Energy Independence

[quote]pookie wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
Is the gasoline energy conversion you posted the amount of energy that can be put to work moving the car vs. wasted through heat generation?

I have no idea. Many alternative fuel sites throw around a lot of numbers without explaining what they mean or what they’re derived from.

I was looking for how much fossil fuel is required to extract more fossil fuel. I’m expecting a ratio similar to 1:50 or 1:100… maybe more. Basically I’m looking for the current baseline. It’s very nice to say that ethanol has a positive energy balance (although even that seems to be contested), but if you’re claiming victory with 1:1.3 or 1:1.6 while our current method offers 1:50, you’re still way way behind.

Personally, I think better solar cells coupled with better battery technology have a better chance of replacing the internal combustion engine than ethanol has of replacing fossil fuels.
[/quote]

Too many phony numbers out there.

I am not sold on electric cars yet.
I think hydrogen may be better for now.
Ethanol just does not seem viable.

The fact that it works so readily is hiding the fact that we cannot produce enough to make a difference.

Lots of renewable ways to generate electricity. Solar, wind, wave etc.

Buildings should be heated with geothermal. Change is coming.

[quote]vroom wrote:

It’s sort of pointless for both sides to “prove” it will or won’t work with our little calculators and slide rules…
[/quote]

You are clearly not an engineer.

[quote]pookie wrote:
vroom wrote:
That little addendum is key though, markets don’t perform until they are established… there is risk and hence an economic resistance to the creation of new markets.

Let the market establish itself. If gas prices rise enough, alternatives like ethanol, hybrids and diesel (ok, not technically an alternative, but good for conservation) will become attractive propositions for car owners. Once more alternative-fuel cars are on the road, gas stations offering ethanol and other alternative fuels will do more business, prompting competitors to also offer the alternatives.

The only thing preventing the market right now is that there isn’t any demand for it, as gas is still very affordable.
[/quote]

Exactly.

Pushing ethanol appears to be corporate welfare for ADM, Corn Products, AE Staley etc.

If it was economically viable these companies have the money to do it.

Anyone thought about the prospect of fusion. Ever heard of the Z machine, google it some pretty cool shit. Those dorks at Sandia are doing some pretty edgy shit.

[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
I am not sold on electric cars yet.
I think hydrogen may be better for now.[/quote]

If we can increase autonomy and reduce recharging time, I think electric cars are the future.

Hydrogen is more difficult to handle than gasoline, but has about the same energy potential when in liquid form. Keeping it in liquid form requires pressurized, puncture-proof and seepage-proof tanks.

Basically, you get no more bang for your buck per volume, but with all the added hassle of safely producing and transporting hydrogen. I think the added costs will keep that option off the market indefinitely.

The other fun thing about electric motors is that they have enormous torque at low speed. For performance enthusiasts, electric engines are a blast. They’re also quiet and the cars would produce no emissions. You could “fuel” at home, by plugging in your wall. I find very little to dislike about electric cars, once we get smaller, more efficient batteries.

[quote]pookie wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
I am not sold on electric cars yet.
I think hydrogen may be better for now.

If we can increase autonomy and reduce recharging time, I think electric cars are the future.

Hydrogen is more difficult to handle than gasoline, but has about the same energy potential when in liquid form. Keeping it in liquid form requires pressurized, puncture-proof and seepage-proof tanks.

Basically, you get no more bang for your buck per volume, but with all the added hassle of safely producing and transporting hydrogen. I think the added costs will keep that option off the market indefinitely.

The other fun thing about electric motors is that they have enormous torque at low speed. For performance enthusiasts, electric engines are a blast. They’re also quiet and the cars would produce no emissions. You could “fuel” at home, by plugging in your wall. I find very little to dislike about electric cars, once we get smaller, more efficient batteries.
[/quote]

There are a number of different methods to store hydrogen as a solid, not a compressed gas.

I would be against liquid hydrogen fuel tanks.

[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
There are a number of different methods to store hydrogen as a solid, not a compressed gas.

I would be against liquid hydrogen fuel tanks.[/quote]

Quite interesting. I’ll still bet on the electricity/battery combo. Ammonia is not a friendly substance, nor is gaseous H. I think the costs of the various safety precautions required for that tech will keep it away from the market. It might be used for mass transit (boats, planes, etc.) but for Mr Joe Average’s car, I don’t see it.

[quote]buffballswell wrote:
Anyone thought about the prospect of fusion. Ever heard of the Z machine, google it some pretty cool shit. Those dorks at Sandia are doing some pretty edgy shit.[/quote]

I think we can safely wait for large fusion plants before thinking about putting “Mr. Fusion” blenders on our cars.

But yes, if we can achieve sustainable fusion reactors, much of our power problems will go away for a long time.

[quote]pookie wrote:

Ammonia is not a friendly substance, nor is gaseous H. I think the costs of the various safety precautions required for that tech will keep it away from the market. It might be used for mass transit (boats, planes, etc.) but for Mr Joe Average’s car, I don’t see it.[/quote]

Agreed, trading Hydrogen for Anhydrous Ammonia is definitely not a trade up. Used it every spring on the farm, it’d be like fueling your car with teargas. Except teargas doesn’t chemical burn your lungs and mucus membranes and raise your blood pH until you die, quickly.

Also, am I not mistaken that both Hydrogen and Ammonia aren’t independent energy? They both require natural gas or petroleum for their production, am I missing something?

Additionally, people are always stealing ammonia from farm supplies and co-ops to cook up amphetamines.

[quote]lucasa wrote:

Also, am I not mistaken that both Hydrogen and Ammonia aren’t independent energy? They both require natural gas or petroleum for their production, am I missing something?

.[/quote]

Hydrogen is not readily available. Energy must be used to create it.

The idea behind the hydrogen car is the theory that the energy is easier to store as hydrogen than it is to store in a battery as electricity.

has anyone mentioned coal to oil? It at least eases reliance on the middle east while viable environmentally friendly alternatives are explored.

[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
Exactly.

Pushing ethanol appears to be corporate welfare for ADM, Corn Products, AE Staley etc.
[/quote]

You guys are missing my point, as usual. First, I’m not suggesting that ethanol be forced… but that a market be created so that it can compete.

It’s similar to how public electric utilities were used to establish the framework for electricity. Or, perhaps, how municipal sewage is handled.

Markets are incredibly efficient, when a market actually exists. When you talk of demand, it is multi-faceted. There is almost zero demand for ethanol right now, because nobody has the ability to use it… it’s not even able to compete at the moment.

What I am suggesting is unlocking the power of competition by making it something that people can actually choose to use. There is a huge difference between this and “pushing” it.

As for “not being an engineer”, it is the price point - once there is the ability to substitute fuels - that will drive the issue. Can someone make a profit supplying it? If so, it will be supplied. Can someone save money by using it? If so, they will buy it.

However, there is no infrastructure in place to support this. Most people can’t afford to buy a new car and also set up their own fuel storage tank, it is not practical.

So, when I’m talking about establishing a market, I’m talking about making it practical and convenient to make choices or to offer services in ethanol as a commodity.

Fucking ridiculous.

[quote]vroom wrote:
You guys are missing my point, as usual.[/quote]

No, we get your point. We just disagree with it.

You seem to be operating under the notion that anyone disagreeing with you does so because they don’t understand what you’re saying. While your meandering exposés are often as clear as mud, most of your points are dead simple.

We get them. We just think they are wrong. Belaboring the point for another 5-6 posts is unlikely to change anyone’s mind because - and this is the important part - we got it the first time. People understanding you and disagreeing is a reality you need to come to grips with. The sooner the better.

The last thing ethanol needs is more government involvement. There’s no ethanol market right now simply because it cannot compete with fossil fuels on performance, availability or especially price. Once it becomes a lot cheaper to fuel with ethanol than with regular gas, demand will appear and market will follow.

The last thing I want is for my taxes to subsidize another dead-end industry. If ethanol cannot make it on its own merits, let it die. There are other alternatives, and I think the free market can make a better decision than any government committee.

Vroom, I understand your point. If it is the right technology I don’t mind the government giving it a boost.

Crunching the numbers it appears ethanol can never contribute significantly to our energy needs and therefore we should not waste government money forcing it down consumers throats.

We need something to replace oil, not replace or supplement a small percentage of oil use.

[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
Vroom, I understand your point. If it is the right technology I don’t mind the government giving it a boost.

Crunching the numbers it appears ethanol can never contribute significantly to our energy needs and therefore we should not waste government money forcing it down consumers throats.

We need something to replace oil, not replace or supplement a small percentage of oil use.[/quote]

The two appear to be very competitive. My understanding is that NEG ratio of EtOH is 1.3-1.6 vs. solar which is estimated to be anywhere from 1 (using current technologies) to 20 (nominal yield scenario).

To suggest we can’t possibly farm, ferment, and distill enough EtOH to replace oil ignores the fact that we probably can’t blanket the globe in electronics-grade silica either.

But it doesn’t matter for now, as long as 20% of the world’s oil is pumping itself above ground, any NEG less than like 50 at any capacity is meaningless.

[quote]pookie wrote:

The last thing I want is for my taxes to subsidize another dead-end industry. If ethanol cannot make it on its own merits, let it die. There are other alternatives, and I think the free market can make a better decision than any government committee.
[/quote]

EtOH isn’t dead end (at least not in the near future). In most of the US, it got up under its own power and appears to be standing on it’s own two legs. E10 is used virtually everywhere and E85 is becoming more available everyday. The only problem it has is competing with oil, which currently has an NEG ratio of about 20. The more we use it, the closer we get to the .74-.80 NEG ratio you quoted before.

Solar may overtake EtOH in the future, but right now EtOH looks much more feasible.

[quote]lucasa wrote:
EtOH isn’t dead end (at least not in the near future). In most of the US, it got up under its own power and appears to be standing on it’s own two legs.[/quote]

I’m not saying it’s a dead-end. I just don’t want to see the governments propping it up if it turns out not to be a viable replacement.

I prefer keeping a level playing field where the various competing alternatives to oil can duke it out and hopefully see the best one come out on top.

Free market economics…definitely the way to go.

However, the biggest hurdle to all alternative fuels is that powerful people rarely give up any power. When billions of $$$$ are at stake, the oil industry can make alternatives impossible to bring to market. Imagine the rules and regs with regard to new fuels! Why, we have to wonder, were all those rules and regulations put there? To protect the public? Ha! The mixed economy wasn’t created to protect anyone but entrenched interests from competition.

[quote]pookie wrote:
The last thing ethanol needs is more government involvement. There’s no ethanol market right now simply because it cannot compete with fossil fuels on performance, availability or especially price. Once it becomes a lot cheaper to fuel with ethanol than with regular gas, demand will appear and market will follow.

The last thing I want is for my taxes to subsidize another dead-end industry. If ethanol cannot make it on its own merits, let it die. There are other alternatives, and I think the free market can make a better decision than any government committee.
[/quote]

See, when you say stuff like this you really do look like you don’t understand what I’m saying when I talk about the operation of markets and sometimes the need to create markets.

There is a monopoly of sorts in place right now. It’s the same as some utility company trying to run 240v wires in North America. There’s no market for it. However, you’d be foolish to say there is no market for electricity.

There is the ability, and it is both cheap and readily available, to make cars able to operate on another source of fuel. At that point, there would be a market, and the factors you discuss could be taken into account by that market.

What we have right now is the defence of a situation which is, arguably, fueling world enmity as well as a host of environmental factors. That is costly!

All too often people suggest something new can’t be done, and they have all kinds of reasons to stand behind, but they end up proven wrong by people that simply go and figure out how to do it.

Create the market. Let the chips fly. There is nothing to lose and the potential to gain by reducing the reliance on foreign sources of energy. How you go from this to arguing about mandating use of ethanol is a confusing leap.

Personally, I think we are close. I think there is marginal land that could be retasked. I suspect that, much like the article link to above, we will find that we can use less costly sources of plant growth.

However, I doubt that something sensible will happen, such as simply enabling a market by allowing demand flexibility with respect to fuel. I suspect that if not now, some other price crisis will lead to a huge knee-jerk reaction by government, which will end up costing lots of money and being inefficient.

In general, as a philosophy, when a government can act without much cost or risk to enable public options, without anything like costly subsidization, then it makes sense to help enable or create a new competitive market. Precisely because of how efficient free markets are able to operate.

There is no better way to enable alternative fuels than to break down some of the barriers to entry with respect to the fuel market… and then let the markets do their job.

To add “fuel” to the fire…

Recent study says ethanol makes net gain for energy
http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=545590
Scientists and the U.S. Department of Agriculture have sparred for years over whether ethanol requires more energy to produce than it yields as fuel.

Professors at the University of California-Berkeley and Cornell University have published studies suggesting that ethanol production results in a net energy loss. The department argued that the studies used outdated information and included such factors as energy used in manufacturing farm equipment in the input equation.

In July, after more than three years of analyzing dozens of published reports and doing their own research, scientists at the University of Minnesota published a report concluding that ethanol produced from corn results in a 25% positive return on energy.

“We started with a fresh perspective,” said Jason Hill, lead author of the study. “There was a lot said that was fair and unfair about all these studies.”

Hill and other researchers found that the studies showing ethanol as a net loser used old data that didn’t account for recent efficiencies in corn and ethanol production. But the researchers kept in the farm machinery numbers and even decided to add the home energy costs of the farmers tilling the land into their equation.

Much of the positive return comes from the byproducts of ethanol production, such as high-protein distiller grains for animal feed, Hill said. Without the co-products, ethanol would roughly break even in energy spent on production compared with energy gleaned.