[quote]ZEB wrote:
[quote]Mufasa wrote:
Again, Zeb…I certainly see these debates as interesting…but I don’t see either candidate delivering a “knock-out” blow.
I think the first Debate is moderated by Jim Leher (…yea, yea…I know that Public Television tends to be part of the “MSLM”…)…but he tends to ask fairly even-handed questions and keeps candidates on track when they evade the question.
I think that both Romney and the President will bolster their positions…and there is bound to be some “moment” that will be talked about the next day…but a clear “winner” or “loser”?
All in the eye of the beholder, I guess.
Mufasa[/quote]
True indeed my friend.
But there are ways that one candidate is seen as having won.
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Humor, a very powerful tool in a Presidential debate and one used well by Ronald Reagan both times he ran for President. He won that first debate with Carter by not looking as “hawkish” as the Carter campaign had painted him. He came off as a jovial senior citizen who seemed sharp and had a good sense of humor. When Reagan said to Carter “there you go again…” intimating that Carter was playing fast and loose with the facts it was a turning point in the debate and the election. After that first debate Reagan gained a huge advantage in the polls.
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Mistakes can play a large role in Presidential debates. Without the liberal media filter Obama is walking a tight rope with no net. He won’t feel the pressure because as a perfect human being he knows in his heart that he never makes mistakes. However, that won’t prevent him from possibly making one. If it’s large enough the media (all of them) will be forced to talk about it. Romney, on the other hand is hunted daily by the media who are looking for “gotchya” moments. He is used to the fire. That doesn’t mean that he’s immune to errors obviously we know better. But he’s at least been tried by fire. When has Obama ever been up against it? He was thrown soft balls when he debated Hillary (so much so that SNL made fun of the debates in 08) He also had an easy time with John McCain, but he was coming off three hard fought debates with Hillary and was far more ready to go one on one than he is today.
But errors can certainly turn the tide of any Presidential debate. One example,
in his 1976 debate with then challenger Jimmy Carter had President Ford not said
“there is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe” he may very well have won reelection. But that error was front page news the next day and cost him reelection in a very tight race.
Other than a well timed clever line or a major gaffe on the part of either candidate, the debates help the challenger more than the incumbent. As Romney gets to stand next to the President and prove to the world (by not making the big gaffe) that he is every bit as qualified as Obama. Until that very moment he is the guy outside looking in. When they both take the stage and stand next to each other the challenger is then seen as quite viable by some who had doubts. Generally, in earlier days sitting Presidents rarely accepted a challenge to debate from their opponents for this very reason. However, with the Kennedy/Nixon debate Presidential debates became a well accepted tradition. Prior to that point it was hit or miss whether the two candidates for the highest office in the land would debate.
So, by virtue of the debate taking place and no major gaffes on Romney’s part I would bet that his numbers rise slightly in the polls. If he has an exceptional evening it can turn the tide of the election for him in a big way. Granted there are two more debates that follow but that first debate is watched by more people and far more highly anticipated. Hence, it has more power in the Presidential race in my view.
Jim Lehrer who is a liberal is scheduled to moderate the first debate. But out of the three moderators he is the most fair. The first half of the debate will focus on the economy. If Romney does not hit it out of the park in the first 45 minutes then it will be Obama’s evening as this is a horrible economy and I don’t think that blaming Bush will play well in a debate format. The second half will focus on health care. This should be another good topic for Romney as about 60% of Americans are against national health care. The other two debates are moderated by CNN’s Candy Crowley a lefty and CBS’ Bob Schieffer another lefty. And unlike Jim Lehrer who usually keeps his politics to himself Crowley will be drooling at a chance to hit Romney with as many times as possible. Schieffer is a more seasoned newsman but nonetheless pulls for Obama.
So, this first debate is Romney’s best chance to stand up and show the American public that he is ready to lead!
[/quote]
Amazing summary and historical perspective, Zeb!
Thanks!
By all reports, Romney is practicing…and practicing HARD for these debates. He and his campaign also must view them as very important.
His focus on the debates has got him in a little trouble with some Conservatives (especially larger donors). They want to see him out more on the stump, especially in Battleground states.
While he is traveling more; it is clear that he is now focused more on the debates that can truly “define” him to a much larger electorate.
Mufasa
