[quote]challer1 wrote:
[quote]Cortes wrote:
[quote]DrSkeptix wrote:
–In her article she does not mention at all the possibility of surveillance. With MRI mammography, the cumulative 5 year risk for a woman her age with a BRCA1 mutation is more like 12% (not the previously surmised 20% risk). No excess mortalities are seen with such surveillance and appropriate treatment.
[/quote]
This is what I’ve been wondering about.
Instead of taking such drastic measures, wouldn’t it be more prudent to simply monitor what’s happening with frequent checkups?
Maybe I’m missing some important information. [/quote]
Yeah, you are. 5 year survival rates vs lifetime survival rates. Early detection survival rates are seriously inflated because the fact that it was detected early starts the timer ticking earlier.
Imagine two alternative scenarios involving the same person with the same cancer. We’ll call this scenario “1” and scenario “2”.
In scenario “1”, a 40 yr old person’s cancer was detected in an early stage. If this person lived 6 years and then died of their cancer at age 46, they would be considered a survival in 5 year survivor rates.
In scenario “2”, the same person’s cancer was detected 5 years later than in scenario 1. They died a year later at age 46. This person would not be considered a survival in 5 year survivor rates.
Same person, same death date, but in the early detection scenario they survive and in the late detection scenario they do not.
In this specific scenario, I think Jolie is making the right decision. Her mother died of breast cancer at 56 as she already stated and living with that level of anxiety associated with developing and dying of cancer is not something anyone wants to live with. Cancer is a horrible thing. If I was a woman and even had a 25% lifetime risk of getting breast cancer, I’d consider the procedure, especially at that age.[/quote]
You are correct, but answering a different question.
I was referring to the risks of discovery and diagnosis, not to survival rates.
What you are referring to is also called “stage shift” in some contexts, or survival shift, but it is not the measure used in discussing the risks of development of BRCA-determined breast cancer.
Different statistical inferences entirely.