[quote]pushharder wrote:
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
Something like 15% of their oil and gas exports go though Ukraine pipelines.
[/quote]
Much higher than that.[/quote]
Probably. Read it in yesterday’s journal, and am not about to go down and double check, lol.
A good amount run through the Ukraine for sure…
Obama
“The proposed referendum on the future of Crimea would violate the Ukrainian constitution and violate international law,” he said in remarks in the White House. “Any discussion about the future of Ukraine must include the legitimate government of Ukraine. In 2014 we are well beyond the days when borders can be redrawn over the heads of democratic leaders.”
Yep a referendum for the citizens to vote is certainly something “democratic” leaders should be against.
[quote]Aragorn wrote:
Does Russia hold a treaty with any of the aforementioned states that specifically allow them to have up to 25,000 troops in the country’s borders? If not, and they don’t to my knowledge, then this is a rather major difference between the states you’ve mentioned and the Ukraine.[/quote]
There is also no threat of civil war, or any kind of threat of mass violence in those countries so there is no legitimate reason for Russia to intervene in any way in those countries. There is here. Anybody who does not see the very, very real threat of civil war in Ukraine and the very, very real effect that will have on the safety everybody living in Ukraine is not only being incredibly naive and willfully dense, but they do not understand the situation in Ukraine at all. Some have chosen to do all they can, including utilizing very large leaps in logic, to interpret Russia’s actions as signaling our desire to become the new Nazi Germany, but that is just plain ignoring recent history. That is okay though, everybody is certainly entitled to their opinion.
Allow me to elaborate: Ukraine has existed as an independent, self-governing state for just a little over two decades. The last time that Ukraine was independent before that was approximately 6-700 years before that. It is also a very important place to just about every modern day Slav since the the first great Slavic society, the Kievan Rus, was located primarily in what is now Ukraine. Now, there are two main political factions in Ukraine right now. The first is the pro-West faction located primarily in Western Ukraine, where they mostly speak Ukrainian and the major religion in Catholicism. The second are the pro-Russian people who are mostly situated in the East where the main language is Russian and the main religion is Eastern Orthodox. Neither really has a majority overall in Ukraine and each have been in power several times in the last couple of decades.
Each time one or the other faction comes into power, it is the same story: they show no regard for the other half of Ukraine that wants something different then they do and go all out trying to impose their agenda on the other side. There is no sense of compromise and neither side cares about or respects the position or desires of the other. This is basically where politics in America is headed right now if both parties cannot control their extreme elements. Imagine how things would be if every Republican was a hardcore tea party whack job like Ted Cruz or Michele Bachman and every Democrat was a far left whack job like Nancy Pelosi or Obama.
Now, you have two factions that are diametrically opposed ideologically, neither with much of a majority of the general population at any given time (much like the Republicans and Democrats in America) trying to impose their views and desires on the other approximately half of the population with no respect or care for what the other side wants and no mind towards compromise for the sake of unity. This means that each time that one side comes to power the other is extremely dissatisfied and neither is willing to compromise with the other, so it just stays that way.
Now, with the success of EuroMaiden the precedent has been set that when one side is dissatisfied enough with the other, they can just overthrow the government and put people from their own side in power. Don’t get me wrong, Yanuokovych was a crook, a criminal, and was well on his way towards destroying the democracy in Ukraine and becoming a dictator. He needed to be overthrown and sooner, rather than later. The problem is that the pro-Westerners that overthrew him are now rabidly pursuing their agenda and completely ignoring the other side, which is a huge problem.
The problem is that the insurrection that toppled the old government, while necessary, was indeed illegal and thus the new government they have set up is indeed illegitimate and the various states within Ukraine have every right to not recognize the new government and to split off and form their own. If the new government had reached out to the pro-Russian half of Ukraine after seizing power, then there would have been a good chance at overcoming the issues that Ukraine is now facing and producing a stable, legitimate government that could have worked towards solving many of Ukraine’s issues. As it stands, Ukraine is poised to split into two or more different countries and a civil war is looking more and more likely.
Now, in case anybody hasn’t heard the Crimean Parliament has voted to secede from Ukraine and to rejoin Russia (more on that in a little bit). The issue will be put to a referendum on the 16th Detractors have called the Crimean Parliament illegitimate and they are right. Unfortunately, however, it holds the exact same amount of legitimacy as the government in Kiev does, which is to say none. The referendum is a brilliant move, however. After all, if a majority of the people in Crimea want their independence then who is anybody to stop them? EuroMaiden has backed themselves into a corner into this one because they themselves have supported various secession movements themselves, and if theirs had succeeded then they would have expected Kiev to recognize them.
Now, as to the rejoining Russia part, I do not think that is a good idea right now. I think that, if they wish, they should set up their own independent government, which Kiev and the West will have a hard time not recognizing, and if after everything has settled they still want to be a part of the Russian Federation, the issue can be revisited later.
[quote]pushharder wrote:
I find myself tending toward agreeing, initially at least, with the sentiment that it’s none of the U.S.’ business to intervene as several here have suggested.
If this were the U.S. and Mexico, for instance, what business of the Russians would it be if we crossed the Rio Grande to restore some order in the event of a Mexican coup?
On the other hand, it is a bit 1930’s-esque what’s happening on the Black Sea. We’ve got a Russian dual citizen on this thread trumpeting away about all these “good reasons” for the military maneuvers. Likewise, in 1938 we had German American citizens in this country jumping for joy when the Sudetenland and Austria were gathered into the fold.
I dunno.[/quote]
The problem I have is the similarity to Germany in the '30’s. Maybe there is no comparison to be made, but it looks similar. It’s definitely not something you want to start a war over, especially with Russia and it’s not like any posturing we do will make a damn bit of difference.
There is the other problem, and this may be a media creation, I don’t know, but it seems a fair amount of Ukrainians want Russia to be there. That complicates matters a bit.
Basically, if Putin wants the Ukraine, he will get it. The only way Russia won’t be there is if ultimately Putin does not want it.
[quote]pat wrote:
The problem I have is the similarity to Germany in the '30’s. Maybe there is no comparison to be made, but it looks similar. [/quote]
Just because a situation looks similar, doesn’t mean that it’s actually similar.
The fact remains that Ukraine did not exist as an independent state for much of history. And it is culturally tied to Russia. I really do not want to continue repeating the Kievan Rus, but it’s important, and probably the fundamental reason why you cannot compare this to Germany and Austria. While the two countries may speak the same language, they are culturally distinct.
It would be as if the U.K. claimed dominion over the U.S. merely on the basis that they both speak the same language. It doesn’t work that way.
In other words, Russia actually has a historical precedent to make a claim on the territories in Ukraine. That Ukraine is currently independent doesn’t actually invalidate this.
[quote]magick wrote:
Russia is virtually a landlocked state if it loses access to the Black Sea.
[/quote]
I agree with everything that you said exempt this, it is nowhere close to being accurate. The ports (not to mention the Fleet elements) at Kaliningrad, Saint Petersburg, and Vladivostok are much larger and provide access to the major bodies of water. The major importance of our Crimean base is that it provides a much easier access to the Mediterranean Sea that our other ports do not.
Thank you for the correction.
I just assumed that
Transporting goods across the entirety of Russia to the Pacific wasn’t considered cost-effective, for much the same reason why transporting goods across the entire U.S. isn’t necessarily considered cost effective as well.
That the ports in the Baltic region isn’t available all year long.
[quote]magick wrote:
Thank you for the correction.
I just assumed that
This is correct, and going from one of our other ports in the North would also mean going all the way around Northern Europe and through the Straights of Gibraltar to easily access the Mediterranean (at least in the winter) which is why we are so adamant about keeping and protecting our port in the Crimea.
[quote]
2) That the ports in the Baltic region isn’t available all year long.[/quote]
Most aren’t, but the three that I mentioned are available for most, if not all of the year.
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
[quote]Aragorn wrote:
So, Russia. About the Ukraine thing yeah?[/quote]
Something like 15% of their oil and gas exports go though Ukraine pipelines.
Putin isn’t going anywhere until he knows those are safe. Europe isn’t going to push all that hard on sanctions because they need the oil & gas, and we will likely just use this to trash each politically.
As long as no shots are fired, and no mass graves dug, we’re okay. This is about $ first, everything else a distant second. [/quote]
Ditto, although their share of the Russia’s oil pipeline is astronomically higher than that IIRC. This alone would probably prompt Putin to make sure his $$ is good lol.
BTW Dr. Matt, excellent write-up on the situation in the Ukraine!
I tend to agree with you, but there’s no doubt in my head that Putin also wants to shore up his political sway there in some fashion in addition to your mentioned purposes, whether behind the scenes or not. Then again this doesn’t surprise me because any state would do the same thing except maybe not as shrewdly or with as strong a hand has he holds.
The existence of thermonuclear weapons alone makes the 30’s Germany parallel essentially useless. This on top of the other million things that make the situations incomparable.
[quote]smh_23 wrote:
The existence of thermonuclear weapons alone makes the 30’s Germany parallel essentially useless. This on top of the other million things that make the situations incomparable.
[/quote]
Agree
[quote]Aragorn wrote:
[quote]smh_23 wrote:
The existence of thermonuclear weapons alone makes the 30’s Germany parallel essentially useless. This on top of the other million things that make the situations incomparable.
[/quote]
Agree[/quote]
The greatest peacekeeper there has ever been and the only reason we haven’t had world war 3… at least yet. Just wait until the technology and industry become easily available for any yahoo rogue state run by a psychotic. But that’s another potential thread.
[quote]Fletch1986 wrote:
[quote]Aragorn wrote:
[quote]smh_23 wrote:
The existence of thermonuclear weapons alone makes the 30’s Germany parallel essentially useless. This on top of the other million things that make the situations incomparable.
[/quote]
Agree[/quote]
The greatest peacekeeper there has ever been and the only reason we haven’t had world war 3… at least yet. Just wait until the technology and industry become easily available for any yahoo rogue state run by a psychotic. But that’s another potential thread. [/quote]
By then, hopefully we will have the technology to ship all of the peaceable and sane people to some far-off paradise of a planet where it rains honey and the atmosphere is primarily composed of a female aphrodisiac.
Then the Putins and Bushes can jam missiles up people’s asses back here on Earth all they want.
[quote]pushharder wrote:
[quote]Aragorn wrote:
[quote]smh_23 wrote:
The existence of thermonuclear weapons alone makes the 30’s Germany parallel essentially useless. This on top of the other million things that make the situations incomparable.
[/quote]
Agree[/quote]
Disagree.[/quote]
Ukraine is wishing they hadn’t voluntarily relinquished their nuclear weapons upon the dissolution of the USSR right now. The Russian Federation is quite familiar with strategic deterrence.