Makkun wrote:
“Yeah, but couldn’t they just have kept up the sanctions? The report clearly states that Saddam had no WMD, only the vision (not even proper plans) to get his programmes started again, when/if the sanctions were gone. That completely rules the WMD argument for the war out.”
I think you know (and I have pointed out) that the sanctions appear to have been effective up to the middle of the 90’s.
Here from Duefler:
“Iraq?s CW program was crippled by the Gulf war and the legitimate chemical industry, which suffered under sanctions, only began to recover in the mid-1990s. Subsequent changes in the management of key military and civilian organizations, followed by an influx of funding and resources, provided Iraq with the ability to reinvigorate its industrial base.”
Further:
“The way Iraq organized its chemical industry after the mid-1990s allowed it to conserve the knowledge-base needed to restart a CW program, conduct a modest amount of dual-use research, and partially recover from the decline of its production capability caused by the effects of the Gulf war and UN-sponsored destruction and sanctions. Iraq implemented a rigorous and formalized system of nationwide research and production of chemicals,”
More? Of course:
“Iraq?s chemical industry surged in the late 1990s, when more financial resources became available to the Regime. Although Iraq still lagged behind its pre?Gulf war capabilities, it was able to divert a portion of its revenue to purchase new plants and renovate existing ones to renew its basic chemical industry.”
“Yes, but according to the report, it didn’t happen. So it makes the WMD reason to go to war a clear mistake.”
It does no such thing.
From Duefler:
“ISG judges, based on available chemicals, infrastructure, and scientist debriefings, that Iraq at OIF probably had a capability to produce large quantities of sulfur mustard within three to six months.”
Further:
“In addition to new investment in its industry, Iraq was able to monitor the location and use of all existing dual-use process equipment. This provided Iraq the ability to rapidly reallocate key equipment for proscribed activities, if required by the Regime.”
“Yes, but due to the Duelfer report he neither had the means nor concrete plans to do that. If I, for once, accept the historic Hitler comparison, it makes him a wannabe mini-Hitler at best, wanting to raise another dangerous army despite the fact that he just couldn’t do it. All other possible reasons aside - the WMD one is definitely out after the Duelfer report.”
Forgive me if I’m piling on (you know that I love you!!!)
From Duefler:
"we have clear evidence of his intent to resume WMD production as soon as sanctions were lifted. All sources suggest that Saddam encouraged compartmentalization and would have discussed something as sensitive as WMD with as few people as possible.
Huwaysh claimed that in 1999 Saddam asked how long it would take to build a production line for CW agents. Huwaysh tasked four officials to investigate, and they responded that experts could readily prepare a production line for mustard within six months. VX and Sarin production were more complicated and would take longer. Huwaysh relayed this answer to Saddam, who never requested follow-up information. An Iraqi CW expert separately estimated Iraq would require only a few days to start producing mustard?if it were prepared to sacrifice the production equipment."
I know that some people aren’t as responsible as Makkun. They read the beginning and end of my posts.
Let me summarize:
Duefler clearly states that the intent to mass produce WMD was always in the cards.
The report states in unambigious terms, that Saddam was in material breach of UN resolutions on multiple levels.
The lack of effectiveness of sanctions and the joke that was OFF allowed him to pour money back into weapons.
As you can see, Saddam retained his expertise, had started reconstituting his WMD base (plants/scientists/importing weapon systems etc…)
My Anti-George Bush friends are entitled to their opinions.
However, it seems very obvious that this guy was a “clear and gathering threat to the region.”
Saddam’s past actions (I found an entire page detailing use of chemical agents) and his circumventing of UN resolutions make it quite clear that blood and terror were in the cards for the future.
W., Blair, Howard and others made the right call.
JeffR