I don’t know where you are, but the masses aren’t taking it lightly where I am. Everything is being shut down, grocery stores are empty (because apparently none of these people have a pantry), and most offices are being closed one by one. If anything I think we’ve dramatically over reacted to the point where we are legitimately going to cause more long term harm than good.
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One question I have been asking is why not test symptomatic people for the stuff we know about already. If you have symptoms, and we know you don’t have the flu, strep, cold, etc… Then I would think you are very likely to have corona? Maybe they are doing this already? We don’t necessarily have to prove positive for corona to have a high percentage of correct diagnoses. Maybe they don’t want to flood the health care system, so they are saying we can’t test all of you yet?
I am not convinced that most viruses follow exponential growth long term. Maybe they do at the beginning, but they taper off.
Wikipedia says that it will start exponentially, but does not go into much detail other than that. I am open to evidence to the contrary.
At least by the pictures I have been seeing it is all old people getting treatment. Young turned away, which makes sense (they have much higher survival rates without treatment).
it tapers off because it reaches a point where there is less people to spread to.
basically proving the point that it will spread like wildfire anyway
Scientific modelling indicates due to the infectious nature of this virus, exponential growth is the most likely scenario (and this is what has been occuring)
However you’re right, after a certain number of people become infected (say 150 million on the US), herd immunity becomes present, the virus has trouble finding new hosts. This assumes that we mount a strong enough immune response, antibody production is adequate to create enough antibodies to prevent a second infection. WHO currently states people have tested positive twice (after not testing positive/recovering from initial infection), whether this is due to ACTUALLY contracting Covid-19 again or due to testing error is unknown.
What’s retarded about Australia is we won’t even test people with flu like symptoms unless they’ve been in contact with a known case. This is stupid, esp given how infectious the virus is (can probably be transmitted via air, stays alive on surfaces for days etc). Chances are we have MANY undetected/asymptomatic cases
Furthermore our country practically refuses to close down schools/universities (many of which would qualify as daily mass gatherings). Our chief medical officer, the government in power currently is very out of touch, unequipped to deal with this situation… At least they won’t get back in come re-election
With the herd immunity prospect (likely), we will still have like … Half the world infected prior to the growth curve slowing down. I’ll link some of the models, all state the growth curve will slow down eventually, but this is like after a very large portion of the populace has been infected… After many are dead
Not at all… well… probably not. young are far more likely to survive, but in the rare cases in which the younger patient is critically ill. An 85 y/o might die next year regardless, that 13 y/o kid has his whole life ahead of him. If his organs are failing vs the 85y/o, the 85y/o is getting tossed out, it’s an ethical dilema… But if we don’t have enough ventilators, ICU beds etc (this is exactly what’s happening) the young person will probably be prioritised
Day TWO of self isolation
Unscientific model, very simple, found online… But probably how this will look if we can’t contain it
Can link a study of which uses legitimate modelling, but it’s like 80 pages long
Whilst cases are increasing rapidly, we haven’t even started to experience the “exponential growth” part
If we can’t contain this virus (which we probably can’t) I imagine the trajectory will look like the Spanish flu (herd immunity)
Agreed and disagreed at the same time.
If everyone could dramatically over react, stay locked inside for 2-4 weeks, we would have this pandemic largely under control. If the government starts shutting everything down after 1,000 cases or so, people will only comply for so long. As the number of cases exponentially increase, it’ll be harder to control a freaked out populace with a lot of guns when the cases are 100 million +.
The hoarding is an over-reaction, as is the panic buying groceries, prescription meds etc (there’s a video here of people breaking out into a full on fight over toilet paper. Other case of these guys getting into a fight in the wine aisle… They fought using the bottles…). But shutting down mass gatherings, bars, clubs, schools etc is certainly a necessity to lessen the spread. Even if the same amount of people end up infected, slower spread equates to the healthcare system being less overwhelmed. Furthermore, preventative measures will probably reduce overall case numbers
For those who prefer a visual image
It is pivotal those under lockdown stay locked down aside from leaving for vital activities. Don’t be patient 31 (South Korea)
Destroying the global economy and sending a ton of nations into a full-fledged depression will, in aggregate, cost more lives than the virus itself would have claimed. That’s my biggest concern. The problem with the whole notion of collapsing the healthcare system (at least in the industrialized nations) is that it relies on some pretty grim conditions that each have to be met in order. I can see it is possible, but still rather improbable. The hospitalization rate would have to be staggeringly high in a number of key areas all at once for it to be as dire as the dimwits in the (American) media seem to want it to be. The real issue—and this has exposed it more than anything ever could have—is how little trust we have (in America at least) in our institutions. They are all corrupt, venal, and not to be trusted. I’m not sure I would have said that 25 years ago.
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Yes, it does appear as if we’re currently not in the greatest place politically…
As to the healthcare system, we have fewer than 100,000 ICU beds in America, for those who will require intensive care (say if 100 million are infected, 8% of cases are severe, requiring intervention and 2% are fatal), the healthcare system will be overwhelmed… With a disease of this severity/level of infectivity, the healthcare systems will be overwhelmed rather quickly if we can’t contain/reduce the rate of spread.
Given the lack of ability to contain this disease, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the number of cases is in the tens of millions 2 months from now, in which case the rate of hospitalisation will be staggeringly high
If doctors start getting infected due to lack of masks/resources, we will have a shortage of doctors too
We are vastly under equipped to deal with this. Perhaps I’m over reacting, only time will tell. If we take greater precautions perhaps we can contain the spread outcome may be less detrimental. Perhaps I’m wrong…
To be freaking out now is a bit of an over reaction (hoarding groceries etc). But say it’s highly likely things will spiral out of control months from now, does that mean we shouldn’t do anything prior to all going awyre? We should reduce the spread NOW to prevent a more deleterious outcome months from now
Similar with AAS users, should we only treat users ten or twenty years in after they’ve had a heart attack/stroke or should we moniter bloods, provide imaging etc to mitigate harm
Primarily due to mass hysteria the economy is fucked… and it will get worse. Businesses that profit from travel, transportation etc will be strained and/or even go under. Following lockdowns/preventative measures being taken many businesses will go under regardless of public hysteria… Economically we aren’t in a great place right now, it’ll take a little while for things to reset. Hence the bullshit conspiracy theory being pushed around that China purposely synthesised this highly contagious viral illness to crash the stock market, take over the world
Its bullshit, though they do have a point about China trying to take over lol
Will it though? We don’t know how prone to mutation this virus is. We’ve already differentiated between two different strains of which are able to infect humans. Say 60 percent of the world becomes infected with a 2% mortality rate, that’s almost one hundred million dead. If a more lethal strain develops, far more could die.
The only way I can see this kind of mortality rate coming to fruition absent of infection would be mass starvation, or people lining up with guns in the streets (which wouldn’t happen here… Actually it might, but I’m somewhat rural. More people own guns, but less people live around here in general)
You can be contagious and asymptomatic for 2 weeks. That’s the biggest problem, you spread it before you know that you’re sick and should avoid people.
Incidentally, Nicaragua has acknowledged it’s first official case as of this evening.
Yup… the economic devistation is the scary part…im self employed landlord…I see the bottom half… the low income people are 1 week from homeless most dont have credit cards ect to float by…I dont think people get it… yea social distance saves virus but pretty soon when the animals come out the cages becuase theyre starving & thirsty… the deathtoll will rise due to crime faster than the virus kill rate. 90 days tops b4 wallmart riots in usa. Not being political but we all got guns here so when it pops off here its gonna be way worse than other places.
As far as juicing goes…no point gyms closed…With that said trt dose, b12 & home gym or do lame crossfit shit in yard or park… I dont think trt dose hurts immune system probably be worse to cut it if you been on it long time.
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Don’t want to get political, but if things get as out of hand as you’re implying, the ensuing deaths from firearm related homicide should be (finally) ammunition enough to impliment greater restrictions pertaining to gun control.
You aren’t the only nation with a lot of guns either. Despite stricter laws, Australia has quite a prevelance of firearm ownership. The firearms may not be as deadly, but when you put them up against people with no guns it can easily get messy. Other candidates are New Zealand, Canada, Norway etc
Furthermore you’ve got gangs, unregistered firearms here. Kids who carry knives, improvised weapons etc. It could get quite messy here. I have a car… I imagine if I get attacked running a menial errand hitting someone in the face with a lug wrench/tire iron ought to buy me enough time to run away
As a matter of fact two kids (delinquents) looking for a fight did start with me at my nearest shopping centre a couple days ago. I simply walked away, but perhaps as things get exponentially worse I won’t have the luxury of walking away
Once again, if half the US gets infected you’ll have about 3 million people dead. I highly doubt 3 million will get shot, stabbed or have their heads beaten in… And if they do it’ll seriously be like the apocalypse
I’ve worried about this, my neighbors have guns… We don’t…
Thankfully to get close enough to shoot me you’d have to run about half a mile from the nearest property
Well the guys who are into calisthenics will do well. You can do surprisingly well with pushup/dip variations. If you have a homegym/power rack you’re in the clear. I’ve got a barbell with about 250lbs in plates, pull-up bar, dip bar, gymnastic rings… A massive amount of land (cardio). I’m pretty safe from a gym point of view.
For squats power clean/front squat, high rep deadlifts, pullups and dips should be adequate
TRT probably won’t fuck up immunse response, but if you’re using enough test to get to 2500ng/dl, ft 3x top of the ref range etc it may blunt immune response.
Not all that important, itd probably be pretty difficult to suppress you’re immune system to elicit the response akin to that of an elderly man. Still, cycling at this time wouldn’t be a good idea.
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They should just make homicide punishable by life in prison or death. That way there would be no more homicides ever again.
You know the second guns become illegal, too expensive or too hard to get then we’ll be at a Gun-nation forum sourcing cheap guns from China or finding out who has the newest 3D printer that can make the sickest futuristic AR-15 that the govt has no fucking clue about. Think of how badass the guns would be with that type of black market opening up and the competition to create the biggest baddest guns to capitalize on that. I don’t know what you really think gun legislation would actually do besides making prices way cheaper. There’s been a war on drugs for a long time yet I could get any type of drug delivered to my house from another country with one click. That’s if I’m too lazy to drive down the street and get it instantly. It’s easier now than any time in history to get drugs and it will only get easier the more connected the world becomes. The best way to not be political is to not be political.
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I was sick often before TRT and since being on (and at higher ranges) I’ve yet to really get sick in 3 years. Is there any situation where TRT could actually help the immune system or is it more likely I’ve just gotten lucky? Curious about that since Covid-19 popped up. There’s a thread trying to figure that out in T-replacement. No one seems to really know the answer.
Just wanted to chime in here and link this article.
These are the possible scenarios, simulated with a small population and a more contagious virus.
I may be miles off here and would appreciate correcting but I’ve read quite a lot about MS and Anabolics because I know someone affected and have tried to help them out. With MS the immune system attacks healthy cells and causes demylenation. So it wastes muscle, ruins the spinal cord etc. Long story short of course.
Anabolics have been tried as a way of slowing down MS, regressing MS and combatting MS fully. Oxandrolone is the one that has come up most in my research for helping those in need.
https://academic.oup.com/brain/article/136/1/132/431168
Now whether this ties in with corona is anyones guess but studies seem to suggest there is a link between an improved immune system and regression of MS
Perhaps you’re correct. Societal dfferentiation is heavily present here. Within a country wherein gun culture has been normalised, engrained within culture making guns illigal would be a hell of a lot harder.
Within Australia we had somewhat of a gun culture (though statistically in 1974 we had stricter regulations to start off with, but it was very easy to purchase certain weapons). Come the Port Arthur shooting restrictions regarding firearm ownership were put into place. Authorities were very strict regarding enforcement of the law and many were prosecuted for illicit ownership. The public argument of a totalitarian police force became a mute point as the government assigned restrictions to where and when an officer of the law could discharge his/her weapon. In the 70s for reference carrying firearms in the back of you’re truck (hunting etc) wasn’t unheard of… You’d never see this today.
As a result, now each and every time an officer takes a shot at a perp a very lengthy process of paperwork, a trial etc ensues. Adjusted for population (and suicide) the USA has a firearm homicide rate at about 6x that of Australia. I imagine this disparity will become much greater. Rates of mental illness are say 2x higher in the US maximum, thus the disparity cannot be made defunct on the basis of mental health.
As to 3-D printing, do you know how much it costs to acquire a 3-d printer capable of manufacturing advanced Chinese weaponry (you need parts to begin with, parts of which are restricted here, you’ll be prosecuted if you attempt to import them). With the economy crashing no one is going to be able to shell out the many thousands of dollars required to purchase a 3D printer sophisticated enough. Perhaps one of those crappy 1-shot firearms that blow up upon discharge. Should also mention if they made ammunition as difficult to acquire as it is here, acquiring the firearm is one story… Getting ammunition is an equally difficult task.
Importing unlicensed firearms domestically and/or internationally also carries very steep penalties.
As to drugs vs guns, that’s a very valid argument and I agree with you. Many conservatives have made the argument “these are law abiding citizens”, sure… But if we changed gun legislature would they still be law abiding citizens? With cannabis, psilocybin, MDMA (or whatever soft drugs you wish to lump in there) users are breaking the law, they’re lawbreakers… But the user doesn’t have the potential to mow down a movie theatre full of people in ten minutes, that guy with the sickest, futuristic AR-15 does have that power in his hands. On the basis of “who is he/she potentially harming” alone there is a very wide discrepancy, hence why gun related offences (here) are treated with instantaneous imprisonment. Drug related offences (possession) here you might get off with a criminal record absent of prison time or a very, very steep fine.
The comparison of drugs vs guns can be made, but in pertaining to drug reform/societal overhaul, legalising soft drugs like psilocybin or cannabis won’t lead to significant rates addiction or societal harm… At the very least nothing like the amount of harm alcohol induces. It might lead to a shortage of Cheetos at you’re local supermarket though.
Heavy handed policing has made sure it’s rather difficult to acquire firearms. Does this mean I couldn’t acquire one if I wanted to? Absolutely not, I can either go through the process required to purchase a gun (wherein probably cause is required, and “collecting” is adequate grounds for a license)… Or I can go through the black market, meet up in person. Would I really want to meet up with some stranger who deals illicit firearms? I could probably acquire a gun within a few hours if I wanted to, there are people here who advertise selling guns online… Still, the kind of guns you’re going to be acquiring are very different from some of the weapons I’ve shot when I lived in the US. Probably an old, beaten up .22 single shot pistol or something along those lines.
In certain states in Aus you can easily get 20+ years for drug distribution… Trust me… We have no shortage of dealers here.
It’s a complex issue and I don’t agree with what Australia has done… I do agree on restrictions imposed pertaining to what firearm you’re purchasing (why does he average Joe need an assault rifle?), Background checks and mandating a gun safe be owned (bullets and weapons be kept separately)… As to background checks, non violent offences with soft drugs should be exempt from terminating an application. I don’t believe in the “cooling off” period our government has. As to public concealed carry permits, I believe someone ought to
- have extensive experience with firearms (law enforcement, civilian who has significant training with firearms)
- have a valid reason for requiring such a permit
I don’t believe in probable cause either. If you wish to own a gun, you’re a citizen deemed not a threat to society I see no problem with said person owning a gun, so long as they keep it away from reach of children.
It’s dose dependent, modest dosages of testosterone appears to elicit a neuroprotective effect. When you’re talking about using 10-100x a physiologic dose this is a very different story. 20mg oxandrolone vs the 100mg oxandrolone many use… 100-200mg testosterone vs 500-1500mg etc. If I recall correctly that case report with oxandrolone implimented 10-20mg daily, 50-100mg daily might’ve induced a different outcome.
You’ve also got different types of immune response. Different mechanisms at play etc. Given the literature regarding AAS and immunosuppression is rather sparse, it’s very possible one aspect of immune response is suppressed/enhanced whilst another is kept in check etc. We need more data, we don’t even have a distinctly known, definitive mechanism as to why AAS mediates immunosuppression exists.
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thanks for the explanation my man
I’m willing to bet the number of people infected is already in the millions. This has been going on since mid December. I suspect that the majority of those who get infected are either asymptomatic or require very little in the way of medical attention. I think we’re going to find out that this has been with us for some time and that the hospitalization rate is well below the projections. Instead of wiping out global wealth from hundreds of millions of middle class people they could have approached this differently. But then again maybe I’m wrong. It’s happened a few times before.