China Gets Ready

rainjack · December 10, 2008, 1:46pm

[quote]orion wrote:
How would the Chinese be immune to a global crisis if I where correct?

Did I not write that their would need to be a major shift in their industry and that they would have to swallow that you will default on your debt?

They will go through a world of hurt but unlike the US they will come out of it stronger as they came in.

The US however will only go through a world of hurt.[/quote]

The US is not defaulting on any debt. The EU is in much the same position as we are.

China’s wealth is lavished on a very, very small portion of the population. There are still hundreds of millions of Chinese who are living the same way they have lived for centuries: subsistence farming.

You make it sound as simple as retooling, and making shit for them. It’s not going to happen. China’s safest bet is to keep catering to the yanks until they have increased the standard of living for the majority of their population. They know this, as does most everyone else with the exception of those praying for the collapse of the US.

I love the way you point your finger at the US while the EU is swimming in the same fucking pool.

orion · December 10, 2008, 4:54pm

[quote]rainjack wrote:
orion wrote:
How would the Chinese be immune to a global crisis if I where correct?

Did I not write that their would need to be a major shift in their industry and that they would have to swallow that you will default on your debt?

They will go through a world of hurt but unlike the US they will come out of it stronger as they came in.

The US however will only go through a world of hurt.

The US is not defaulting on any debt. The EU is in much the same position as we are.

China’s wealth is lavished on a very, very small portion of the population. There are still hundreds of millions of Chinese who are living the same way they have lived for centuries: subsistence farming.

You make it sound as simple as retooling, and making shit for them. It’s not going to happen. China’s safest bet is to keep catering to the yanks until they have increased the standard of living for the majority of their population. They know this, as does most everyone else with the exception of those praying for the collapse of the US.

I love the way you point your finger at the US while the EU is swimming in the same fucking pool. [/quote]

Quite frankly the EU is not in the same boat.

First, we do not create massive amounts of money that constantly create problems in our economy. The ECB is unable to do so unless a majority of European nations would agree, which is highly unlikely at the moment.

Then, we do not constantly fight wars that need to be financed via inflation or cheap interest.

Our savings rates are higher, our inflation is lower, our productivity and inflation numbers tend to be at least somewhat reliable…

And finally nobody prays for the US to collapse, but if the US collapsing is the only way the US stops the constant warmongering we will not be too unhappy if such a thing should happen.

rainjack · December 10, 2008, 9:52pm

[quote]orion wrote:
Quite frankly the EU is not in the same boat.[/quote]

Looks like it from here.

No - you just create an entire currency that is as baseless as you accuse the dollar of being.

You bailed out the Euro banks, just like we did. With what? Created money.

No you don’t. You pussies set on the sideline, let the US carry all the water, then bitch about the wars. You’ve done it for 60 years.

Short term. It wasn’t very long ago that you guys were sucking major ass in the world economy. Like I said, it is cyclical.

[quote]And finally nobody prays for the US to collapse, but if the US collapsing is the only way the US stops the constant warmongering we will not be too unhappy if such a thing should happen.
[/quote]

Constant warmongering? 5 years is constant war mongering?

We do the shit you guys can’t do. We defend Europe with our money, while you guys bitch about it.

Europe is not immune to the global slowdown. A simple look around would be all the simplest of minds would need to understand that.

But you want it to be the fault of the US. It’s not. Maybe the Euro should go on the gold standard. Why aren’t they? What is the Euro backed with? And you’re not in the same boat? Wake up.

4_13 · December 10, 2008, 10:15pm

[quote]rainjack wrote:
There are still hundreds of millions of Chinese who are living the same way they have lived for centuries: subsistence farming.
[/quote]

Sorry for jumping in the middle of the thread. I didn’t read all the posts but the statement above is just wrong. I’ll give the benefit of a doubt and say that you were just exaggerating.

Believe it or not, the percentage of the population living below the poverty line is lower in China than in the US (CIA World Factbook). Even if we were to consider China’s enormous population, this would still not make up the “hundreds of millions” that you have stated.

Heck, China now produces more than enough wheat to feed its entire population that its exporting wheat now.

Sorry your view of China is still stuck somewhere around the Cultural Revolution or something. Your view will change if you ever decide to go visit China like I have.(I’m not Chinese btw)

rainjack · December 10, 2008, 10:27pm

[quote]4-13 wrote:
rainjack wrote:
There are still hundreds of millions of Chinese who are living the same way they have lived for centuries: subsistence farming.

Sorry for jumping in the middle of the thread. I didn’t read all the posts but the statement above is just wrong. I’ll give the benefit of a doubt and say that you were just exaggerating.

Believe it or not, the percentage of the population living below the poverty line is lower in China than in the US (CIA World Factbook). Even if we were to consider China’s enormous population, this would still not make up the “hundreds of millions” that you have stated.

Heck, China now produces more than enough wheat to feed its entire population that its exporting wheat now.

Sorry your view of China is still stuck somewhere around the Cultural Revolution or something. Your view will change if you ever decide to go visit China like I have.(I’m not Chinese btw)[/quote]

Define poverty line. I find it hard to believe that there is a greater percentage of people in China with cell phones than there is in the US.

The poverty line in the US is immeasurable wealth in other countries.

Wheat is hardly the bellwether commodity to determine the economic health of a nation.

Try harder.

EDIT:

Google “Chinese Poverty Line”. On the first page, you should see this link: China To Raise Poverty Line

The Chinese government is proposing to RAISE the poverty line to 1300 yuan. Any idea how much money 1300 yuan is? According to the article, it’s about $185.

Thanks for playing.

4_13 · December 10, 2008, 10:45pm

[quote]rainjack wrote:
4-13 wrote:
rainjack wrote:
There are still hundreds of millions of Chinese who are living the same way they have lived for centuries: subsistence farming.

Sorry for jumping in the middle of the thread. I didn’t read all the posts but the statement above is just wrong. I’ll give the benefit of a doubt and say that you were just exaggerating.

Believe it or not, the percentage of the population living below the poverty line is lower in China than in the US (CIA World Factbook). Even if we were to consider China’s enormous population, this would still not make up the “hundreds of millions” that you have stated.

Heck, China now produces more than enough wheat to feed its entire population that its exporting wheat now.

Sorry your view of China is still stuck somewhere around the Cultural Revolution or something. Your view will change if you ever decide to go visit China like I have.(I’m not Chinese btw)

Define poverty line. I find it hard to believe that there is a greater percentage of people in China with cell phones than there is in the US.

The poverty line in the US is immeasurable wealth in other countries.

Wheat is hardly the bellwether commodity to determine the economic health of a nation.

Try harder.

EDIT:

Google “Chinese Poverty Line”. On the first page, you should see this link: China To Raise Poverty Line

The Chinese government is proposing to RAISE the poverty line to 1300 yuan. Any idea how much money 1300 yuan is? According to the article, it’s about $185.

Thanks for playing.
[/quote]

Err no need to get upset. Everything you posted still doesn’t prove that “hundreds of millions of Chinese” are still conducting subsistence farming. So you’ve pretty much lost already. My other points still stand as facts. You can work around them to make them say anything you want but they’re still there.

Thanks for playing.

rainjack · December 10, 2008, 10:55pm

[quote]4-13 wrote:
Err no need to get upset. Everything you posted still doesn’t prove that “hundreds of millions of Chinese” are still conducting subsistence farming. So you’ve pretty much lost already. My other points still stand as facts. You can work around them to make them say anything you want but they’re still there.

Thanks for playing.[/quote]

Errr - I’m not upset.

I posted a link. I didn’t quote anything.

What points have you made, other than to let everyone know you spent a week in Beijing, and now fashion yourself as an expert on the Chinese condition.

Did you stay in a Holiday Inn Express while you were there?

Neuromancer · December 10, 2008, 10:59pm

And that’s 185$ ANNUALLY.A bit like comparing apples and oranges.

rainjack · December 10, 2008, 11:01pm

http://www.hoover.org/research/factsonpolicy/facts/7944982.html

China has a very large economy, but ranks 107th in per capita income at about $7600.

The numbers side with me, Hotel Boy.

rainjack · December 10, 2008, 11:02pm

[quote]Neuromancer wrote:
And that’s 185$ ANNUALLY.A bit like comparing apples and oranges.[/quote]

No no - he’s BEEN there. You don’t know what the fuck you are talking about.

4_13 · December 10, 2008, 11:07pm

[quote]rainjack wrote:
4-13 wrote:
Err no need to get upset. Everything you posted still doesn’t prove that “hundreds of millions of Chinese” are still conducting subsistence farming. So you’ve pretty much lost already. My other points still stand as facts. You can work around them to make them say anything you want but they’re still there.

Thanks for playing.

Errr - I’m not upset.

I posted a link. I didn’t quote anything.

What points have you made, other than to let everyone know you spent a week in Beijing, and now fashion yourself as an expert on the Chinese condition.

Did you stay in a Holiday Inn Express while you were there? [/quote]

I like how you think you’re a mind reader now. No, I was actually in China for business purposes. I was there for 3 months going back and forth between Shenzhen and Hong Kong.

Besides all that… nice ad hominem. Instead of conceding that you were wrong about something (like a real man) you’ve decided to attack my character. Way to go! I know I hurt your internet ego but I’m not interested in having an argument over the internet with an e-thug.

That is all.

4_13 · December 10, 2008, 11:09pm

Oh yeah I forgot to mention… please stop the Red Herrings and stick with the discussion.

You said, “hundreds of millions of Chinese” are still conducting subsistence farming. You’re wrong. You’ve lost. Deal with it like a man and admit it.

rainjack · December 10, 2008, 11:12pm

[quote]4-13 wrote:
rainjack wrote:
4-13 wrote:
Err no need to get upset. Everything you posted still doesn’t prove that “hundreds of millions of Chinese” are still conducting subsistence farming. So you’ve pretty much lost already. My other points still stand as facts. You can work around them to make them say anything you want but they’re still there.

Thanks for playing.

Errr - I’m not upset.

I posted a link. I didn’t quote anything.

What points have you made, other than to let everyone know you spent a week in Beijing, and now fashion yourself as an expert on the Chinese condition.

Did you stay in a Holiday Inn Express while you were there?

I like how you think you’re a mind reader now. No, I was actually in China for business purposes. I was there for 3 months going back and forth between Shenzhen and Hong Kong.

Besides all that… nice ad hominem. Instead of conceding that you were wrong about something (like a real man) you’ve decided to attack my character. Way to go! I know I hurt your internet ego but I’m not interested in having an argument over the internet with an e-thug.

That is all.
[/quote]

I’ll concede I am wrong when I am wrong.

You haven’t proved shit. Other than to clarify that you traveled between the largest city in the world and another metropolis. You brought up your trip to China as if it made you more credible. Pardon me if I think it hilarious.

Your “travels” have nothing to do with Chinese agriculture.

You really don’t want to get into an agricultural discussion with me.

Do you even know what subsistence farming is?

rainjack · December 10, 2008, 11:31pm

Fang continued, “China’s poor population actually totals 150 million to 200 million, using the internationally accepted one US dollar per day guideline. This enormous number is much more than the Chinese official estimate. Therefore, poverty reduction still has a long way to go in China, and it will take the Chinese regime a very long time to correct its mistakes in poverty alleviation.”

http://en.epochtimes.com/news/7-10-5/60453.html

Rural population at the end of 2006 stood at more than 700 billion.

http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/xw/t374790.htm

Acres farmed per farm worker in China is less than 1 acre per worker.

http://74.125.47.132/search?q=cache:5fWAf7-fZqsJ:www.ers.usda.gov/publications/aib775/aib775p.pdf+Subsistence+Farming+China&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=2&gl=us&client=firefox-a

Now, can you come up with anything substantial to refute my claim that there are hundreds of millions of subsistence farmers? I mean aside from the fact that you traveled to really huge cities in China?

rainjack · December 10, 2008, 11:32pm

[quote]4-13 wrote:
Oh yeah I forgot to mention… please stop the Red Herrings and stick with the discussion.

You said, “hundreds of millions of Chinese” are still conducting subsistence farming. You’re wrong. You’ve lost. Deal with it like a man and admit it. [/quote]

Do you know what subsistence farming means?

I have provided links - all you need to do is read them - and understand what they are saying.

Either bring proof that I am wrong, or shut the fuck up.

winkel · December 11, 2008, 3:02am

I have lived in Shanghai for the last 13 years and can most certainly say the difference between what one sees in the big cities like Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen etc and the hinterland is like night and day.

Despite increasing urbanization over the last many years the countryside is still where the vast majority of the population lives and even if poverty might be taking it a little far (if we define poverty as inability to afford food and shelter only) there is certainly not a lot of excess means for which to buy consumer products.

The Chinese 1.2 billion people market is a myth.

4_13 · December 11, 2008, 7:50am

[quote]rainjack wrote:
4-13 wrote:
Oh yeah I forgot to mention… please stop the Red Herrings and stick with the discussion.

You said, “hundreds of millions of Chinese” are still conducting subsistence farming. You’re wrong. You’ve lost. Deal with it like a man and admit it.

Do you know what subsistence farming means?

I have provided links - all you need to do is read them - and understand what they are saying.

Either bring proof that I am wrong, or shut the fuck up. [/quote]

No I don’t know what subsistence farming is because I never got past highschool [/sarcasm]

I’m trying to make myself more credible by mentioning my experience in China? You need to reread my post. All I said was that you would get a different view of China if you visited it.

Please your obviously grasping at straws with all those posts you’ve made above. China has a large rural population… so what? Only a little over 300 million people (312m in 2003; I’m willing to bet that number has decreased by now) are employed in agriculture but you would have us believe that all of them are involved in subsistence farming. Heck, you would have us believe that the entire rural population is involved in farming.

http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/ce/ceph/eng/sgdt/t83682.htm

In 2001:
“The rural poor population has dropped from 96 million to 29.26 million, and its proportion to the total rural population has declined form 11 percent to 3 percent.”

In 1978-1985:
“the number of poverty-stricken people with problems feeding and clothing themselves decreased from 250 million to 125 million, to shrink to 14.8 percent of the total population in the rural areas; and the number of poverty-stricken people went down by 17.86 million annually on average.”

So yes, you would be right if we were living during the times of the Cultural Revoluation. But like I said, we’re not and your view of China is hopelessy outdated. Tens of millions conducting subsistence farming? Sure. “Hundreds of millions of Chinese” conducting subsistence farming? Nope.

Please keep in mind that there is incredible rate of people who are moving to urban areas - away from subsistence farming. Yes, I recognize they are still poor and yes, there are many people living in poverty but… they are no longer involved in subsistence farming.

Seriously, you should have been gracious and admit that you were just exagerrating or something but you’ve dug yourself into a deeper hole. Judging by your behavior on this thread, I’m willing to bet that your next post will involve you trying to redeem yourself in whatever way you can. Probably in the form of an ad hom involving the f-word. Hey but I could be wrong. Maybe you might man up.

orion · December 11, 2008, 7:10am

[quote]rainjack wrote:
orion wrote:
Quite frankly the EU is not in the same boat.