Cultural Change Devours the GOP

Off Topic Politics and World Issues
1

Very interesting post from paleocon blogger Daniel Larison:

The reason that voters under the age of 30 are now significantly more Democratic than older voters is that they are much less likely to be married, white, and Christian. ~Alan Abramowitz

Steve Sailer�??s article in February identified the strong correlations between marriage and children, and the affordability of both, and support for Republican candidates. This would seem to confirm that finding in a dramatic way, and it reveals much more profound long-term problems for Republicans and cultural conservatives in the coming decades. It shows that the collapse of party identification with the Republicans in my age group is the result of significant structural changes in the rising generation. Bush�??s misrule and the war in Iraq are likely compounding factors, reinforcing the existing tendency of unmarried, non-Christian and nonwhite voters to support the Democrats, but probably even if these had never happened the pro-Democratic leaning of most 18-29 year olds today would be roughly what it is. The deeper problem for the GOP is that there is not really much that it can do about this. Meanwhile, this trend reveals the bankruptcy of trying to fight the culture war primarily through political means. Not only has little concrete progress been made, but while the GOP has been biding its time and using cultural conservatives to win elections the next generation has become a naturally pro-Democratic constituency for the reasons Sailer has outlined. Furthermore, even if the rising generation ends up marrying and even becoming regular church-goers in the future, voting patterns tend to be set early in life, which means that this generation is not going to come back to the GOP later. Beyond that, as marriage is generally being put off longer and longer for professional or other reasons, this pattern will keep recurring with every new cohort of 18-29 year olds. Cultural change has devoured the future of the Republican Party as it exists today. This is somewhat fitting, since it never saw fit to do much more than strike poses about culture change in any case.

http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/02/culture-wins-again/

Key sentence: Meanwhile, this trend reveals the bankruptcy of trying to fight the culture war primarily through political means.

2

This is an interview about the “leave me alone coalition”.

I think this is the future of the GOP, if it has any.

Also, a lot of Hispanic and black people would vote republican if they republicans actually gave them the feeling they were welcome.

3

I thought it was because of TV and school teachers trying to indoctrinate everyone. Who posted that thing about social queues? Did I spell that right?

Anyways, the gist of it is that people are likely to follow what the group is doing, and I have seen a shift as to what is portrayed as normal on TV, from a fairly conservative leave it to beaver, to a fairly liberal everything on now.

For example on Scrubs, blond doctor says shes a republican, but is ashamed/embarrassed by it, like she is some kind of freak because of it.

4

[quote]orion wrote:

This is an interview about the “leave me alone coalition”.

I think this is the future of the GOP, if it has any.

Also, a lot of Hispanic and black people would vote republican if they republicans actually gave them the feeling they were welcome.[/quote]

What would that entail?

5

[quote]PRCalDude wrote:
orion wrote:

This is an interview about the “leave me alone coalition”.

I think this is the future of the GOP, if it has any.

Also, a lot of Hispanic and black people would vote republican if they republicans actually gave them the feeling they were welcome.

What would that entail? [/quote]

Not proclaiming that the end is nigh when Hispanics have their own tv stations or immigrate en masse into the US would be a start.

They are as conservative and Christian as they come.

6

[quote]orion wrote:
PRCalDude wrote:
orion wrote:

This is an interview about the “leave me alone coalition”.

I think this is the future of the GOP, if it has any.

Also, a lot of Hispanic and black people would vote republican if they republicans actually gave them the feeling they were welcome.

What would that entail?

Not proclaiming that the end is nigh when Hispanics have their own tv stations or immigrate en masse into the US would be a start.

They are as conservative and Christian as they come.

[/quote]

Legal, or illegl?

7

[quote]Sloth wrote:
orion wrote:
PRCalDude wrote:
orion wrote:

This is an interview about the “leave me alone coalition”.

I think this is the future of the GOP, if it has any.

Also, a lot of Hispanic and black people would vote republican if they republicans actually gave them the feeling they were welcome.

What would that entail?

Not proclaiming that the end is nigh when Hispanics have their own tv stations or immigrate en masse into the US would be a start.

They are as conservative and Christian as they come.

Legal, or illegl? [/quote]

Both.

The illegal ones are the ones with the entrepreneurial spirit.

Deeply Republican, if you let them.

8

[quote]orion wrote:
Sloth wrote:
orion wrote:
PRCalDude wrote:
orion wrote:

This is an interview about the “leave me alone coalition”.

I think this is the future of the GOP, if it has any.

Also, a lot of Hispanic and black people would vote republican if they republicans actually gave them the feeling they were welcome.

What would that entail?

Not proclaiming that the end is nigh when Hispanics have their own tv stations or immigrate en masse into the US would be a start.

They are as conservative and Christian as they come.

Legal, or illegl?

Both.

The illegal ones are the ones with the entrepreneurial spirit.

Deeply Republican, if you let them.

[/quote]

From what I’ve experienced, and read, they’re (illegals) the one’s costing taxpayer’s more than they contribute to the economy. Between health services, school costs, motor vehicle accidents, crime (including stealing identies), children facing worse social outcomes than natives/legal immigrants. Etc.

I don’t see how sneaking into a country, living off of taxpayers, sending your money home to another country, and third worlding neighborhood after neighborhood with crime, trash, gangs, alcoholism, drugs, higher out of wedlock birth-rates, etc., is conservative. And Conservatism in America is traditionally protective of borders, cautious on immigration, and culturally conservative. All things an illegal immigrant obviously doesn’t respect.

9

[quote]GDollars37 wrote:
Very interesting post from paleocon blogger Daniel Larison:

The reason that voters under the age of 30 are now significantly more Democratic than older voters is that they are much less likely to be married, white, and Christian. ~Alan Abramowitz

Steve Sailer�??s article in February identified the strong correlations between marriage and children, and the affordability of both, and support for Republican candidates. This would seem to confirm that finding in a dramatic way, and it reveals much more profound long-term problems for Republicans and cultural conservatives in the coming decades. It shows that the collapse of party identification with the Republicans in my age group is the result of significant structural changes in the rising generation. Bush�??s misrule and the war in Iraq are likely compounding factors, reinforcing the existing tendency of unmarried, non-Christian and nonwhite voters to support the Democrats, but probably even if these had never happened the pro-Democratic leaning of most 18-29 year olds today would be roughly what it is. The deeper problem for the GOP is that there is not really much that it can do about this. Meanwhile, this trend reveals the bankruptcy of trying to fight the culture war primarily through political means. Not only has little concrete progress been made, but while the GOP has been biding its time and using cultural conservatives to win elections the next generation has become a naturally pro-Democratic constituency for the reasons Sailer has outlined. Furthermore, even if the rising generation ends up marrying and even becoming regular church-goers in the future, voting patterns tend to be set early in life, which means that this generation is not going to come back to the GOP later. Beyond that, as marriage is generally being put off longer and longer for professional or other reasons, this pattern will keep recurring with every new cohort of 18-29 year olds. Cultural change has devoured the future of the Republican Party as it exists today. This is somewhat fitting, since it never saw fit to do much more than strike poses about culture change in any case.

http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/02/culture-wins-again/

Key sentence: Meanwhile, this trend reveals the bankruptcy of trying to fight the culture war primarily through political means.[/quote]

Pretty far-fetched stuff.

  1. If voting patterns are set early in life, why are middle-aged people more conservative generally? Younger people have consistently polled more liberal than their elders, for at least as long as I’ve been alive and paying attention, and yet the wave somehow hasn’t crashed. Must be because all those young people aren’t voting - that would resolve the apparent paradox - either that or the conclusion is just false.

  2. The GOP’s biggest problem is that they’ve abandoned conservatism for pork and Democrat-light proposals, just like they used to do pre-Gingrich - you know, back when they were out of power for about 40 years.