Nah. I’m not very financially savvy, I’ve just seen a few peaks and troughs.
In fact, when I bought a house in the trough in 2010, a friend and I were discussing how everybody that had stacked up refi’s and whatnots credit was shot, and it would take 7-10 years for all of the bankruptcies to clear, which was also just in time for the next generation of up and comers to start getting spendy.
So the past two years are really just people my age getting back on their feet, and kids that were graduating high school in 2010 getting established in their work and becoming viable/valuable to creditors.
Which brings us to now. Putting it all together (Mind you, just spit balling) , but I’d say this current bubble has 3, maybe 4 more years to grow.
Full disclosure, I’m a welder/fabricator/tree cutter currently recovering from like my 4th heart surgery in two years-not the sharpest freakin tool in the shed, and definitely not a finance/money guy.
I’ve bought and sold three homes in 6 years, in three counties. I’ve never had staying in one location as a consideration. The house that will be finished in 10 days, my wife has told me she won’t live in for more than two years. It feels like you have held onto old-thinking constraints for buying a house.
In general, whenever I am trying to learn something new, such as buying/selling homes, I seek to understand the physics of the business NOT listen to opinions. If I understand the physics of it, I can develop my own strategies. Opinions without understanding are useless to me.
Understand financing, amortization, local taxes and insurance requirements (flood zone, building materials, etc) look up the local school district, city, parks, etc master planning. Search area you are moving to developments. Figure out where the urban growth boundary is. All that information helps determine a good area to move. Even if the market is stagnant, buying a home where a new K-5 school is going or new home in first phase of planned development are all ways to buy a home prior to appreciation by amenity demand. I 4X’d my money on my last house after 3 years by being second home in new development where a new elementary school was going. People wanted to be in the neighborhood with a brand new school and would pay extra for it.
Although, a $2,700 rent payment is far less than 5% down on a $400k home. Add ~$600/month for insurance, taxes, PMI and you’re still saving $350/month. That $400/month payment towards principal will pay off the loan 8.5 years sooner. Make your payment 30 days before it’s due, and you’ll shed another 2-3 years.
It feels like you have held onto old-thinking constraints for buying a house.