Trump: The First 100 Days

[quote=“loppar, post:3833, topic:223365, full:true”]

Jobs was Syrian as much as Obama was Kenyan. von Ahn hails from Guatemala, and Guatemalans “have little to no skills and don’t even speak English” according to you. He’s definitely an outlier, but he pretty much invalidates your statement.[/quote]

I do know Microsoft is always in the tops for hiring foreign nationals via H1B program.

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Oh yes we are going to bother. Uganda and Zimbabwe were two extreme examples where two demagogues (for the record both of them insane) instituted idiotic policies to please their political base. These decisions had a catastrophic case on their respective economies - in Uganda’s case Indians pretty much owned all commercial enterprises and small businesses, while white farm owners in Zimbabwe were the driving force of local agricultural economy. [/quote]

Indian and European immigrants do better overall economically than African immigrants regardless of the country. It has nothing to do with “expelling foreigners” rather getting rid of more productive populations in favour of less productive ones.

Compare Indian immigrants to US, Canada UK to African immigrants to these same countries you’ll notice a pattern.

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Do you have any idea what would happen if the US expelled all those foreigners working in the Valley and how much R&D would suffer without all those foreign postgrads? [/quote]

America did quite fine for most of it’s history without these populations, I’m sure they’ll be just fine without them.

They’re the data you brought to the discussion. For multiple reasons, I have elected not to challenge their validity/reliability.

Re point one–I agree, they do not support my claim of a rightward shift. Re point two, I am at a loss as to how you can continue making this claim. If you are going to persist in this, at the very least you need to offer a definition of a dataset’s ‘central tendency’ that not only does not involve its mean/median/mode, but actually supersedes them as a measure of it. (That is going to be a tall order, BTW.)

As I said above, I have elected to accept your data at face value for multiple reasons. (Chief among them is that this is an internet discussion the purpose of which is entertainment/enjoyment, and thus it’s not worth my time to wade into a massive Pew dataset in an effort to evaluate it.)

Again, I presented my own data in support of my opinion. There is nothing “contradictory” in saying ‘my data support conclusion X, your data lend support (albeit partial) for X, and none of the data support your conclusion Y.’

From my very first post on this subject, I have acknowledged the resurgence of the Dem left during the recent POTUS election cycle. If you want to argue for a leftward shift prior to that, you’re going to have to provide data. Since (per you) there is no doubt that this occurred, such data should be very easy to come by.

@thunderbolt23:

“EVERYBODY who liked Norman Ornstein and Thomas Mann’s piece in the Washington Post on Sunday has something to quibble about, so I’ll get mine out of the way now. Messrs Ornstein and Mann write: “While the Democrats may have moved from their 40-yard line to their 25, the Republicans have gone from their 40 to somewhere behind their goal post.” It’s not entirely clear what time period the authors are talking about, but their observation doesn’t work for any time period I can think of. The Democrats, as far as I can see, have moved from their 40-yard-line to midfield, or their opponents’ 45. As recently as the Clinton presidency, Democrats actively pushed for gun control, defence budgets under 3% of GDP, banning oil exploration off America’s Atlantic and Pacific coasts, a public option or single-payer solution to universal health insurance, and…well, Clinton-era progressive income-tax rates. Today these positions have all been abandoned. And we’re talking about positions held under Bill Clinton, a “third way” leader who himself moved Democratic ideology dramatically to the right, the guy responsible for “ending welfare as we know it”. Since then, Democrats have moved much further yet to the right, in the fruitless search for a compromise with a Republican Party that sees compromise itself as fundamentally evil. The obvious example is that the Democrats in 2010 literally passed the universal health-insurance reform that had been proposed by the GOP opposition in the Clinton administration, only to find today’s GOP vilifying it as a form of Leninist socialist totalitarianism.”


"On a recent primary night, MSNBC host Chris Matthews was comfortably bantering on his program with former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele and EMILY’s List President Stephanie Schriock when the conversation suddenly offered a revealing moment about the direction of America’s two dominant political parties.

Matthews didn’t even bother asking Steele whether the GOP was moving to the right on the ideological spectrum, he simply asserted it.

“Moving?” a wide-eyed Steele interjected, triggering laughter all around. Whether they like it or not, most every sober Republican agrees on the rightward trajectory of their party.

But when Matthews posed a similar question to Schriock about the Democrats, there wasn’t an immediate, simple, gut reaction.

“It’s a good question,” Schriock replied, pausing for a few seconds before settling on “no.”

“I think it is … commonsense, middle America with a voice for economic opportunity,” said the leader of the most prominent interest group for female Democrats in the country. “I don’t think that’s taking the party to the left, I think that’s where the Democratic Party is.”


“The irony here is that Ornstein and Mann are explicitly arguing that reporters and pundits should drop the “both sides are responsible” pose and call a spade a spade. But even they feel the need to hedge a little. Nevertheless, the truth is that both sides haven’t moved away from the center. Only Republicans have, and Democrats have spent the past 20 years chasing them in hopes that eventually they could reach some kind of reconciliation. But it never did any good. The Democratic move rightward was interpreted not as a bid for compromise somewhere in the middle, but as a victory for a resurgent conservative movement that merely inspired them to move the goalposts even further out.”

Do you have any reason to think the data is wrong?[quote=“EyeDentist, post:3838, topic:223365”]
Re point two, I am at a loss as to how you can continue making this claim.
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You shouldn’t be, it’s dirt simple as has been explained multiple ways and even reinforved by points you made. The data show the Democratic Party’s aggregate move away from the middle, which means, as you’ve even acknowledged through your recognzing of DINOs, that the party broadly has moved to the left and no longer allows for less partisan Democrats to exist. An anecdotal example reflecting this is the lack of pro-life Democrats - once a decent-sized chunk of the party, no longer.

This shift, of course, is buttressed by what kind of support candidates will get in elections. The litmus test to get DNC dollars is much leas narrow than it was 15 years ago.

And that bears out in the Pew data, evidencing that the middle is no longer part of the party. Sure, you can say, “hey, there’s fewer socialists in the party than ever, so that makes it quite moderate”, but not in any real sense because the abandonment of the middle is the key to measuring increasing partisanship, which is what we’re discussing.[quote=“EyeDentist, post:3838, topic:223365”]
Again, I presented my own data in support of my opinion
[/quote]

Respectfully, I haven’t seen any data in support of a claim Democrats have moved right. Anecdotal claims? Yes. Data? No. Let me know if I missed something.[quote=“EyeDentist, post:3838, topic:223365”]
If you want to argue for a leftward shift prior to that, you’re going to have to provide data. Since (per you) there is no doubt that this occurred, such data should be very easy to come by.
[/quote]

Asked and answered, see the Pew chart and article, but where have you provided data Democrats moved to the right?

Really? Gun control, ceasing oil exploration, socialized healthcare, and tax hikes? The Democrats never shut up about this shit.

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Why do you ask? Have I suggested there is anything wrong with the data?

Forgive me, but I’m going to be pedantic for a moment.

Any distribution of data has two basic properties:

  1. Central tendency; ie, what is the ‘average’ score?
  2. Dispersion; ie, how ‘spread out’ are the scores?

When we’re determining the left-or-rightness of the political parties, we are essentially asking what their average level of partisanship is. This property is captured by the measures of central tendency; ie, the mean, median and mode. As you eyeball the graphs, it is clear that the measures of central tendency for the Dems are not changing from one graph to the next.

Now, what does change graph-over-graph for the Dems is how ‘spread out’ the scores are. This reduction in dispersion, however, cannot be used as an argument regarding a shift in the central tendency of the party. You would like to argue that the loss of Dem scores on the right indicate a leftward shift in the party. But consider: They lost scores on the left side of the distribution as well (which is why the center of the distribution didn’t shift one way or the other). So, just as it would be incorrect to say that the loss of members on the left side of the distribution means the Dems are more conservative, so too it’s incorrect to say that loss of members on the right mean the Dems have become more liberal.

“A Gallup poll of Democratic National Committee members (in February 2005) showed that, by more than two-to-one (52%-23%) the DNC members wanted the party to become more moderate, rather than more liberal. That view was shared by Democrats nationally; in a January 2005 survey, Gallup found that 59% of Democrats wanted the party to take a more moderate course.”

Asked and answered, see Wiki quote above.

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Obama on guns:

Obama on oil exploration:

Obamacare:

On taxes:

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That isn’t data proving the Democratic Party moved to the right - that, taken on its face, is a suggestion that the party had moved too far left since the Clinton/DLC days, the opposite of what you say happened…

…but that assumes it’s worth taking on its face. Did you read the actual article on which that Wiki claim - the survey saying 59% wanted a more moderate party - was purportedly based?

Here’s where that assertion comes from:

So, after Kerry’s loss to Bush in 2004, Democrats wanted to move in a more moderate direction (but the Deaniacs didn’t). Sure, makes sense - they had just lost an election by running a Northeastern liberal.

So, the party moved to the left post-Clinton and the unhappy rank-and-file said enough, move back to the middle, as evidenced by this survey.

That isn’t evidence of a rightward march since the DLC days - it’s the opposite.

Let’ see…Clinton moved the party rightward, then it moved back left, and then it moved right again. That’s two right shifts to one left. Sounds like I win. :wink:

All complete bullshit.

Obama on guns: Numerous import bans. Failed attempt at assault weapons ban. Executive orders redefining firearms dealers. Executive order striping some seniors of their gun rights.

Oil exploration: Keystone. Just past December banned certain areas of the Atlantic from offshore. Huge grants for “sustainable” energy.

Healthcare: Obamacare and the constant push for complete socialized healthcare.

Taxes: Obamacare (at it’s core one of the biggest tax increases in history), Payroll tax increase.

I’d like to go more in depth and post every story from the past eight years, I just don’t have the time.

Obama is not the only democrat. The democrat party has done nothing but push left my entire life. Clinton pushed left too, but Gingrich and congress pushed back.

I don’t know why I am stunned, but you made a pretty startling attempt at revising history.

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The party (smartly) relaxed enough to let moderates score seats in the House in purple districts, then turned left with Obama’s election and never looked back.

And no, under Obama, there was no shift to the right. The Affordable Care Act was a vanity project and was originally a vehicle for a public option. There was nothing moderate about foreign policy. The actions taken in courts by Obama’s DOJ were not the stuff of moderation.

I’m not saying Obama is the left-wing monster of his critics’ nightmares - just not that he and the Democrats veered rightward during his tenure. It simply isn’t true.

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The amount of goggling in this latest “argument” is boggling.

…and I mean the Googling used to support the mind-boggling views of the true believer in full blown, rose colored eye-goggle mode, that gets slapped on whenever our Messianic President is ever brought up.

Did that lefty rag Business Insider mislead me that badly? Or could you be overstating things a bit? For example, on Obama taking away senior’s guns:

As for his desire to curb the proliferation of assault-style weapons, well, having to deal with the parents of twenty 6 year-olds who had their faces shot off can have that effect on a person.

And yet, those pesky facts again:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-05/despite-protests-oil-industry-thrives-under-obama-energy-agenda

If you say so. Just remember, Obamacare equals Romneycare equals Heritage Foundationcare = 1990s GOPcare.

Weak beer. You can’t use Obamacare twice.

Would that we had a little more of that left-push:

(To be fair, this last one is misleading. By the end of Obama’s second term, the unemployment rate had fallen to 4.6%.)

You can’t seriously be saying Obama was pro-oil.

Saying an industry did good while he was in office is different than what his stances are. The dynamics of the oil industry are not 100% tied to the presidency. That’s the same dumb argument that brag about Obama getting gas prices down… he had nothing to do with it. Just like he had nothing to do with the Shale boom.

The regulations he put in place, specificaly his Clean Power Plan, are a reflection of his attitutes toward oil.

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Are you suggesting that being ‘pro oil’ and being ‘pro clean power’ are mutually exclusive?

Did he have something to do with opening millions of acres of the Gulf to exploration? If he did, how does that square with your implication that he is ‘anti-oil’?

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Not entirely, but when one of the goals of the plan is to substitute zero carbon dioxide emitting renewable sources for fossil fuels, it is clearly not pro-fossil fuel. I’m stating it as evidence of Obama’s perception of the oil industry. Take note, that moving away from fossil fuels can be a legitimate stance (and a separate issue), but you cannot be pro-oil and anti-fossil fuel at the same time.

Do I need to start pulling up all the regulations he put in?

To clarify, I do not think he was as anti-oil as he originally campaigned once he realized the implications of relying on other countries for oil and how states/local economies were doing with shale fracking and offshore drilling. My point is that your assessment of him being pro-oil and using the US oil production as evidence is very dishonest, ignoring all of the other factors that make the industry move in the way it has over the last 10 years.

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I disagree. One can recognize both our current dependence upon fossil fuels and the sociopolitical importance of producing it ourselves (ie, be ‘pro oil’) while simultaneously recognizing that that dependence is not to our benefit, and that it is in our interest socioeconomically, politically and environmentally to move away from fossil fuel as soon and as fast as practical (ie, be ‘anti oil’).

Perhaps the lesson we can draw from this is that labeling someone as ‘pro’ or ‘anti’ oil is frequently simplistic, misleading and needlessly divisive.

Yes, it would be possible to make a dishonest argument re a POTUS being pro-oil by simply pointing to production numbers. But the fact that Obama signed off on opening up millions of acres for drilling exploration/development (and pissed off his base royally by doing so)–that is rather straightforward evidence of pro-oil-ness, don’t you think?

That is what you did. Literally scroll a few posts up. Mindboggling. That is called being dishonest, which I expect from Raj or Zeb, but you’re better than that.

Lets look at the links you provided…All three of the links you stated as “facts” of his pro-oil stance used oil production graphs.

The CNNMoney article first talks about oil production, then asks if he is friend or foe to the industry where the Dem leading side said he’s been neutral and the GOP side said the industry has done well despite him, not because of him.

Your forbes link says “the other reason President Obama doesn’t spend more time beating the drum on this crude oil production surge is that it is readily apparent that it happened despite his administration, and not because of it.”

Your bloomberg article says “Oil industry leaders say Obama has driven strangling regulation, stifling U.S. energy production and blocking companies from plumbing new areas in search of crude”.

No. That is one piece of evidence, why focus there when there is so much more? Want to talk about the recent pipelines? Or, lets use your bloomberg article for talking points:

Finkel cited the Obama administration’s decision to reject the Canada-to-U.S. Keystone XL pipeline, impose stricter ozone limits and clamp down on potent heat-trapping methane emissions that are the primary component of natural gas. "The only reason consumers haven’t been buried by these costs yet is because our industry continues to innovate and increase efficiency,” he said.

The final amusing point about you stating how “Obama signed off on opening up millions of acres for drilling exploration/development” doesn’t consider that he only opened it up because he closed it in the first place.

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Guys Trump is meeting with Trudeau today, this will not end well for Canada.