I have great faith in mueller to follow the facts but I have no confidence that we will ever see the “real” report. Just some watered down version that will not satisfy either side.
Common to poll well right after an announcement and with how well he’s known but I’m impressed by Biden’s numbers right now. Pretty decent leads over Bernie in most of the ones I’ve seen.
Of course it’s early and a lot can happen. It may not be a long drawn out race like we would expect if he maintains and does well early. We shall see.
I also don’t think it would be effective to cast Biden as Obama 2.0. While this may rile up the right I don’t think the strategy makes much sense considering his popularity.
Here in lies the problem for Biden (as I see it):
He will “trip up” and stick his foot in his mouth along the way…all things that will hurt him…
Trump can be caught naked slashing puppies on the White House Lawn with little or no effect on his numbers.
How do you run against that?
Like you said…we’ll see…
We’ve discussed this and we agree on some parts but perhaps not on all. While Trump’s floor isn’t likely to go much where his ceiling is remains to be seen. The diehards aren’t going anywhere away from him but we should keep in mind that the amount of diehards doesn’t seem to be high enough on its own to win a general election.
So while keeping in mind that Trump may not lose a lot of current support it is worth looking about how much support he can gain. If the economy stays hot and the GOP can cast serious doubt about the Dem candidate then of course he has a good shot.
But how many people right now won’t vote for Trump no matter what happens? Again the idea that he can’t bump 45 approval rating which historically is not high by any means is telling. With so many things going well with the economy and nothing major like the Iraq War to bog him down I would be alarmed by that if I’m a Trump advisor. Biden will definitely shoot himself in the foot he has a history of that. But has anyone shot their own feet more than Trump and as consistently? And has it already done irreparable damage to him outside those diehards?
The Democratic candidate will nationally be significantly more popular than Hilary was. I mean I suppose I could be wrong but I don’t see how.
I also can’t see Biden if it’s him doing as poorly as she did with men. And I’m not trying to say he’s a flawless candidate because he is far from it.
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Trump fears Biden the most because he can win the 4 crucial states that he badly needs for re-election. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio. If Biden wins 2 of the 4 it’s over.
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Agreed. One factor is the unions - they don’t have the clout they once had, but as they start lining up behind Biden, there’s going to be a stronger story to tell that Trump is no friend of the blue collar class. Everyone probably saw how upset Trump was when the firefighter’s union came out for Biden (and he isn’t even the nominee).
Also, Biden makes for a safe(r) vote for disaffected right of center voters. I saw a poll the other day that said something like 30% of identified conservatives wouldn’t vote for Trump in 2020, and something like 1 in 6 Republicans. Biden can make a credible pitch for the votes of these people in ways that a Bernie Sanders can’t.
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…and the “Tweet Barage” the last few days confirms it.
@thunderbolt23 and @H_factor…question…
If I am reading you correctly…(if it turns out to be a Trump/Biden match-up)…things may ride on a narrow portion of the electorate in key states?
And I have a question about the Far Left/Progressive/“Bernie” Wing…do they have enough aversion toward Trump to pull the lever for Biden? (While I don’t have the numbers…many didn’t vote for Hillary…)
Given how unpopular Hilary was even with the left and the idea that the election was “stolen” to an extent from Bernie supporters point of view I would definitely think so.
Yep…
It’s been said ad nauseum…the DEMS ran the very person that Trump could beat…
While she publicly blames her loss on a lot of things…you have to wonder that as she is laying back looking at Bill clip his nails on his Old-Man feet…if she realizes that a lot of the electorate simply didn’t like her.
Yep - that was Trump’s key to a narrow victory: particular slices of key states that involved voters who otherwise lean Democratic. If 2020 is a replay of 2016, those pockets are awful Biden-friendly.
But 2020 has its own baggage to add to the 2016 landscape - and I don’t think it’s good for Trump, and I don’t think his base will be enough to overcome it.
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Something that has been an eye-opener to me…
Biden’s support among the “blue collar” (organized AND individual).
He has an appeal that I wasn’t aware of. I really thought Trump had that sector pretty wrapped up.
(Note: I put “blue collar” in parenthesis to emphasize that they are in fact a diverse group of Voters).
No one so far.
If Sanders isn’t cheated again he will get the nomination and destroy Trump and hid faux populism.
So far Weld.