Jesus this article is depressing. I found out today that a girl in my class (graduated with just 24 so we know everyone well) has both parents infected and it’s unlikely her dad will survive. He did have other health complications previously and my guess would be he’s around 65.
“But Left barely spoken is the explicit economic threat: a depression-like downturn rivaling the 1930s — prolonged double-digit joblessness, an unprecedented economic contraction, and widespread bankruptcy.
The reason for the grim economic outlook is, oddly enough, the government’s very concentration of its financial cannons on the economy. When the government shows it has a convincing regime in place to restrain the virus — massive, population-wide testing, and a way to trace and quarantine those with whom victims have been in contact — the markets will gain confidence, and a floor will be created underneath the economic collapse. Until then, we are looking at the current freefall.”
" Much is made of the unusual nature of this downturn caused by a pandemic — that in effect, it’s an induced coma. The implication is that if and when the shutdown orders are lifted, business will revert to normal. But that’s not necessarily true. The airline industry is an example: Since the arrival of the virus, flights have continued on a limited basis, but planes are flying nearly empty. Even though people can fly, they aren’t doing so. Combined, the pre-virus condition of the economy, and Covid-19 on top of it, add up to a malaise that won’t vanish by lifting shutdown orders. “It’s not clear that businesses would stay open if the shutdowns were lifted. No one is going to go out because they will worry about the disease,”
“A key worry today is the tendency of pandemics and the economic reverberations from them to repeatedly return. During the Spanish Flu, the second wave was, in fact, deadlier than the first, a mutation that killed 195,000 Americans just in the month of October 1918, 28% of the total of 675,000 American deaths. In the case of the coronavirus, a second wave has already struck Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, all of which got through the initial outbreak with few cases by imposing stringent control measures learned in the 2002 SARS virus, but in mid-March were hit by a new spike of Covid-19.”
Id guess >40% of Americans have one or more of the underlying conditions listed on that document. It’s scary that numbers will continue to get worse for a week or more before anyone expects them to get better.
Are there similar numbers describing patients requiring hospitalization, in the same place you found that document?
What sucks is we discussed quite a bit in here that over-reacting might in the long run lead to way less economic pain than doing what we have. We kept things going as long as we could because if we briefly stopped it would hurt people. Instead it’s far likely we will be shutdown even longer because of that hesitation. The economic significance was always going to come down to length of shutdown/social distancing instead of when.
Hindsight 20/20 and all but this was being pointed out a while ago. If quicker action lead to a decrease of say 30 days the economic damage would be significantly less. Let alone the health implications.
By his own admission, back in January dr. Yaneer Bar-Yam tried to convince several insiders in the Trump administration to institute a total five week shutdown once it was impossible to identify cases by contact tracing and large scale testing.
A finite shutdown with a known end date would have a dramatically lower impact on the economy as most small businesses could survive five weeks.
The difference between 35 days down or 70 days down would be hard to calculate but we all know the massive significance to the economy. Things will be bad if we shut down now was weighed way more heavily than things will be worse if we don’t shut down now.
Like I said hindsight 20/20 but if a bunch of joes on a lifting forum recognized the possibility I would expect people in power positions to do the same.
I wonder of those how many of the underlying issues where due to being overweight. I was reading a twitter thread where most doctors said their patients were above 30%.
Gun retailers are considered an essential service in the US. One former ATF officer who is now a consultant has the concern that an increase in new gun owners will increase the incompetence level in how they are used. The concern is that just because people have (a) gun(s) doesn’t mean they are already instructed in their use and storage.
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Double posted in ‘The Tactical Life’ in Combat.
I’m stunned. A guy that made a living as an opponent of firearms, and is now with another anti-gun group, is concerned about an increase in gun owners.