[quote]Bujo wrote:
tGunslinger wrote:
Bujo wrote:
You are a prisoner in a foreign land, and your fate is to be determined by a game of chance. There are two jars, one with 50 white marbles, and one with 50 black marbles. You are allowed to redistribute the marbles however you wish (e.g. swap a black marble with a white marble, etc.) The only requirement is that after you are done with the redistribution, every marble must be in one of the two jars.
Afterwards, both jars will be shaken up, and you will be blindfolded and presented with one of the jars at random. Then you will pick one marble out of the jar given to you.
If the marble you pull out is white, you live; if black, you die.
How should you redistribute the marbles to maximize the probability that you live?
Without doing any fancy math, I think I would put one white marble in one jar, and the other 99 marbles in the other.
There’s a 50% chance of a 100% chance that I’ll live, and a 50% chance of a 49.5% chance that I’ll live.
This assumes that my captors are, of course, straight up and would be just as likely to give me the jar w/ one marble in it as the other.
I have no idea if this is correct, it just what I would do given short notice.
That’s the best answer. [/quote]
Screw that! Why don’t they just shoot you? I’ve got a gun in my room. I’ll go get it and shoot you myself! I mean, why come up with some elaborate scheme to execute you when we know you will only escape as soon as we turn our backs.
DB