Why as a long term investor should I care all that much about short term risk? I just don’t think that is a wise move as an investor. I think it makes more sense to rely on proven indices.
edit:
I am sure that when you have clients that short term risk is important to mitigate. If you loose a bunch of money short term you risk business and reputation. However, I don’t believe that should be a concern for a long term investor.
I don’t doubt you know more than I do about investing, and especially investing for other people. It is a different game. But to say that I am clueless, I think is off base. We just have different investment goals.
Well, this is true. He could also out perform you.
I am not a retail worker, but the fact that you want to put them down is pretty telling about yourself.
I doubt anyone in here wants UBI. UBI is probably inevitable.
A) Automation is going to take the vast majority of low-skilled jobs in the next 10-15 years. Then, as technology improves, it will take even more jobs. I don’t think anyone disputes this at this point.
B) A.I. is going eliminate middle-class jobs in the next 15+ years as well. Companies are already developing AI for accounting, law, etc…
C) A huge portion of the population will not have the intellectual capacity to work the newly created jobs or the remaining jobs and the amount of people companies will need to employ will go down as machines do the jobs. This isn’t rocket science. We have a few thousand people in our warehouse that could be replaced by automation now and we’d need to retain maybe a 10th to maintain the machines.
So, unless we all get a Neurolink or something that boosts IQ by like 50pts on average, a fuckton of people are going to be unemployable. Not unemployed. Unemployable. UBI is the obvious solution since we probably aren’t going to let people starve to death in the hundreds of millions.
You are right, we are likely delaying the inevitable. Even the aforementioned hedge fund management decisions can (and is) made by computers a lot time. The more data we feed the AI/ML world, the sooner most menial tasks will be replaced.
Heck, I don’t even vacuum my floor anymore thanks to iRobot’s Roomba.
Lol, exactly. I keep seeing an ad for a Roomba like tractor. The world is going to look different in 20-30 years. Think about how different the 90s were than today. I can still hear the screeching dial-up sound in my head now I can literally say “Alexa order me chips” and boom they’re on the way.
Imo, AI is the real game-changer. Automation will displace a lot of workers, but AI will eliminate well-paying careers.
These already exist for large agriculture. Many of the modern tractors are GPS guided and steer themselves in the fields. The farmer is there only to make sure nothing goes wrong.
I’m sure that’s what you need to tell all the people you rip off. You would be in job displacement if people knew many simple ideas that are cheaper than what people like you “do.” It’s not hard to access information and I’ve done just fine without active management. My parents pay someone and they aren’t any better off. It’s not like information isn’t abundant. I have no doubt you know more about the stock market than I do just like I have no doubt my parents managers know more than me.
Not your fault though. A lot of people in your line of conning think they are hot shit. Your nose is so far up your own ass but I doubt you mind the smell. Won’t be long before robots can outperform everyone in your job. A little job displacement might do you good.
Good friend of mine watches YouTube videos while farming and while he’s pretty successful and farms a lot of ground he’s not some large agribusiness. You can find articles talking about farmers inputting GPS in and then binging series of Netflix while they “drive.”
Buffet doesn’t think anyone is really capable of beating index funds long term. I take what that man says as about as true as you can get.
Many hedge funds that have outperformed indexes long term have been charged with insider trading.
The guy claims he can’t post his long term returns due to NDA. I’m pretty sure they are required to publish them? Maybe I’m wrong here, but that line threw up flags for me.
I am of the opinion that if you know you can’t on average beat the market, that it is dishonest work taking people’s money to manage it. Sure you can make a lot of money legally, but legally doesn’t equal honestly.
They most likely already do. Services like betterment (algorithm based trading) also outperform managed funds on average already.
Another clueless idiot who again cannot understand risk adjusted returns and risk management in general. Tell me, when everything fell apart in 2008-2009 how was your return? When the market panicked over Covid19 how was your portfolio? Simple ideas, lol. No idea what goes into risk management and asset allocation for a fund with multiples of tens of billions of dollars. Go back to your occupy Wall Street drum circle, clown.
The Buffet comments are hilarious, like the hypocrite he is he runs a large fund that is in active management. So if Warren thinks you can’t beat the market, why doesn’t BRK just divest all individual equities in favor of index ETFs? Hypocrite, just like he is with his statements on taxes, he’s yet to write a check to the IRS above what he owes.
Everyone in the industry knows an individual PM is not permitted to post a pod’s return, the fund level can publish the total return if they wish but most do so only to investors via quarterly letters. More proof you don’t understand what you’re talking about and don’t know a single person in the industry. I actually know someone at a fund who did that on his LinkedIn and got fired; he was pretty dumb, but nonetheless it happened. The only thing funds are required to show is a stale 13-F within 45 days of the position date if they’re over $100mm (which is basically everyone). The 13-Fs don’t include shorts, futures, swaps, options, etc.
You still can’t figure out hedge funds are not comped against “the market”. Tell me, what’s a merger arbitrage fund comp against? How about a market neutral equity fund? FX? Options? How about commodities? See how uninformed you are?
FYI, outside Renaissance Technologies quant funds typically suck.
I’ll never understand why people speak about things they’re clueless about; it baffles me.
Dude, many here have already said including myself that you know more about investing than us. That doesn’t change the fact you have acted like a total duche.
I didn’t have any holdings in 08. But had I invested in index funds during that time the data supports that the fact that I would have made a killing.
I’m talking about long term returns, not short. That is what most people should care about. The data also supports that it is a good strategy vs a managed fund.
I’d recommend you get over yourself a little bit. Are you here to have discussions about subjects or is this just your blog where you can tell everyone else how stupid they are?
A lot of smart posters on t-nation. You’re not one of them despite your insistence on telling everyone what a genius you are. Not sure why you decide today would be your mandatory troll day.
It’s not about knowing more, it’s just the hysterical claims about hedge funds and long only AM not “beating the market”. The passive indices are NOT a benchmark. The pensions, endowments, charities, etc. that invest in these firms understand what a risk adjusted return is, I have NEVER heard an institutional client even mention the “market” vs a return; literally never. The “data” you’re citing is NOT using a Sharpe ratio, it’s not using the mitigation of tail risk, etc. You’re using comps that are literally meaningless. Everyone in the industry, including our LPs, fully understand this.
This simply started by me providing reasoning why UBI is idiotic. I was asked what my qualifications were, I gave them, then I was attacked for “ripping people off” so I defended what I do. Try to read the thread.
