Wall Street Teeters

Off Topic Politics & World Issues
21

[quote]tom63 wrote:
rainjack wrote:
tom63 wrote:
rainjack wrote:
uhh…

You might want to stay a little more up to date.

The market gained back 410 points today. The biggest single day gain in recent memory.

This is a bear market. The markets are erratic as hell because of panic sellers, opportunistic buyers, and the naked shorters.

I forget, but how much did the market lose that one day in 1987? And what was the DJIA at? People make a big deal out of this, but wasn’t the market at app 1/3-1/4 of what it was back then?

It lost almost 25% on Black Monday. It went from 2247 to 1739 - 508 point drop.

So before the crash, it was about 1/5th of what it is today.

And while a 5% or so downturn isn’t good, I get very irritated when it is reported with such horror, as if nothing was ever this bad.

[/quote]

The press is even more irritating on the “meltdown” than they are about Obama. The MSM, NPR-stations, NYT - they’re totally full of shit about what’s really happened; instead, they’re gleefully reporting that we can look forward to a new and more heavy regulatory regime. Idiots.

22

[quote]katzenjammer wrote:
tom63 wrote:
rainjack wrote:
tom63 wrote:
rainjack wrote:
uhh…

You might want to stay a little more up to date.

The market gained back 410 points today. The biggest single day gain in recent memory.

This is a bear market. The markets are erratic as hell because of panic sellers, opportunistic buyers, and the naked shorters.

I forget, but how much did the market lose that one day in 1987? And what was the DJIA at? People make a big deal out of this, but wasn’t the market at app 1/3-1/4 of what it was back then?

It lost almost 25% on Black Monday. It went from 2247 to 1739 - 508 point drop.

So before the crash, it was about 1/5th of what it is today.

And while a 5% or so downturn isn’t good, I get very irritated when it is reported with such horror, as if nothing was ever this bad.

The press is even more irritating on the “meltdown” than they are about Obama. The MSM, NPR-stations, NYT - they’re totally full of shit about what’s really happened; instead, they’re gleefully reporting that we can look forward to a new and more heavy regulatory regime. Idiots. [/quote]

I agree. When the market crashed immediately after 9/11 - it recovered all of it’s post 9/11 losses in only 58 days. ALl you heard about for a couple of weeks was the crash. You never heard a peep about the recovery.

I am sure that if Opie wins in 45 days, you will not hear about any of the losses, only the gains. Kinda like the last few months of Clinton. The market lost over 10%, and you never heard a damn word about it.

23

[quote]rainjack wrote:
on edge wrote:
rainjack wrote:

This week was the perfect time to dive in and take some deals. GE was trading at 22 on Monday, giving it a PE of less than 12. That is it’s lowest price in years. A person would be a fool to pass up a deal like that.

I expect another down turn next week when it is realized that the dipshits in DC aren’t going to do anything with the bailout proposals put to them by the Fed until after the elections.

[quote]

RJ, I got to thinking about your GE purchase on the way home last night. Even though I’m not a stock picker, I gotta tell you I don’t like that purchase at all. GE has gotten so big it trades in lock step with the S&P 500. As I already stated and showed with the graph earlier, the S&P is in a clear downward trend and most likely will continue that trend with GE matching. We may have a nice advance for a couple of months from these over sold conditions but the current course will probably resume in time.

Here’s an example of a buy and hold that I like in these rough conditions. Two of the guys who own the company I work for are always out talking with other hot shots in the area. It was brought to their attention that Sterling Savings Bank (STSA), which is based in our area, was falling rapidly in sympathy with the other financials. They were told this bank hadn’t gotten involved with any of the bad debt and the price slashing wasn’t justified. If you find a stock like this, jump on it.

They bought in, one of them 10,000 bucks at $3.50. The price has gone up to over 15 since. I started watching it at about 6 or 7 bucks. Everytime the financials started falling it’s price held strong. When financials advanced, it went up like crazy. This is a case where the stock was successfully fighting the direction of the market. This is about the only long scenario I like in this market. Unfortunately, I never bought Sterling.

24

Banks scare me. They don’t sell anything. They trade money.

While GE has a significant finance division, they make stuff and sell stuff that people have used for decades, and will continue to use.

I like GE because when the price tanks, the divi-yield goes up. It was floating around 6% earlier in the week. GE will always pay a dividend as long as it is making money. If the market is tanking, as you say it is - how can making a pretty much guaranteed 6% return be a bad thing?

When the market comes back, the price goes up and I make money on the appreciation plus the dividend.

I am not saying it is glamorous, but I concentrate on stocks that are undervalued, and consistently pay a dividend.

I have a stock right now that was yielding 25%, and is about to split 5-1. They have paid a dividend every quarter for the last 7 years.

25

[quote]rainjack wrote:
katzenjammer wrote:
tom63 wrote:
rainjack wrote:
tom63 wrote:
rainjack wrote:
uhh…

You might want to stay a little more up to date.

The market gained back 410 points today. The biggest single day gain in recent memory.

This is a bear market. The markets are erratic as hell because of panic sellers, opportunistic buyers, and the naked shorters.

I forget, but how much did the market lose that one day in 1987? And what was the DJIA at? People make a big deal out of this, but wasn’t the market at app 1/3-1/4 of what it was back then?

It lost almost 25% on Black Monday. It went from 2247 to 1739 - 508 point drop.

So before the crash, it was about 1/5th of what it is today.

And while a 5% or so downturn isn’t good, I get very irritated when it is reported with such horror, as if nothing was ever this bad.

The press is even more irritating on the “meltdown” than they are about Obama. The MSM, NPR-stations, NYT - they’re totally full of shit about what’s really happened; instead, they’re gleefully reporting that we can look forward to a new and more heavy regulatory regime. Idiots.

I agree. When the market crashed immediately after 9/11 - it recovered all of it’s post 9/11 losses in only 58 days. ALl you heard about for a couple of weeks was the crash. You never heard a peep about the recovery.

I am sure that if Opie wins in 45 days, you will not hear about any of the losses, only the gains. Kinda like the last few months of Clinton. The market lost over 10%, and you never heard a damn word about it.
[/quote]

Actually, in his final yr the dow lost nearly 30% and the nasdaq lost 50%. Then we had to tack on all the earnings scandals.

26

[quote]rainjack wrote:
Banks scare me. They don’t sell anything. They trade money.

While GE has a significant finance division, they make stuff and sell stuff that people have used for decades, and will continue to use.

I like GE because when the price tanks, the divi-yield goes up. It was floating around 6% earlier in the week. GE will always pay a dividend as long as it is making money. If the market is tanking, as you say it is - how can making a pretty much guaranteed 6% return be a bad thing?

When the market comes back, the price goes up and I make money on the appreciation plus the dividend.

I am not saying it is glamorous, but I concentrate on stocks that are undervalued, and consistently pay a dividend.

I have a stock right now that was yielding 25%, and is about to split 5-1. They have paid a dividend every quarter for the last 7 years.

[/quote]

Your missing the point. My point wasn’t to invest in that stock. My point was, if you’re going to invest in a stock, in this market, invest in one that is bucking the trend. GE will follow the market trend. 6% ain’t a bad yield but you are likely to have an opportunity to get an 8 or 9 % in a year or so. Assuming they don’t cut the dividend. Plus you won’t have to suffer seeing your share price dwindle.

Here’s a bone; HCN. Decent dividend, bucking the trend, demographics behind it. A bit pricey but that’s to be expected in an asset that’s doing well.

27

[quote]on edge wrote:

Your missing the point. My point wasn’t to invest in that stock. My point was, if you’re going to invest in a stock, in this market, invest in one that is bucking the trend. GE will follow the market trend. 6% ain’t a bad yield but you are likely to have an opportunity to get an 8 or 9 % in a year or so. Assuming they don’t cut the dividend. Plus you won’t have to suffer seeing your share price dwindle.

Here’s a bone; HCN. Decent dividend, bucking the trend, demographics behind it. A bit pricey but that’s to be expected in an asset that’s doing well.[/quote]

I doubt GE will sink that far. It hit an 11 year low last week. I like GE, it’s price is a direct result of financial fears that are unfounded wrt GE’s private label financing division.

I don’t like to chase a stock up, and buying HCN would be doing just that. You get less value with every purchase - not more.

I might be wrong. I guess we’ll know in a couple of years, but if you are right and GE is still falling, that means it is only going to increase in attractiveness, as it is a solid company with a good business model. But you are saying that by going to a yield of 9%, that GE’s price should fall to around $15/share. This won’t happen unless GE starts posting some big losses.

A company rarely cuts divis because of a pull back in stock price. If they are losing money - yes, they might cut the divi.

But why punish the shareholder simply because the market doesn’t like the company?

28

You’re still not getting it. HCN is valued high for a reason. GE has underperforemed the S&P 500 for the last year for a reason.

I’m sketchy on your math, too. I show GE being that low just 5 years ago. Are you adjusting for dividends? I also don’t see how you got a 6% yield. If you bought at the very lowest price last week your at 5.66%, which I admit is close, but I doubt you got it at the very bottom.

Also, do you think the price of GE has fully factored in the upcoming recession that so many are still blind too? What about what other bad news that is no doubt in the pipeline? We’ve seen how the price of GE has held up with each recent market plunge. I doubt it will suddenly start doing better.

29

[quote]on edge wrote:
You’re still not getting it. HCN is valued high for a reason. GE has underperforemed the S&P 500 for the last year for a reason.

I’m sketchy on your math, too. I show GE being that low just 5 years ago. Are you adjusting for dividends? I also don’t see how you got a 6% yield. If you bought at the very lowest price last week your at 5.66%, which I admit is close, but I doubt you got it at the very bottom.

Also, do you think the price of GE has fully factored in the upcoming recession that so many are still blind too? What about what other bad news that is no doubt in the pipeline? We’ve seen how the price of GE has held up with each recent market plunge. I doubt it will suddenly start doing better.[/quote]

I fully understand what you are saying. I just have a different method than you do. Surely you understand that there are other methods/strategies than the one you subscribe to, right?

I do not speculate with my investment money. I do not buy anything for my portfolio with a P/E over 20. HCN may work well for you and your graphs, but it does not have any place in my portfolio when it is carrying a P/E of 35. The highest P/E I own is 17.6.

I also do not buy anything involved in real estate right now. HCN is REIT.

I bought most of my GE AT $23, Which is over 5% by quite a bit, but not quite the 6% I was estimating. If the price goes down, and GE’s earnings hold, I will continue to buy GE. I would much prefer to average down than average up.

If I am investing for the long haul - why not hope and pray the stock continues to fall, if there is no real underlying reason for the stock to go down? As long as GE’s sales/profits stay up, I hope people will continue to pull the price down. It just makes buying it cheaper for me.

If the only reason not to buy a dependable, strong company is what the graph is doing, I am going to buy the company before I buy the graph.

30

Ok

31

[quote]rainjack wrote:
I bought most of my GE AT $23, Which is over 5% by quite a bit, but not quite the 6% I was estimating. If the price goes down, and GE’s earnings hold, I will continue to buy GE. I would much prefer to average down than average up.

If I am investing for the long haul - why not hope and pray the stock continues to fall, if there is no real underlying reason for the stock to go down? As long as GE’s sales/profits stay up, I hope people will continue to pull the price down. It just makes buying it cheaper for me.
[/quote]

GE makes a huge part of their “profits” from GE Financial. There’s a reason GE was put on the “do not short” list; it’s more of a financial company than you might think. As the debt problem unwinds, and credit becomes really tight, you might find GE isn’t as good as you thought, even for the next several years.

I’m just saying. It’s no Lehman Brothers, but you never know…

32

[quote]yorik wrote:
rainjack wrote:
I bought most of my GE AT $23, Which is over 5% by quite a bit, but not quite the 6% I was estimating. If the price goes down, and GE’s earnings hold, I will continue to buy GE. I would much prefer to average down than average up.

If I am investing for the long haul - why not hope and pray the stock continues to fall, if there is no real underlying reason for the stock to go down? As long as GE’s sales/profits stay up, I hope people will continue to pull the price down. It just makes buying it cheaper for me.

GE makes a huge part of their “profits” from GE Financial. There’s a reason GE was put on the “do not short” list; it’s more of a financial company than you might think.

As the debt problem unwinds, and credit becomes really tight, you might find GE isn’t as good as you thought, even for the next several years.

I’m just saying. It’s no Lehman Brothers, but you never know…
[/quote]

This will explain it better than I can.

It is investor panic that is causing the price slide. I hope more peoplehold your opinion. I can get GE at fire sale prices. It is not a day trader stock, or even a swing trader stock.

Those that think you need to get in and out of a stock over a 3-5 year period should most definitely stay away from GE. This is a 20 - 30 year stock.

This is not the time to be in the market if you are looking at the market through graphs and Bolinger bands. Short termers will be getting slaughtered over the next 6 months.

This is a wonderful time to buy if you are looking to buy solid companies that have a good business model, great management, and a healthy balance sheet - and are looking to hold them for decades rather than weeks, or months.