Likewise, I was, at a point, a student Trotskyite.
Getting back on topic, this story about Sweden not totally shutting down like elsewhere;
They believe that going on a high level of social trust is adequate, at least for now, and then when things cool off they will be in a better position to get life and economy going again.
They could well be right. It is certainly a gamble though. The U.K. was attempting something like this until the ICL model indicated it would kill hundreds of thousands.
Edit: it must also be noted that that Sweden isnāt the same as, say London, for inward migration in winter.
I think this is a bit of a stretch. Youāre absolutely saving lives right now if you are limiting the spread. āBuying timeā is the entire point. Itās not a prevention in terms of not being able to get it. It never has been. If 500,000 Americans would get it on current status by May, but 2 million would get it if doing nothing youāre saving a shit ton of lives. Maybe not all a shit ton of lives from Coronavirus but everything else that requires significant medical attention.
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Good article. AG touched on this briefly in his thread when the possibility of reinfection came up, and he said we donāt know whether itās a problem with the testing or actual reinfection. This gives a bit more explanation on why it could be happening. Emphasis, COULD beā¦we still donāt know the immunity angle either
This is a particularly useful quote here:
āLook at the big picture, not a single piece of data. Triangulate on the truth, using all the sources of information you haveā
This is what research and medicine do. Itās another way of saying what I said earlierāwork converges on the accurate answer over time and iterations. Itās very common for initial answers to be all over the map. Too many unknowns.
How many diseases have you died from already?
Just have faith in Trumpbamaushtonushgan.
I would be shocked if there isnāt a viable vaccine available within a year.
This article is talking about some of the finer (general) points and problems encountered in mathematical modeling. It is a very good article, but it needs to be read CAREFULLY and parsed. I actually suggest reading the comments on this one, as some are valuable.
Itās worth noting that I am NOT a modelerāmy concern has always been āwet workā, or actual biochemical and structural data generation gotten by doing actual experiments. Basically Iām an empiricist. Modelling is very valuable for events like the ones we are undergoing currently, and it can hold many insights.
However, one needs to be very careful when drawing conclusions because as Dr. Birx has said several times in briefings āmodels are only as good as their assumptionsā. In other words, even given perfect mathematics (not something feasible in any complex model), the assumptions made in creating the model determine both its usefulness and its accuracy (as well as precision, when applicable). This is where it gets very messy. Ultimately just like theoretical physics, the theory (or model) is only as useful as far as the experiments (or empirical data) validate it. It may validate any theory/model in partā¦say certain premises or behaviors, in whole, or not at all.
As an aside (and PLEASE nobody go there in this thread!!) this is a snapshot of the many difficulties with modeling the climate and its effects. Modeling a pandemic is extremely easy compared to that undertaking. This is where some of the debate goes in that field.
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I wouldnāt be.
But neither would I be shocked if we do come up with some good treatments. It is a fortunate fact that the scientific community across both academic and corporate sectors are working together and hard in ways never seen before. This is a good model for solving hard problems.
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Imagine if the same motivation continued after Covid-19 to tackle Hepatitis C, HIV and Herpes.
There have been all kinds of attempts funded by private and public money, but two of those elude the immune system.
Thatās quite true. Iām sorry to say I remain a pessimist on that count though. āUrgencyā has a way of breaking down barriers that āimportanceā does not. when a problem is both urgent and important it tends to get this kind of treatment, and then the barriers reassert themselves unfortunately
Weāve got several choices when it comes to dick pills, so thereās that.
Agreed. Itās crazy how much can be done when everyone agrees a problem needs immediate attention. But this is basically effecting everyone and essentially all at once.
Once itās done I have full faith we will go back to only bitching about things that effect us.
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AND Pancreatic Cancer/Diabetes.
(Nowā¦the only reason I mention these, @DeadKong, is that there are still viral hypotheses being floated around about both, in addition to the Auto-Immune hypotheses; with some auto-immune hypotheses suggesting a viral ātriggerā).
Damn, i am pissed with Facebook. I wasnāt logged in all day, and I just got an email that several new notifications were waiting. I logged, the red icon said 5 notifications, I clicked on it and there was fuck all. Nothing.
Sorry, I had to rant.
Iām not sure. Maybe theyāre waiting on medical history or test results?
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Should have thought of them not having medical history available for emergency or overflow cases. Good call.
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Here is another factor that needs to be thought aboutāthe effect this is going to have on other well known viruses.
And also the, now deemed, unessential treatments. Out patient cancer therapy etc.
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