Warmest in 400 Years

[quote]ZEB wrote:
hspder wrote:

Unfortunately we live in a society where fear is considered one of the most legitimate tools and is definitely the most commonly used behavior conditioning tool by the right.

Well, at least we can agree on that point. Remember when the republicans tried to scare all the old people and claim that Bush was going to lower their SS benefits?

And remember also during the last election when certain republicans were trying to use scare tactics by saying that if Bush were reelected that there was going to be a draft?

And…Oh wait hold on!

That was the democrats using fear tactics…never mind.[/quote]

I’m not talking about using the well-known marketing technique of FUD. As I made plenty clear, that is perfectly normal. When in Rome, be Roman.

The right, however, takes it up a notch by believing in fear as a legitimate CONDITIONING tool, e.g., by advocating the death penalty and at-will employment.

What part of “behavior conditioning” do you not understand? Do I need to start quoting passages from Psych 1A books?

[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
BostonBarrister wrote:
Here’s a nice blog post from an assistant professor physics at Harvard [edit for correction of institution] (I didn’t take the time to look him up, just looked at his blog) on the report and the press conference:

http://motls.blogspot.com/2006/06/nas-schizofrenic-climate-report.html

Some good links too - including one to the audio of the press conference, and one to buy the whole report.

This is the description of the press conference:

“They analyze who is responsible why they oversold the certainty etc.”

Must read for all!

It appears this report DOWNGRADES the likelihood of human influenced global warming.[/quote]

So you’d rather take the word of some theoretical physicist that specializes in String Theory (of all things) and who does not only not know how to spell “schizophrenic” properly, he actually doesn’t understand what schizophrenia is but still uses it in his title?

Despite its etymology, schizophrenia is not synonymous with dissociative identity disorder, also known as multiple personality disorder or “split personality”; in popular culture the two are often confused. But anyone that actually spent any time reading a psych book knows that is indeed a misconception – and they are completely different conditions.

This guy is clearly too comfortable talking about stuff he has no idea about. Why take his word for anything?

[quote]hspder wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
BostonBarrister wrote:
Here’s a nice blog post from an assistant professor physics at Harvard [edit for correction of institution] (I didn’t take the time to look him up, just looked at his blog) on the report and the press conference:

http://motls.blogspot.com/2006/06/nas-schizofrenic-climate-report.html

Some good links too - including one to the audio of the press conference, and one to buy the whole report.

This is the description of the press conference:

“They analyze who is responsible why they oversold the certainty etc.”

Must read for all!

It appears this report DOWNGRADES the likelihood of human influenced global warming.

So you’d rather take the word of some theoretical physicist that specializes in String Theory (of all things) and who does not only not know how to spell “schizophrenic” properly, he actually doesn’t understand what schizophrenia is but still uses it in his title?

Despite its etymology, schizophrenia is not synonymous with dissociative identity disorder, also known as multiple personality disorder or “split personality”; in popular culture the two are often confused. But anyone that actually spent any time reading a psych book knows that is indeed a misconception – and they are completely different conditions.

This guy is clearly too comfortable talking about stuff he has no idea about. Why take his word for anything?
[/quote]

You mean over the word of some journalist? Yes, I think I would, Professor.

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
As to your alarmists things about what “will” happen with a linearly increasing temperature based on ridiculous assumptions, I’m glad you prefaced them with the visual of you being “arsed”.[/quote]

Are you a lawyer or something, you aren’t very good at the concept of ‘funny’.

Oh, did you read to the end?

Why should I care? It’s not like it’s toxic waste or anything. Bring it on, Canada will be a big winner if it actually happens.

[quote]
BostonBarrister wrote:
As to your alarmists things about what “will” happen with a linearly increasing temperature based on ridiculous assumptions, I’m glad you prefaced them with the visual of you being “arsed”.

vroom wrote:

Are you a lawyer or something, you aren’t very good at the concept of ‘funny’.

Oh, did you read to the end?

Why should I care? It’s not like it’s toxic waste or anything. Bring it on, Canada will be a big winner if it actually happens.[/quote]

You really can’t blame me that you’re so confused by the whole thing that you change your mind mid-post…

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
You really can’t blame me that you’re so confused by the whole thing that you change your mind mid-post…[/quote]

Welcome to vroom’s thinking tree.

[quote]rainjack wrote:
BostonBarrister wrote:
You really can’t blame me that you’re so confused by the whole thing that you change your mind mid-post…

Welcome to vroom’s thinking tree. [/quote]

LOL. The two of you are full of shit.

My stance isn’t what you like to pretend it is. I believe it is a possibility that we must take very seriously due to the long term severity of the outcomes if we fuck up.

Over and over again I’ve suggested a risk analysis approach to this.

Dismissing it because of politics is just as stupid as being deathly afraid because of politics. Guess which side of the debate you two fall on?

P.S. HT… you are starting to make the consequences sound pretty servere for Canada too, maybe I’d better rethink my stance!

[quote]vroom wrote:
rainjack wrote:
BostonBarrister wrote:
You really can’t blame me that you’re so confused by the whole thing that you change your mind mid-post…

Welcome to vroom’s thinking tree.

LOL. The two of you are full of shit.

My stance isn’t what you like to pretend it is. [/quote]

Sadly, your stance isn’t even what you think it is.

[quote]

BostonBarrister wrote:
You really can’t blame me that you’re so confused by the whole thing that you change your mind mid-post…

rainjack wrote:

Welcome to vroom’s thinking tree.

vroom wrote:
LOL. The two of you are full of shit.

My stance isn’t what you like to pretend it is. I believe it is a possibility that we must take very seriously due to the long term severity of the outcomes if we fuck up.

Over and over again I’ve suggested a risk analysis approach to this.

Dismissing it because of politics is just as stupid as being deathly afraid because of politics. Guess which side of the debate you two fall on?

P.S. HT… you are starting to make the consequences sound pretty servere for Canada too, maybe I’d better rethink my stance![/quote]

I’m sorry, I didn’t realize there was a debate – in a debate, you’re normally expected to actually respond to points instead of taking a position in a pulpit and pontificating on whatever you think your point is.

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
You mean over the word of some journalist? Yes, I think I would, Professor.[/quote]

Why does it have to be “over”. Make up your OWN mind, based on YOUR analysis.

If you read my initial post carefully I am not defending this particular journalist’s analysis. I can’t and I won’t.

What I’ve always defended is that basic risk management rules dictate that we need to do much more than we are doing now, and that spending money in reducing our emissions drastically is simply smart risk management.

What interested me here is the dissent within the GOP.

The public view – and the view of many moderate conservatives – is clearly shifting towards accepting Global Warming, and accepting that our irresponsible behavior might have something to do with it. If that is the absolute truth or not is irrelevant for me at this point – what is relevant is that the majority of Americans are buying the story, and the nay-sayers are a shrinking minority.

Choices between “Right” and “Wrong” are easy and can be done rationally. It’s the choices between two wrongs that are hard – and that’s what we are facing here.

[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
Condemning billions of people to shortened uncomfortable lives because we eliminate most of our energy in the hopes that four generations later the CO2 in the atmosphere drops and the temperature returns to a mythical “normal” point all because incredibly flawed data and a slanted analysis indicates man made CO2 may be slightly increasing global temps?[/quote]

I’ve already responded to your other part of the post, but I’d like to add something wrt the above.

What you fail to realize is that the quality of life that you, as a white American male, enjoy, is built on the backs of billions of people that do live short, uncomfortable lives.

Pick up any random item that you bought in the past, say, 3 years – from your new polo shirt to your iPod – and if you dig a little you’ll find it was manufactured by some Asian worker that is paid US$50 (yes, fifty-US-dollars) a MONTH and lives in a bunk bed in a space that s/he shares with a couple of dozen of other factory workers, and works 16 hours a day – just so that, at the end of the year, s/he can buy a TV for the 5-people family s/he supports.

Our long comfortable lives not only require that the other 80% of the population has to live short uncomfortable lives, but it also is going to require that our descendants live short uncomfortable lives.

As I said before, I personally care a lot more about the quality of life of my children, and their children, than I do my own. If that is not the same with you, so be it – it’s your prerogative, as is not having children at all. In fact, if you right down said that you do not plan on having children at all, I’d respect that – more than if you did have children but didn’t care about what happens to their quality of life. Hey, I don?t expect anyone but me to be responsible for the welfare of my children – however, I expect you to admit that you are jeopardizing their quality of life by supporting the policies (or lack of them) you are supporting.

You do need to realize that is in fact the choice you are making: taking a risky gamble on the welfare of future generations in order to have better quality of life for yourself and your generation.

And do realize that “better” does not necessarily mean “good” – for example, in the past few days the air quality has reached new, previously unseen, depths (i.e., it’s never been this bad) over here in the Bay Area. The air was completely un-breathable today, and the ERs were filled with children and elderly suffocating.

Tomorrow the air quality forecast is again so serious that they elected it a “spare the air” day, which means a lot of public transit will be free (including BART) and the authorities are BEGGING people to take the train – not the car – to work, or stay home. Usually this only happens in mid-August, but this year it has been so bad that they expect to have a record number of “spare the air” days.

Our poor, irresponsible choices in the past – like choosing to build an improved roadway system rather than financing a BART extension down to San Jose – are coming back to bite us.

Why should we keep making the same mistakes? Haven’t we screwed up our air enough?

[quote]vroom wrote:
I believe it is a possibility that we must take very seriously due to the long term severity of the outcomes if we fuck up.

Over and over again I’ve suggested a risk analysis approach to this.

Dismissing it because of politics is just as stupid as being deathly afraid because of politics. [/quote]

Amen!

[quote]hspder wrote:
vroom wrote:
I believe it is a possibility that we must take very seriously due to the long term severity of the outcomes if we fuck up.

Over and over again I’ve suggested a risk analysis approach to this.

Dismissing it because of politics is just as stupid as being deathly afraid because of politics.

Amen!
[/quote]

This is not a political issue. This is a fear mongering issue. Hspder correctly called it when he said a rep. called for the report.

I want proof, not made up data points on a graph genereated from a flawed algorithm that has been proven to create the same output regardless of the input.

If this is as serious a problem as you and the enviro-whackos say, then why does it need to be addressed via political means? Surely if there was real proof your side could make a convincing argument outside the beltway, no?

Holy crap, I almost don’t know where to begin. Let’s see what we have learned so far from this thread.

Democrats don’t use fear tactics.

Right, and rainjack is a tree hugging hippie.

Global warming will turn all of the US farmland into one big worthless dessert.

Good to know, but where does this conclusion come from? How exactly do we know? Any scientist worth is degree would say “I really don’t know what would happen.” Because that is the truth about this matter. The only actual data we could us is from the past when it was warmer, and seriously it was some of the most successful times for our species, and other species also.

Now about that “hockey stick” everyone is talking about:

http://www.junkscience.com/jan05/breaking_the_hockey_stick.html

If you really want to understand this hockey stick data, read the above article.

Did you read it?

No? didn’t think you would.

I heard this on the news, and instantly knew it was bogus. Any statement that the Earth is warmer then it was anytime over the last 1000 or 2000 (as I heard) years is bogus for one simple reason. Greenland is still under ice, and wasn’t before the “Little Ice Age”. It used to be a lush green land (hence it’s name) and that was ruined by ice.

If global warming is actually happening, the Earth will regain a great amount of lush land that was a historically terrible place.

Now is anyone familiar with the Little Ice Age? Anyone? It’s cold temperatures ushered in the dark ages. The beginning of witch burning is attributed to this. (They actually attempted to exercise the proceeding glaciers because they thought it was the work of the devil.)

Is the world temperature rising? I wouldn’t doubt it, but it is not as bad as people try to make it out to be.

Are we responsible for some of the warming? I wouldn’t doubt that also, as we do have and are having an impact on the Earth. But again it is way overblown.

Until Greenland is green again, we have not fully recovered from that little ice age, and I will not be worried.

I know, but what about those cities on the Ocean? Maybe we need dikes like they have in that country with the little kid with those chubby fingers. (We just need to send the dikes from San Francisco.)

Regardless of what you hear, if this is happening, this would be a slow process, and the water will not rise all that much. (Please do not learn environmentalism from the movie Waterworld. That is like learning it from the Erin Brockovich movie.)

Now for your homework. What is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation?

[quote]hspder wrote:
BostonBarrister wrote:
You mean over the word of some journalist? Yes, I think I would, Professor.

Why does it have to be “over”. Make up your OWN mind, based on YOUR analysis.

If you read my initial post carefully I am not defending this particular journalist’s analysis. I can’t and I won’t.

What I’ve always defended is that basic risk management rules dictate that we need to do much more than we are doing now, and that spending money in reducing our emissions drastically is simply smart risk management.

What interested me here is the dissent within the GOP.

The public view – and the view of many moderate conservatives – is clearly shifting towards accepting Global Warming, and accepting that our irresponsible behavior might have something to do with it. If that is the absolute truth or not is irrelevant for me at this point – what is relevant is that the majority of Americans are buying the story, and the nay-sayers are a shrinking minority.

Choices between “Right” and “Wrong” are easy and can be done rationally. It’s the choices between two wrongs that are hard – and that’s what we are facing here.[/quote]

There’s a clear difference between accepting the idea that average temperatures are trending upward and accepting the whole AGW package.

There is definitely a broad consensus that the average temperatures have increased over the past century - and from this, over the past 400 years (from the trough of the "Little Ice Age, so not exactly surprising).

There is not a public-opinion consensus that this is a problem linked to industrial carbon emissions. Thus there is not a consensus that we need to do Kyoto-style CO2 caps and cutbacks.

Even among those who think it is a long-term problem that requires risk-management solutions, there are those who think we should concentrate on being able to respond to the effects - i.e. preparing low-lying cities, or even moving some of them, etc. - rather than on attempting to control C02 emissions.

So, I’m glad you’re not defending the journalist - but I think you’re overstating or misstating the public opinion consensus.

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
I’m sorry, I didn’t realize there was a debate – in a debate, you’re normally expected to actually respond to points instead of taking a position in a pulpit and pontificating on whatever you think your point is.[/quote]

Boston, the last thing you and I are ever going to have is a debate. You quote bloggers as sources for your viewpoint, that’s laughable.

You then request science, but you won’t actually listen to scientists themselves, so why the fuck should I invest the time to try to emulate one, I still won’t be one and you still won’t listen to me.

Howabout you stop playing the petty political games and allow that you too don’t actually know what effect we are or aren’t having on the environment.

My stance is one of risk analysis. Rainjack may not believe this, because he chooses to see potential risks as political fear mongering.

What’s really silly is that your camp likes to deride people that worry about environmental concerns, but that same derision is completely applicable to yourselves… your stance is based on ground that is just as shakey.

That’s the part I find funny!

[quote]
BostonBarrister wrote:
I’m sorry, I didn’t realize there was a debate – in a debate, you’re normally expected to actually respond to points instead of taking a position in a pulpit and pontificating on whatever you think your point is.

vroom wrote:
Boston, the last thing you and I are ever going to have is a debate. You quote bloggers as sources for your viewpoint, that’s laughable.[/quote]

Oh give me a break. The fact that a law professor, or physics professor, or economics professor, or what have you has a web log does not mean you get to deride his or her opinions as those of the great unwashed “bloggers” whom you can just toss aside without actually needing to read or understand the points being made. Talk about trying to ad hominem your way out of talking on point.

[quote]vroom wrote:
You then request science, but you won’t actually listen to scientists themselves, so why the fuck should I invest the time to try to emulate one, I still won’t be one and you still won’t listen to me.[/quote]

I requested that you provide certain types of scientific information - which you cannot do because they aren’t out there, which is the entire problem I wanted to elucidate.

And I do listen to scientists - which is how I understand the problems with the claims that are casually tossed about.

Listening to you is another matter – you need to say something besides moralistic posturing once and awhile to be interesting.

[quote]vroom wrote:
Howabout you stop playing the petty political games and allow that you too don’t actually know what effect we are or aren’t having on the environment.[/quote]

That’s actually the entire point. And neither do you. And neither do the doomsayers. Which is why it’s important – because once you move to the next level you’re talking about large-scale policies that will certainly inflict economic harm. Actually wanting those to be based on some sort of good science shouldn’t be asking too terribly much.

I don’t know for sure that when I step outside that I won’t be hit by a meteor, and that would be personally catastrophic, but that doesn’t mean I need to go out and take protective measures that would have the net effect of significantly lowering my standard of living. Or that if I do feel the need to prepare for something or other, I cannot choose between alternative methods of preparation - i.e. actually getting ready for dealing with the consequences of a global warming, irrespective of the cause, rather than trying to cap CO2 emissions on the chance that all the quackery might indeed be correct.

[quote]vroom wrote:
My stance is one of risk analysis. Rainjack may not believe this, because he chooses to see potential risks as political fear mongering.[/quote]

There are potential risks out there. The biggest one is that we are hit with a giant asteroid that causes monumental damage. I would be willing to bet that the odds of that happening are better than the odds of catastrophic global warming effects. Should we devote 10% of worldwide GDP now to building asteroid defense? Maybe. But that wouldn’t leave a lot left over for silly CO2 caps that we apparently should enter into for risk management on the off chance that CO2 might actually be the cause of the temperature increase we’ve seen over the past few centuries and that climactic models that are not accurate are accurately forecasting the potential damage.

[quote]vroom wrote:
What’s really silly is that your camp likes to deride people that worry about environmental concerns, but that same derision is completely applicable to yourselves… your stance is based on ground that is just as shakey.

That’s the part I find funny![/quote]

The part I find funny is how little you understand of the arguments.

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
The part I find funny is how little you understand of the arguments.
[/quote]

Boston, there are competing theories. Neither one of us is qualified to make the decision as to which is correct.

The arguments pulled out of peoples asses for political effect are the ones that are easy to understand but not necessarily very applicable.

My concern is that the physics, the effects of various gases in the atmospher is known.

I realize that there are peat bogs that may be able to sequester large amounts of carbon from the atmosphere, or that ocean plankton maybe be able to bloom and consume it as well.

However, there is another issue, for that consumption to occur the CO2 must physically present itself at the appropriate locations. It isn’t something that localizes itself for consumption in this way.

Anyway, blogging is a very interesting environent, because people can be posting their “facts” based on politics and not have to worry about having credentials as a media source.

Surely you know this?

A lot of people blog a lot of things on the Internet, and the credibility level is very difficult for most of us to determine, especially if some phsyicist who can use language most of us can’t understand decides to pontificate about things he really doesn’t know about.

Do you want to seriously debate things or do you want to throw questions out that you read on some guys blog?

[quote]vroom wrote:
I cant be arsed to worry about it BB, for these reasons:

  • Global warming will turn all of the US farmland into one big worthless dessert.

  • Global warming will extend the season and scope of Canada’s farmland greatly.

  • Global warming will eventually submerge many huge metropolitan areas on the US and European coasts.

  • Global warming will sink a few Canadian cities, which we’ll easily evacuate.

  • Global warming will strengthen hurricanes so they can bend over the southern states and ravage them mercilessly.

  • Global warming may bring more thunderstorms and possibly a small increase in tornado activity to Canada.

You want global warming? Bring it on buddy! All you are going to do is ease our winters, enhance our farming, and increase our importance in the world… seriously.

I don’t know why I’m trying to point you to the potential disaster staring you in the face. I don’t know why you guys don’t take it more seriously… given it’s really your risk.

Why should I care? It’s not like it’s toxic waste or anything. Bring it on, Canada will be a big winner if it actually happens.[/quote]

This assumes, of course, that we don’t disrupt the thermohaline circulation/North Atlantic Drift. No my friend, when it comes to imagination, everybody is fucked equally.

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
Even among those who think it is a long-term problem that requires risk-management solutions, there are those who think we should concentrate on being able to respond to the effects - i.e. preparing low-lying cities, or even moving some of them, etc. - rather than on attempting to control C02 emissions.[/quote]

Sure. Risk management has many possible strategies. Stephen Hawking suggested just the other day that we simply colonize another planet and forget about this one, since we’re already beyond hope.

This administration, however, has done NOTHING – neither reducing the CO2 emissions nor preparing for the consequences – when Arnold went to GWB asking for Federal money to help fix the levees in Northern California, his answer was that he could only provide funds after the levees broke.