As the dollar gains strength and the stock market continues to hold its own I wonder what the doomsday predictors are thinking?
[quote]ZEB wrote:
As the dollar gains strength and the stock market continues to hold its own I wonder what the doomsday predictors are thinking? [/quote]
You mean the stock market that lost 1% today? The stock market is beginning to give, it will fall, people will use their dollars to buy into it. The cycle is the same cycle as it was before.
[quote]ZEB wrote:
[quote]JEATON wrote:
I am not predicting “the end of days.” I do, however, believe that the powers that be are grossly understating the real problems we are facing. [/quote]
I think they are estimating it spot on. Do you think guys like Warren Buffett would be buying into the stock market if we were on the verge of total collapse? I bought in when he did, the market was around 7000 and I’ve made a bundle and also have had a good laugh on the doomsday predictions.
I like Glenn Beck I think he’s entertaining and over all a good conservative voice, but when it comes to the economy who would you rather side with Glenn Beck or Warren Buffett?
[/quote]
I do not know why you are suggesting that I get my economic news from Glenn Beck. I do not watch Beck, or anyone else for that matter.
Also, you, I, nor anyone else for that matter is Warren Buffet. No one else would have got the terms and warrants he got with his GS investment. It was guaranteed money. Also, Buffet is in a situation in which he has to invest a percentage of his money at all times. Warren knew, as I and apparently you did, that the market does not follow a straight line. If you are a student of history, you can name for me the one other time in which we had an approximately 50% fall in the market and a subsequent 50% retracement. Need a hint? Yes,it was the Great Depression. Now for bonus points. Do you remember what happened after the 50% retracement and all of the bull market calls that it brought on?
I am not a chicken little. Again, this is not the end of days. However, I do believe the shit is soon to hit the fan. I have said all along that the key would be reversals in the long trends of gold and the U.S. dollar. We may be seeing this now. We will probably see a short term resumption in both that will reassure the bulls and set them up for a fall. I do doubt that we will see gold above $1230 again for a very long time.
Again, having said all this, if I truly had it all figured out I would be on my island right now and you guys would be the furthest thing from my mind. Until then, I will continue to play internet wise man with you guys.
[quote]ZEB wrote:
As the dollar gains strength and the stock market continues to hold its own I wonder what the doomsday predictors are thinking? [/quote]
I think we should hold off on any rejoicing until we see a couple of solid quarters of job growth (and not in the public sector).
I just started a new government engineering job and there’s tons of engineers who’ve started with me who’ve given up on the private sector for the time being believing (correctly), that no real jobs are being created and most are going overseas with the manufacturing.
I guess if we have another decade like the last, we may yet see manufacturing and engineering return to this country, but only because wages have shrunk so much.
I don’t believe we’re doomed, but I do believe we’re stuck in a Valley of Suck until we can figure out how to stop growing our debt faster than our GDP and until we can figure out how to start growing the private sector (which has been in recession since 1999) again.
[quote]JEATON wrote:
I do not know why you are suggesting that I get my economic news from Glenn Beck. I do not watch Beck, or anyone else for that matter.[/quote]
I never said that. But you do sound pretty much like Beck regardless of where you get your economic news
Yes, Buffet gets all kinds of special deals because of the size of his investment. But, he wouldn’t buy into any of it if he thought that he was going to get clobbered. I followed him into his Goldman Sachs bond investment early and made a bundle. He got a better deal than I did of course, but I still made money.
There’s your mistake. You are assuming that in this case history will repeat itself and so far it really has not. Look at the unemployment figures alone. Do you know what they were? If you are a student of history you’d know that they were 25% during the great depression and that Canadian unemployment figures were even higher. You would also know that we had other (less severe) depressions prior to the Great Depression.
Sometimes an economic cycle can be harsh and, lead to a depression. However, sometimes an economic cycle can be harsh but lead to only a severe recession, which is what we are currently in and most likely pulling out of, or at least on the other side.
If you were a student of history you would realize these things.
Glad to hear that you’re rational.
It has already hit the fan, you missed it.
[quote] I have said all along that the key would be reversals in the long trends of gold and the U.S. dollar. We may be seeing this now. We will probably see a short term resumption in both that will reassure the bulls and set them up for a fall. I do doubt that we will see gold above $1230 again for a very long time.
Again, having said all this, if I truly had it all figured out I would be on my island right now and you guys would be the furthest thing from my mind. Until then, I will continue to play internet wise man with you guys. [/quote]
Of course none of us know exactly how or where this will end. My only point is that while you are playing the Internet wise man I am going to continue to follow those who have made money in the market and are in fact wise to this economy. Not just Warren Buffet but the many others who (like me) have made 40%-60% on their money since the dow was under 7000. From what I’ve seen from those wise investors we are already through the middle of this recession and now is a great time to take advantage of still very low market prices.
[quote]John S. wrote:
[quote]ZEB wrote:
As the dollar gains strength and the stock market continues to hold its own I wonder what the doomsday predictors are thinking? [/quote]
You mean the stock market that lost 1% today? The stock market is beginning to give, it will fall, people will use their dollars to buy into it. The cycle is the same cycle as it was before.
[/quote]
Then QUICK RUN. lol
FDIC Friday.
Three newest members hail from Florida, Arizona and Kansas I believe.