of stop loss the press never explains.
You’re correct – I won’t agree. We have leaders who put together strategy and let us know what’s needed. I will take them at their word rather than assume you and Elk know how best to utilize resources.
If you’re fully aware of comparative advantage then you should have no doubts – provided there’s not a shortage of manpower. Which there is not. See above.
[quote] It’s not that I don’t see your argument and point, but I don’t agree with it. The war is a much more focused and intense event, with the ability for one average person to have a measurable impact, whereas the economy simply isn’t.
In every day real on-the-job life it is very difficult to have an impact on something as large as the economy.
One bullet aimed at the right person at the right time however can have a huge, direct and immediate impact. Even something as simple as being alert or befriending an ally with access to information can be huge. Given your rations to local children may even tip the tide in terms of befriending the Iraqi people. The ability to have a real impact is at least there. [/quote]
You’re basically making a chaos theory argument, with the smallest imput having the chance to make a big impact. However, this applies equally to small and large processes – in other words, it applies to the economy as well as to the battlefield. Hell, it applies to non-job-related activities at home as well.
But even aside from the chaos theory argument, you’re still arguing that you know better how to employ resources than the planners, and still ignoring comparative advantage.
Look, let’s examine for a second what would happen to an average college-educated person who signed up now. He would become an officer, and presumably would receive training for the type of work they need done over there. He would also get normal OCS training. So for some number of months, he is completely unproductive, as he is no longer economically productive, and he is not doing anything of import for the GWOT. However, not even the military would disregard his previous training – if someone with a lot of computer skills such as yourself signed up, he would end up doing something related to computers, not driving a truck. Someone like me would be assigned to be a lawyer. I might think I would make a good intelligence person, but I have no language skills other than English, and I have a law degree, so since the army understands comparative advantage and would not wish to overlook the inherent value of existing skills and education, I would be a lawyer. This isn’t a situation like Russia in WWII in which they’re looking for bodies for the front, and we have an all-volunteer professional army conducting the combat operations – and doing so quite well.
[quote] Even going back a layer, driving the truck that brings food to the front line soldiers will have much more impact than helping one business litigate another to death. However, perhaps you are helping the US with respect to interpretation of the constitution or something with expertise that cannot be replaced?
It is possible, but it is also rare.[/quote]
BTW, I don’t do litigation. Neither prosecution nor defense. I also don’t interpret the Constitution generally, as I don’t deal with the government except to file things with the SEC or state secretaries of state. I’ve never filed a brief, nor been to court. I incorporate companies, help them get funding, help form venture capital funds, make employment contracts, implement option plans, craft corporate governance plans, etc.
That’s where my skills lie, and doing that is how I can best help grow the economy and help to keep our machine running. That’s my highest-value contribution with the situation as it is currently.
Note, that’s the argument – not that anyone in particular is irreplacable.