[quote]Silyak wrote:
[quote]polo77j wrote:
[quote]Silyak wrote:
[quote]polo77j wrote:
Never said causation … and your logic is backwards … it’s a NEGATIVE correlation i.e. an increase in one is observed with a decrease in the other, specifically after Roe v Wade and the introduction to widely available, medically safe(er) abortions there was a stat. sig. decrease in crime rates - the author (Steven Levit I believe) recognizes other factors, but attempts to explain it as young, lower income women now had access to safer options (i.e. abortion clinics) which they then could exercise that option when an unwanted/unplanned pregnancy occurred.
Higher numbers of this group may have exercised this option, giving them more freedom to improve their human capital and financial situation allowing them, when they did decide to start a family, to be a better situation financially and socially to raise the child with more opportunities available than if they had a child younger and with less favorable economic options or conditions. Thus, less struggle, more time to focus on rearing the child, etc… (this is a quick and dirty cliff’s notes and I’m sure I’m leaving out some things - the link is there if you want to read it … the Wiki page has links to other resources and readings if you’re really interested)
This actually reminds me of a study I read regarding access to day care for young mothers. I forget the name of the study, but it yielded similar results IIRC - the study focused on a specific socio-economic group much like the one I described above - low income, single young mothers who opted to not have abortions. There were two or three types of day cares set up in these areas - one a regular day care with little to no educational focus outside of conventional age group education, the other focused on early exposure to education (alphabets, colors, shapes, etc…). IIRC, the latter had extended hours, I think the kids were there for something like 8 to 10 hrs or something like that while the former had normal (for the time, this was in the 70s and 80s I believe) hours, 6 hrs max I believe.
They measured success by high school graduation rates of the two groups, but they also controlled for the economic success of the mothers … I believe the mother’s of the latter group ended up making more money of the time span than the former group (stat. sig.) while the graduation rates among the kids was stat. insig.[/quote]
Negative correlation plus a super duper explanation to explain the correlation still doesn’t equal causation. I can think of dozens of things that have changed since 1973 and if pressed could provide an explanation as to why most of them might cause a decrease in crime. [/quote]
…and that’s the point of the discussion. There ARE multiple variables affecting, or correlated with, crime rate. No one here has said, “hey guys, we solved how to lower the crime rate - MORE ABORTIONS!! Yay!!! no more fuckin’ crime!!!”
It’s an interesting correlation and interesting theory regarding the relationship - I don’t think anyone here is under the assumption that there’s causation here.
In case you glazed over the rest of my post, i also mention a study conducted during the same time period amongst a similar socio-economic group that could also be negatively correlated with decreasing crime rate that doesn’t involve aborted babies. Some of the factors are present though, like young, low-income mothers having time to improve themselves financially and economically (i.e. human capital) to provide a more comfortable life for their children and access to more opportunities.
So, in closing, we get it, you understand that correlation<>causation - so does most people here. Here’s a pat on the head.
Now, if you really want to discuss crime rate, how ‘bout you come up with some of those variables you briefly mentioned which are sittin’ on the top of that head of yours.[/quote]
No, I don’t want to discuss crime statistics (but I find it hard to believe you can’t think of anything that’s changed since 1973 other than abortion). You brought up a random spurious correlation and I don’t think it rises to the level of deserving discussion. [/quote]
It has been a while since I read Freakonomics, but I recall that abortion was legalized earlier in some states than others, and it follows that crime was significantly reduced 16 to 17 years after legalization in each location. Makes sense considering that 2 babies are aborted for every 10 live births, and those two babies would have most likely been born to single poor women.