The coronavirus pandemic is a “devastating blow” for the world economy, according to World Bank President David Malpass.
Mr Malpass warned that billions of people would have their livelihoods affected by the pandemic.
He said that the economic fallout could last for a decade.
In May, Mr Malpass warned that 60 million people could be pushed into “extreme poverty” by the effects of coronavirus.
Of course it’s a bit of a stretch to say that people in the US will be starving, but in poor countries many already are and it’s on track to get worse.
Maybe you have a point that it’s no use lamenting on what could have been done differently in the past months, we’re here now and we need to deal with it. But the right moves need to be made now, and in many cases that’s not what’s happening.
Going to go ahead and guess that most of the developed world which didn’t give a shit about these places before coronavirus aren’t going to change much post coronavirus. Maybe you should petition your leaders to increase aid and resources to them? Mobilize your country to help these people? Just thinking out loud.
What are the right moves? Who’s not making them? Canada? All over the country Canada is making bad moves? You should blame your leaders. These poor countries? Have their shutdowns all been the same? How long did they last? What should they have done differently and how do you know? What should they do now and how do you know?
I’m not sure what you expected. I don’t think anyone in the world thought a global pandemic wouldn’t have huge economic consequences. That was going to happen no matter what. Shutting places down didn’t create economic consequences, that was going to happen either way. What if shutting down for a shorter period of time when a country did would have had less than waiting three more months? These are impossible scenarios to know.
What if my county which still had people working the entire time couldn’t have even had essential workers working? What if that’s the scenario that shutting down nothing created? Instead of 5% infected in an area it was 75%? Do you think the economic consequences would be less? What about long term?
I wouldn’t say no use lamenting on the past we can question it of course, but we can’t create an alternative universe or anything. No one agreed on what to do when it came. Countries or other leaders. And a lot of people argue NOW about what to do. How should certain places open back up? With zero thought? Everyone just pretend it’s last June and not this one? You can open up every movie theater, theme park, casino in the world and they are going to have reduced numbers because some people won’t feel comfortable at this point going. Shutdowns didn’t create that feeling a global pandemic did. You couldn’t have had zero economic consequences no matter what happened.
Basically again it still seems really early to try to Monday morning quarterback this one. And it seems odd to have the assumption that someone knows the right moves with all certainty now. If they do I think we should make them leader of the world and not Bill Gates (I kid).
How does one get things back to normal and does that have no risk? Does it make sense after a shutdown because of a global pandemic to rush out and say “everyone quick don’t make any short term changes to the way you do things because it might have economic consequences!” Hell places originally didn’t shutdown because of economic consequences and that may have actually made them worse in the long run. And what if opening with some measure of caution prevents another one? We have no idea.
You have private businesses all over (without the government telling them they have to) doing things differently because they know if their workers get sick or their plant has to shutdown that is worse for them. They haven’t forgotten that a global pandemic happened and that it didn’t go away the moment a place shutdown and it didn’t go away the moment it opened. The only way to go back to normal right now is get one of those MIB memory wiper things and take it across the whole world. And then I guess hope people don’t want to shutdown when they realize they are in a pandemic.
I’m not really trying to argue against some aspects of what you’re saying in the least bit. Hell I want things to go back the way they used to. I want to be going to concerts this summer right beside people, pro baseball games in packed stadiums, etc. I’m thrilled that as far as I can tell every single business in my area has reopened. But I can’t pretend to know exactly the right thing for our state to do let alone our country. I couldn’t imagine thinking I ever knew what the entire world SHOULD have done and what they should now. It’s just not that simple. Sometimes questions simply don’t have correct answers.
Sorry I never responded, but the CDC’s link with updated information is linked in the second sentence of the article.
Provides Covid deaths, deaths from all causes, percent of expected deaths, pneumonia deaths, deaths of pneumonia and covid, deaths with flu, or a combined deaths with flu or covid or pneumonia.
We will see how it ends up, but where we are now is not yet the final result.
I do.
Of course it varies from one country to another, but the point is that the global economy is taking a big hit. Even some places that had minimal shutdown measures could still potentially be seriously affected. Again, this is only the beginning.
And I agree with most of what you are saying too, I just posted that because you mentioned people who were saying that this would be the next great depression but it turns out that it might not be so far from the truth.
Not disagreeing, but again I would reiterate that a lot of this has to do with a global pandemic happening and not solely the response to a global pandemic. And that the long term economic consequences could be smaller when doing something than when doing nothing (although we will never know).
For sure the pandemic would have negatively affected the economy no matter what the response was, all I’m saying is that from this point forward we need an approach that will minimize the number of deaths (not prevent infections at all costs) while minimizing negative effects on the economy.
Like @CMdad said earlier, here in Canada they have shifted from “flattening the curve” to trying to stop any infections at all, but what really needs (and needed) to be done was prevent the elderly and those with serious health conditions from getting infected. When you have cities with zero known infections still shut down, it seems to me that something isn’t right.
What do you mean by shut down? Like cities with zero infections and nothing is open? Perhaps I forgot but I believe you had said no place in Canada ever really shut down completely and essential workers and businesses were always open.
I’m not familiar with Canada’s response initially or right now. I guess I would be surprised to find out that Canada has places with zero infections and all activity is completely shut down.
It seems from what I’ve read you guys are taking a more cautious and measured response than the US. Some articles even praise you for your response. Given our number of cases and deaths perhaps having a desire to emulate our “fuck it anything goes again” isn’t the way to go.
“Shutdown” is the term being used these days. No, there was never a time when absolutely everything was closed and you couldn’t go outside, but certain businesses and public facilities are still closed or off limits and various other restrictions are in place. It varies between provinces, a lot more things are open in Quebec (which actually had the most cases by far) than in Ontario. Over here, things like barber shops and play structures at parks are closed/off limits and they just extended the measures for another 14 days despite people like Ottawa’s mayor calling for an end to it.
Yeah but maybe a bit too cautious in some places. And oddly enough it’s Quebec that was the first to ease up the restrictions despite being the hardest hit. According to some polls, most people there aren’t afraid of the virus, so that might have something to do with it. I don’t follow the French-language media, but maybe they were giving a different sort of perspective on things.
From what I have seen, almost everywhere 80%+ of deaths were in nursing homes. “Fuck it anything goes” is certainly not a bright idea and not what I’m advocating for, just get rid of unnecessary restrictions and do what it takes to actually protect those at risk.
As far as Ontario goes, the issue is that the provincial government is calling the shots and they are being extremely cautious. Like I said, Ottawa barely has any cases anymore and other cities and towns have zero. The Toronto area is the only place where there is still a significant number of cases, so why not ease up restrictions in the rest of the province? Quebec did that, easing things up outside of Montreal because elsewhere the number of cases was way down. Why not restrict non-essential travel in and out of Toronto? Several provinces had closed their borders to non-essential travel, it would be easier to do that for one region than the entire province.
Could be. Again we don’t really know the right answer. To me having places shutdown for a bit like most of at least Canada and the USA did means their response to opening should be measured and cautious. After all the point of those was never to close down for a bit and then upon opening pretend coronavirus never happened. To me that seems like a potential to throw us back into a shutdown.
Now we could argue for days about the proper way to open and clearly as you’ve pointed out just like her places aren’t all doing this in the same manner. Which makes sense to me in that local leaders should know their individual situations best.
I also think the idea that the economy right now is significantly hurt by some of these restrictions is overstated. Some places here still aren’t letting unlimited people in, but I don’t see too many people saying well I can’t get groceries, a tattoo, or my nails done. More inconvenient than it used too be? Sure for the time being. Don’t think it will be this way for forever. Again you can open every theme park, sporting event whatever with zero restrictions and it isn’t going to change the simple fact that a lot of people aren’t going to put themselves at risk to do those things at this point. You can’t make everything go back to the way it was last June at this point simply by saying no restrictions. A lot of people have changed and will change their behavior until they feel it is more safe.
In Ontario you can’t get a tattoo or your nails done.
If people are scared then they can decide what to do on their own. Obviously things can’t immediately go back to normal as if nothing happened, but like I’m saying in some places it’s dragging on too long and they are basically planning on keeping a lot of restrictions for the foreseeable future.
You have kids, what’s the deal with school in Kansas, or elsewhere around there? In Ontario it’s closed until September but the other day I got an e-mail saying that while they are still working out the details they plan to have kids go to school either on alternating days or weeks to maintain “social distancing”. How are you supposed to manage your work schedule with something like that? I have two kids, it could end up that one is always at home. Some people have more than two.
I could understand if it was killing kids, but none have died in Canada and only a couple around the world, I tried to search and saw 3 kids suspected to have died from COVID in New York, nothing else. Kids die from the flu too, and in higher numbers from what I can see, so what use is this really? What are your thoughts?
I think the type of restrictions is what’s important. You said if people are scared they can decide what to do on their own which is true. But what I’m saying is “restrictions” isn’t holding the economy back in some areas. Which is why I say you can’t force things back to normal. Again open everything with zero restrictions make it just like June of last year and you’re still going to see economic pain in many areas. Why? Because a shit ton of people aren’t going to go to crowded places right now. So you’re looking at increased risk of a second shutdown while also not having the magic “hot economy back” button.
So you’re saying people can decide what to do on their own but also saying we need to get back to normal for the sake of the economy. Like I said I think you’re going to have economic pain in the coming months because we’re still in a global pandemic. And companies and individuals even if government didn’t exist would change their behavior because of it.
Like I said I’m not familiar with what all Canada is doing and where and the things you’ve said about certain areas doing one thing that others aren’t despite the cases doesn’t make much sense to me on the surface. But we’ve had a much more laid back approach than you guys in terms of how we shutdown or changed our behavior and how we opened up. You can find articles praising your country for how they responded in comparison to us. Not sure we can find many articles that say something along the lines of Canada should model the US in their response.
I’d say it will be business as usual school wise in Kansas on the whole. I mean some things will certainly change but I don’t foresee what you’re talking about. I also think September is a long ways away in pandemic terms and where we’ve gone. Who knows what cases will look like then and if we’ve essentially solved testing in the sense of its rapid and easily available nationwide that changes everything. Kansas schools are already starting to have kids do conditioning and stuff with safety guidelines.
My daughter isn’t old enough to go to school yet FYI.
I think this has far less to do with our kids will die than another super spreader incident. A medium sized school district in Kansas might have 4,000 people in the building areas (kids plus teacher and support staff like bus drivers, cafeteria, janitors). So even if kids say have a 0% chance of having negative effects (not true but for this hypothetical) you’re looking at them exposing their parents or teachers who expose co workers who expose others etc.). Now your kids are fine but your businesses are all forced to shutdown and your local community is dealing with a health crisis.
Yes, economic problems are unavoidable in a situation like this. We need to get as close as possible to normal to minimize the damage.
That sounds much better than what they are doing here. Of course it’s possible that plans will change before September, but they are saying they will have a plan by the end of the month. The Ontario provincial government seems averse to changing their minds, as I have been saying, so I expect the worst.
What’s the logic in Kansas for not doing something like Ontario then?
What you say makes sense, but again it could be dealt with another way. Teachers that are at high risk for complications or death should stay home, maybe encourage some kind of social distancing between kids and high risk family members. It does sound problematic, but it’s not as bad as making a large proportion of parents quit working or only work part time.
I would say more but it’s late and I’m going to bed.
I don’t disagree, but I think what normal means in the short term at least is where I might. I simply don’t think opening everything without thought to the virus is the way to go. I’d way rather see careful measured responses knowing we aren’t through this and we don’t want another shutdown than pretending it isn’t there for the sake of the economy.
Of course I think the economic impacts of these decisions matter, but I also think we shouldn’t play the short game. I’ll still say that if we had shut down here earlier we might be way ahead of where we are at. The reason we waited until we did was because of the economy. And although it’s impossible to know the economic impacts of that decision in the long run may be far worse than what we might have had.
Ultimately probably not much logic. We’re fucking Americans dude. We weren’t really following many of the rules when they were in place. We’ve essentially at this point said fuck it we tried to not be selfish for a short bit and it sucked ass. We’re just going to go right back to the way we were and hope for the best.
I mean you’re asking that question when our Vice President went to the Mayo Clinic and violated their mask policy? When our president has basically made not wearing a mask a campaign slogan? Again not sure we’re the place you want to be emulating right now in how to respond to a pandemic. From our highest leaders right down to average joes.
No doubt. Tons of different ways of dealing with this. Like I said your schools may do vastly different things based on their situation when it gets closer. Obviously the vaccine is the big ticket, but if testing gets figured out to me your options for what you can try really multiply. Right now the hardest part is if you’ve got 4,000 people in somewhat close contact at a school you have no idea who may have it if they aren’t showing symptoms. By the time they spread it to 10 who spread it to 10 more etc you may be looking at your town shutting down schools and businesses. Even if you’re not looking at a lot of deaths if you want to say high risk people aren’t getting it as much.
All I know is that whatever my opinion happens to be, I will be wrong somehow. I wouldn’t want to expose myself to COVID (or get tear gassed), and I guess that’s not a good enough reason for me to stay home?
Everyone is perpetuating two different priorities, but if we tackle both at the same time I have the sinking feeling neither will get anywhere.
POCs are dying 240% faster than white people from the economic and social complications of COVID (and also the disease). I feel that these protests will only increase that rate, at least in the MSM.
But then we ask ourselves, what’s the bigger problem - the threat of disproportionately and ethnically targeted police brutality or COVID?
I say that I don’t know because I’ve never been subject to either.
I feel like that’s the only right answer for me to have based on the color of my skin.
I’m really interested to see how we reflect upon this 5-10 years from now. What went right and what went wrong? Was the whole thing botched right off the rip?
Honestly, stuff like this just tells me we still don’t have a good grasp at all of what we are dealing with. Why wouldn’t you take take a simple, easy precaution if it could help?
Mask wearing is NOT the hill you want to die on. The hill to die on is not opening businesses soon enough.
