Dow at 14000

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
Marmadogg wrote:
hedo wrote:
Anyway I still say buy on bad news sell on good.

You are spot on correct.

Residential real estate has never been a good investment. A house is a great place to live and a Lexus is a great car to drive. They are both standard of living choices and not good investments by any stretch of the imagination.

The Worst Investment Ever - The Worst Investment Ever | The Motley Fool

Spot on is right.

Speaking of buy on bad news, if one had the cash and the balls, corporate debt from former LBO targets and certain companies like Countrywide could pay off handsomely – just don’t invest to high a percent of your nut in that stuff…[/quote]

That is why distressed credit funds are popping up all over the place as we type…

[quote]nephorm wrote:
Marmadogg wrote:
Residential real estate has never been a good investment. A house is a great place to live and a Lexus is a great car to drive.

Depends on what you mean by investment. Residential rentals are good/great investments depending on how much maintenance you can do on your own and where your market is. Homes are good/great investments, again, depending on your location and your ability to pay the mortgage. The major advantages of home ownership are that you a) have to live somewhere and b) get a reduction in “rent” through tax deductions. If it costs you substantially more to own than to rent, then it is probably a poor idea in that market.

If you’re pointing out that homes aren’t reliable as short-term investment vehicles, I fully agree. There are a few exceptions to that rule, but you’d better know what you’re doing.[/quote]

Residential rentals are good if the numbers add up and they have not for several years.

With all the product on the market they will not for several more.

2009 at the earliest.

[quote]skaz05 wrote:
Can someone help me out here. From what I understand, the federal reserve injected about 70 billion into the market already, essentially buying up all these crappy CDOs from the hedge funds, and getting them at a really sweet price, in some instances fractions of pennies on the dollar.

Does this mean that the federal reserve now owns all these homes, and the land beneath them too? I don’t understand. This whole thing looks engineered. The only real winner I see is the federal reserve.

And what about the fund rate? Would loosening the rates have been a better solution than simply dumping cash into the market? The cash will take much longer to work it’s way through than loosening the rate, right?

I’m confused. I wish they wouldn’t use all this exotic language, and fancy shmancy jargon to explain this stuff. [/quote]

To answer your question about the fund rate…maybe.

Lowering the fund rate and increasing avilability of funds will create liquidity for the banks which is vital.

However getting them to lend the money to business may or may not occur. They can choose to invest it in timed deposits or T bills and making the spread on it. So both avilability and the price you pay is important to averting a crisis. SOmething the Fed is capable of doing and fairly good at.

It’s complicated stuff and difficult to learn. The Wall St. Journal does a credible job explaining things as does US News and World Report.

[quote]skaz05 wrote:
Can someone help me out here. From what I understand, the federal reserve injected about 70 billion into the market already, essentially buying up all these crappy CDOs from the hedge funds, and getting them at a really sweet price, in some instances fractions of pennies on the dollar.

Does this mean that the federal reserve now owns all these homes, and the land beneath them too? I don’t understand. This whole thing looks engineered. The only real winner I see is the federal reserve.

And what about the fund rate? Would loosening the rates have been a better solution than simply dumping cash into the market? The cash will take much longer to work it’s way through than loosening the rate, right?

I’m confused. I wish they wouldn’t use all this exotic language, and fancy shmancy jargon to explain this stuff. [/quote]

The fed bid not buy anything from hedge funds.

Read this:

The fed bought what?
http://www.mises.org/story/2676

Some opening! Hope it sticks. Didn’t see the Fed action coming.

I am not a skilled investor. I would say I am not even a very informed investor. But from what I have heard, it seems that a bull market requires a 10% correction after a big run-up before it will recharge and take off again.

Is this what it is?

Or is it the sound of the real-estate bubble bursting?

I kinda hope it is the latter, because I am sick and tired of all the “Flip this House” type shows.

[quote]rainjack wrote:
I am not a skilled investor. I would say I am not even a very informed investor. But from what I have heard, it seems that a bull market requires a 10% correction after a big run-up before it will recharge and take off again.

Is this what it is?

Or is it the sound of the real-estate bubble bursting?

I kinda hope it is the latter, because I am sick and tired of all the “Flip this House” type shows. [/quote]

The market ran up as a result of equity shrink.

No LBOs will be done anytime soon and hedge funds will continue to sell liquid assets to cover withdrawals and margin calls.

This will keep the BS exchanges from running up for some time.

The dead cat bounce we see today is the shorts booking their gains.

The fed lowered their rate and extended the overnight period to 30 days to make sure there is not liquidity crunch.

Countrywide retail banks are experiencing a run on their depositors accounts.

[quote]Marmadogg wrote:
rainjack wrote:
I am not a skilled investor. I would say I am not even a very informed investor. But from what I have heard, it seems that a bull market requires a 10% correction after a big run-up before it will recharge and take off again.

Is this what it is?

Or is it the sound of the real-estate bubble bursting?

I kinda hope it is the latter, because I am sick and tired of all the “Flip this House” type shows.

The market ran up as a result of equity shrink.

No LBOs will be done anytime soon and hedge funds will continue to sell liquid assets to cover withdrawals and margin calls.

This will keep the BS exchanges from running up for some time.

The dead cat bounce we see today is the shorts booking their gains.

The fed lowered their rate and extended the overnight period to 30 days to make sure there is not liquidity crunch.

Countrywide retail banks are experiencing a run on their depositors accounts.[/quote]

I also saw where countrywide is capping their loans at 417k.

[quote]Marmadogg wrote:
The fed bid not buy anything from hedge funds.

Read this:

The fed bought what?
http://www.mises.org/story/2676
[/quote]

Thanks a lot for that! Good read, I feel embarassed now…

[quote]hedo wrote:
Some opening! Hope it sticks. Didn’t see the Fed action coming.[/quote]

I think some sort of Fed action was priced in yesterday – the bank stocks led yesterday’s late-day comeback. The futures markets have already priced in a quarter-point rate cut in September.

Here in Canada we’re experiencing the same thing. This is actually turning into a global phenomenon.

Please remember that you haven’t lost a dime until you sell your investments. Now is not a time to panic. The markets go up and down and they will for the next while. I do believe the market was long overdue for a correction and we’ll recapture the loses within 6 months. Don’t take it from me though as I’m not a speculator but a slow and steady investor, in it for the long term.

Baron Rothschild, the quintessential banking opportunist, is said to have advised that the best time to buy is when there is “blood in the streets”. So there are some good deals to be had, happy shopping.

What I am puzzled about the most is PM, especially gold did it ever dive. I always believed it to be a natural hedge against the dropping dollar, good thing I stuck to the 5% portfolio allocation.

Cheers, TKO

Here’s a really interesting article/thread on the FT on the current market:

Addendum:

Here is a pretty good thread on the Fed’s actions:

http://www.volokh.com/posts/chain_1187326667.shtml

[quote]Marmadogg wrote:
Residential rentals are good if the numbers add up and they have not for several years.

With all the product on the market they will not for several more.

2009 at the earliest.[/quote]

Where are you looking that the numbers don’t add up?

You have to run no worse than slightly negative. As long as the house doesn’t lose value by the time you sell it, you have done well. If you wait for 2009 to buy when prices are up, you are getting in on the wrong end.

Maybe I misunderstand what you are saying.

I knew this was coming for a while, but I really expected it at a higher interest rate. This may slow down any fed rate increase though.

But once you see foreclosures flooding the market, some people will be making a lot of money off the people who mistakenly took out those adjustable rate mortgages.

I have a friend who thought the market was getting too crazy, and got out right before the dot com bust. Then he stayed out until right after 911. He wasn’t happy about 911, but he made a lot of money off of it. He almost feels guilty about it.

The best time to buy something is when nobody else wants it, and the best time to sell is when everyone wants it.

This is history repeating itself. Learn from it for next time.

Did you know that historically when there is a 1 day crash in the market, the next day it often recovers quite a bit. Then there is often another smaller crash a few months later. To me that means buy the day of the crash, wait and sell after at least 1 day, then wait for the next crash to get into more long term stocks.

The Fed was created to bail out stupid people, to not bring the house of cards crashing down. Think of the Fed as insurance against stupidity.

Problems then arise when individuals don’t want to pay for their own bad judgment and want to shift the burdens elsewhere. Look at all the people who stood and watched Katrina overwhelm them. “How dare you not evacuate me in time!!” They then expect someone else to rebuild their neighborhoods besides.

Fractional reserve banking is a prime example of wanting something for nothing. If I can generate $10 in loans for every $1 I have in assets, then shift the burden to someone else when it crashes, well, let’s just ignore risk and loan to EVERYBODY.


For anyone that pooped or peed a little in their pants lately as a result of the credit crunch courtesy of
Globe and Mail’s JOHN HEINZL John Heinzl:

(Normally I’d post just the link, but usually the free content expires withing 2-3 days).

A 10-step recovery plan for panicked investors

Overcome by subprime sadness? Crying about the credit crunch?

You’ve come to the right place.

As a service to readers, the in-house therapeutic staff at Market Moves has designed a 10-step program to help you cope with the market mayhem.

Followed diligently, particularly when supplemented with a program of moderate alcohol consumption, these steps will allow you to ride out the current discombobulations with a smile on your face.

Look at our picture. We’re smiling. And our portfolio is going down the tubes!

Step 1.
Admit you’re powerless over the stock market. Ever since man invented markets - it started with goats and cows and morphed into credit-default swaps and hybrid collateralized debt obligations - one thing has been constant: Prices go up, and they go down. Sometimes they go down hard. This short-term volatility is the price you pay for the long-term gains the stock market delivers. It’s entirely normal.

Step 2.
Stick with quality. Financial stocks have been getting creamed as investors worry about the fallout from the credit squeeze. But any losses our banks incur would be mere paper cuts compared with the billions in profit they pull down annually. “We continue to remind investors that Canadian banks have extremely strong capital ratios,” said analyst Ian de Verteuill at BMO Nesbitt Burns.

Step 3.
Buy stocks with rising dividends. When markets are going to hell, there’s nothing like a dividend cheque to cheer you up - especially when the cheques gets bigger every year. Banks, insurers, pipelines and some REITs are examples of companies that excel in this respect.

Step 4.
Double-up on your mortgage payment. If buying stocks makes you nervous right now, take the money you would have otherwise invested and pay down the mortgage. You’ll generate an after-tax return equal to the interest rate on your home loan. And, unlike asset-backed commercial paper, it’s guaranteed.

Step 5.
Make an RRSP contribution. By putting money into your RRSP now, you’ll avoid the February rush and prevent yourself from squandering the cash on a 51-inch LCD TV. That’s what the tax refund is for.

Step 6.
Stay positive. Yes, it’s scary out there. Ooooo, scary! But it’s not all doom and gloom, folks. Yesterday, H.J. Heinz and Deere & Co. both posted profits that topped estimates, giving their stocks a boost. In another positive sign, U.S. consumer prices rose just 0.1 per cent in July - the smallest increase in a year.

Step 7.
Remember that this, too, shall pass. During the stock market crash of 1987, the Dow Jones industrial average plunged 22 per cent in one day. Less than two years later, it had recouped all of its losses. Five years later, it was up 41 per cent from its level before the crash. And 10 years later, it was up 253 per cent.

Step 8.
Focus on the long term. Check out the chart of Royal Bank. Do you think folks who bought 10 years ago are worried about the latest hiccup? No, they’re too busy picking out a fall wardrobe at Holt’s.

Step 9.
Resist the urge to check share prices every 30 seconds. If you invest in solid businesses, just hold them and forget about it. Checking prices will only give you an ulcer. Okay, just one more time.

Step 10.
Give yourself a break. Go for a walk. Listen to Hall and Oates on your iPod. Make a new friend on Facebook. Anything to get your mind off the market.

Everything’s gonna be okay, really. But you have to follow the program.

[quote]nephorm wrote:
Marmadogg wrote:
Residential rentals are good if the numbers add up and they have not for several years.

With all the product on the market they will not for several more.

2009 at the earliest.

Where are you looking that the numbers don’t add up?

You have to run no worse than slightly negative. As long as the house doesn’t lose value by the time you sell it, you have done well. If you wait for 2009 to buy when prices are up, you are getting in on the wrong end.

Maybe I misunderstand what you are saying.[/quote]

If you bought the house before 2002 then you should be golden.

Rental property and real estate investment is a zero sum game when compared to investments that eliminate unsystematic risk over the long haul.

Prices will continue to drop through 2008 as inventory will take at least the next 18 months to stabilize.

You would do better to put your money in a treasury backed money market fund and wait until the first quarter to jump back into the S&P.

[quote]The Mage wrote:
I knew this was coming for a while, but I really expected it at a higher interest rate. This may slow down any fed rate increase though.

But once you see foreclosures flooding the market, some people will be making a lot of money off the people who mistakenly took out those adjustable rate mortgages.

I have a friend who thought the market was getting too crazy, and got out right before the dot com bust. Then he stayed out until right after 911. He wasn’t happy about 911, but he made a lot of money off of it. He almost feels guilty about it.

The best time to buy something is when nobody else wants it, and the best time to sell is when everyone wants it.

This is history repeating itself. Learn from it for next time.

Did you know that historically when there is a 1 day crash in the market, the next day it often recovers quite a bit. Then there is often another smaller crash a few months later. To me that means buy the day of the crash, wait and sell after at least 1 day, then wait for the next crash to get into more long term stocks.[/quote]

I wish I could but we have to hold all investments at least 60 days.

[quote]TKOWKD1 wrote:
For anyone that pooped or peed a little in their pants lately as a result of the credit crunch courtesy of
Globe and Mail’s JOHN HEINZL John Heinzl:

(Normally I’d post just the link, but usually the free content expires withing 2-3 days).

A 10-step recovery plan for panicked investors

Overcome by subprime sadness? Crying about the credit crunch?

You’ve come to the right place.

As a service to readers, the in-house therapeutic staff at Market Moves has designed a 10-step program to help you cope with the market mayhem.

Followed diligently, particularly when supplemented with a program of moderate alcohol consumption, these steps will allow you to ride out the current discombobulations with a smile on your face.

Look at our picture. We’re smiling. And our portfolio is going down the tubes!

Step 1.
Admit you’re powerless over the stock market. Ever since man invented markets - it started with goats and cows and morphed into credit-default swaps and hybrid collateralized debt obligations - one thing has been constant: Prices go up, and they go down. Sometimes they go down hard. This short-term volatility is the price you pay for the long-term gains the stock market delivers. It’s entirely normal.

Step 2.
Stick with quality. Financial stocks have been getting creamed as investors worry about the fallout from the credit squeeze. But any losses our banks incur would be mere paper cuts compared with the billions in profit they pull down annually. “We continue to remind investors that Canadian banks have extremely strong capital ratios,” said analyst Ian de Verteuill at BMO Nesbitt Burns.

Step 3.
Buy stocks with rising dividends. When markets are going to hell, there’s nothing like a dividend cheque to cheer you up - especially when the cheques gets bigger every year. Banks, insurers, pipelines and some REITs are examples of companies that excel in this respect.

Step 4.
Double-up on your mortgage payment. If buying stocks makes you nervous right now, take the money you would have otherwise invested and pay down the mortgage. You’ll generate an after-tax return equal to the interest rate on your home loan. And, unlike asset-backed commercial paper, it’s guaranteed.

Step 5.
Make an RRSP contribution. By putting money into your RRSP now, you’ll avoid the February rush and prevent yourself from squandering the cash on a 51-inch LCD TV. That’s what the tax refund is for.

Step 6.
Stay positive. Yes, it’s scary out there. Ooooo, scary! But it’s not all doom and gloom, folks. Yesterday, H.J. Heinz and Deere & Co. both posted profits that topped estimates, giving their stocks a boost. In another positive sign, U.S. consumer prices rose just 0.1 per cent in July - the smallest increase in a year.

Step 7.
Remember that this, too, shall pass. During the stock market crash of 1987, the Dow Jones industrial average plunged 22 per cent in one day. Less than two years later, it had recouped all of its losses. Five years later, it was up 41 per cent from its level before the crash. And 10 years later, it was up 253 per cent.

Step 8.
Focus on the long term. Check out the chart of Royal Bank. Do you think folks who bought 10 years ago are worried about the latest hiccup? No, they’re too busy picking out a fall wardrobe at Holt’s.

Step 9.
Resist the urge to check share prices every 30 seconds. If you invest in solid businesses, just hold them and forget about it. Checking prices will only give you an ulcer. Okay, just one more time.

Step 10.
Give yourself a break. Go for a walk. Listen to Hall and Oates on your iPod. Make a new friend on Facebook. Anything to get your mind off the market.

Everything’s gonna be okay, really. But you have to follow the program.

[/quote]

Buy REITs?

CPI numbers have been cooked since Clinton’s rein and they still are cooked BS.

Opinions are like a-holes…everyone has one and they all stink (including my opinion).

[quote]Marmadogg wrote:
If you bought the house before 2002 then you should be golden.

Rental property and real estate investment is a zero sum game when compared to investments that eliminate unsystematic risk over the long haul.

Prices will continue to drop through 2008 as inventory will take at least the next 18 months to stabilize.

You would do better to put your money in a treasury backed money market fund and wait until the first quarter to jump back into the S&P.[/quote]

I understand your point about systematic risk.

On the other hand - and please understand that I am not arguing for the sake of arguing… you seem to understand something that I do not - if I invest $20K in a mutual fund (or whatever else) that averages 10 percent a year, at the end of thirty years I will have $349K. If I invest $20K in a house worth $100K, and hold onto it for 30 years, assuming that the house has appreciated in value at an average of 5 percent a year, I will have $432K. If it averages 7 percent over that 30 years, I will have $761K.

It seems difficult to me to do much better than 10 percent, on average over a long term, in stocks. Someone who does it for a living or has more time to research can, I’m sure, do better than that consistently. It seems much easier to me to get a 5 percent or better average yearly return on real estate. Buying houses that are in need of work (and sell below market price) also means that you start out with a higher principle than you have paid for.

So what is your advice for the investor who cannot make his investments his job? The same?