The Rational Hawk - Beyond Neocon

“Today, America would be outraged if U.N. troops entered Los Angeles to restore order [referring to the 1991 LA Riot]. Tomorrow they will be grateful! This is especially true if they were told that there were an outside threat from beyond, whether real or promulgated, that threatened our very existence. It is then that all peoples of the world will plead to deliver them from this evil. The one thing every man fears is the unknown. When presented with this scenario, individual rights will be willingly relinquished for the guarantee of their well-being granted to them by the World Government.”

Dr. Henry Kissinger, Bilderberger Conference, Evians, France, 1991

[quote]hedo wrote:
Dandlex

Good post. However I think you are missing the point. The man never says might makes right. He says you need to be strong and not fearful of using your military. Many nations are quick to take that option off the table because they have become weak. We shouldn’t emulate weakness.

I will take issue with one point. The US is perfectly capable of upping the ante from a military and economic standpoint. We have chosen not to do so…yet. The US military we have now is a drawn down version of the one that existed in the early 90’s. We maintained that level throughout the Cold War. In other words the US has not put itself on a war mobilization footing. Just because we haven’t doesn’t mean we can’t.

Even at a greatly drawn down level the US military is still capable of dominating the battlefield. Additionally the restrictions put on our military would likely be lifted in a more global or regional war. Take Fallujah for example. We took great care not to damage property or cause civilian casualties. We didn’t have to do that. To be honest an armored battalion with air support could have done that mission with a lot less US casualties. The flip side is a lot more civilians would have been killed and property destroyed. That’s a choice the US made, not something we had to do.

From an economic standpoint you screw with your largest customer at your own risk. Again in time of war sacrafices are made. Regardless First World countries don’t really make war against each other anymore. The economies of smaller less developed nations are far more likely to collapse under US pressure and being mindful of that are far less likely to piss off their best customer. [/quote]

Vroom, I don’t know that he is going quite as extreme as you believe. However, he is advocating the use of the military more, which, in my opinion, is bad.

Hedo, you look upon the reluctance to use the mmilitary as a weakness. I think it a sign on strength. By doing so, countries are thereby insisting that there is another way to settle disputes. Which, 90% of the time, there is.

I agree that the US military is far more capable than any other military on the face of the Earth. And yes, we have not “mobilized” in the sense of all of our industrial capacity being turned over to the war effort. And I understand that we took several great pains in order to avoid civilian casualties.

However, has not the concept of “Total War” been the dominant one in the last century? The Civil War first proved that sometimes an army isn’t the most important thing to break- it is the will of the people. This was practised (as it had to be) in WWI and WWII.

Now, if we can’t use the concept of total war, as we have been, and we cannot draft, because half of the country thinks this war isn’t worth it (not to mention my theory about the government not wanting that many people watching), why be there at all? The last war we fought that was similar to this was Vietnam- trying to fight a war that was not “total war”, yet we were drafting. When the end can’t justify the means, the war will not work.

War is always the ruling class sending the poor to fight against each other. If they are going to do this, why shouldn’t there be some “glorious cause” for the workers to rally around, such as defeating a fascist Germany that threatens the world?

"Regardless First World countries don’t really make war against each other anymore. "

DOn’t you think that there is something wrong with this? You are right, of course, but why has the US fought with Vietnam? Why Britain with India, or Ireland? Why the USSR and Afghanistan? DO you notice that the “superpower” always loses these wars? That they literally drain the richer country in both spirit and money?

You guys say that not the whole country in Iraq is against the US. That is true. But how many are needed to really oppose it? Fully a third of the people in America were opposed to the Revolution (“Tories”) or did not care. IT was only that very vocal and radical 1/3 that brought everything about.

In 1917, the Communists were a very small part of the population, yet they managed to take over the entire country of Russia, only because they were better organized than anyone else, and able to seize power.

After the 1916 Easter Rising in Ireland, the population was disgusted with the “Revolutionaries”, and spit on them as British walked them towards the prison. However, when the “Sixteen Dead Men” were executed, Ireland went into a storm of rage, and started a guerilla war against British oppression.

What I an trying to say is that any war that is based on trying to direct the way of a nation that is not yours, is bound to have bad effects.

Fightin,

As always interesting and a lot more on point then “the sky is falling” tact taken by others.

My point about mobilization is that Danalex made the assumption the US couldn’t handle a conflict bigger then the one were in. I pointed out that we could.

Interesting analogies you brought in but you left out a couple of big ones…Germany and Japan.

First world countries don’t make war on each others anymore because the cult of personality and ethnic and religous conflicts have been left behind in most cases. The third world still succumbs to petty dictators and criminals who use religion to foster their agenda. The current Islamic Radicalism is simply the latest ieteration of a movement that has confronted Westerners since 1100. This time we are much less prepared for the assault, particularly in Western Europe.

As the writer pointed out nobody likes to see a sheafed sword more then a soldier. However not having one available and knowing how to use it is foolish when your enemy does not share your viewpoint and in fact feels it’s his religious duty kill, convert or tax you.

It’s interesting that the left has defined patriotism with being against the war and administration. This was not always such. I don’t think the majority of the country buys it…not even 1/2.

I can’t speak for anyone else, but what I am against is leading the public to war in a charge of fear.

While it is a different political kettle of fish that we need not get into, other than for showing my basis on this, I think an informed public deciding on a war based on its merits instead of hyped and now shown incorrect fears, gives the nation the right to wage war.

So, personally, I am not in fact against “war”, but instead the use of it without the willing support of an informed population. You and I both know that is quite hard to get. We should be able to amicably disagree on whether or not that actually happened.

It, the agreement, was there for Afghanistan, and hence, you don’t see much of anyone bitching about that whatsoever.

If, and of course not everyone feels this way, but if you believe the administration was selective in its distribution of knowledge in order to heighten fear and launch a war against Iraq, then it is very appropriate to be against the administration and the war.

Again, we should be able to amicably disagree on points such as this, but still recognize and accept the validity of other viewpoints based on beliefs held on points such as this one.

That being said, I think most everyone against this war is still very proud of the man on the ground and very thankful for the duty and honor they show on a daily basis. There will be wingnuts that don’t feel that way.

Anyway, I know some people are easily offended, so no, I’m not trying to pretend that I’m American or that the men on the ground in Iraq are from my country or anything like that.

Vroom

I don’t think that the average person, or even a well informed one, has the knowledge or specific intel to decide when to unleash the military. Srategies will always be a mystery to most out of necessity. Others simply will never understand them.

So I don’t think all people in a nation get to decide if the country goes to war. It’s leaders do. The people get to choose them. Everyone will not agree with them.

All that being said. I feel an obligation to support those who fight our battles. Others may choose to do so in different ways that I don’t agree with. I’ll support dissent, and I think this writer described a rational form of dissent, it’s when the dissent gets over the top, that the backlash begins. That’s what’s happening now in my opinion.

Hedo,

I think most people figured out after Pearl Harbor that it was a good time to go to war.

Whether or not “the people” know, it is their elected officials that get to decide on their behalf. As you know, there is great debate about whether or not there was a deliberate use of intelligence to snow the elected officials and dupe them into believing there was a need for war.

Personally, I don’t believe the US was set up to allow agressive wars or preemtpive wars. For this reason it is supposed to be difficult to get your war on!

There is a lot of room for discussion around covert strikes against known targets versus large scale land committments like Iraq. The whole concept of a democracy is that “the people” should be given the information they need to make decisions and then they should be trusted to do so.

Anything short of that, such that someone other than an elected representative making a decision on behalf of his or her constituents, resulting in that person deciding they know better than the public is a recipe for disaster.

This is why the public is so pissed off. They are starting to believe the administration was manipulating them into a war. Holy crap, that is serious stuff indeed!

Again, I’m not against “war”, but you have a system of checks and balances in place to protect against abuses. Deciding that the populace is stupid so the checks and balances should be sidestepped is incredibly risky business.

Remember, the military is sworn to uphold the constitution, not to spread democracy or blindly follow the orders of the president. There is a reason for that.


Hedo:
My point about mobilization is that Danalex made the assumption the US couldn’t handle a conflict bigger then the one were in. I pointed out that we could.


Just to refine my perceptions on this.

My assumption is the the US could not support more military engagements in its current social and cultural mindset. As well as the existing mindset of the world.

Yes, it is true that the US could have gone in and bombed the Iraqies back to the stone age, regardless of civilian life.

However, controlling an hostile country seems to require occupation forces, and a lot of them the more recalcitrant the population.

And secondly, the type of attack mentionned above, regardless of enemy civilian casualties would truly not fare well for the world opinion and even the internal political opinion of the US.

In that sense, I was saying that this could not realistically happen unless there was a real shift in mentality by the US population. Which even 911 failed to maintain beyond a couple of months.

So I was discussing the possibilities as per the Bloggist mentionned in the current state of world affairs, and sadly, I believe he his mistaken.

I am not saying you should not flex your military muscle once in a while, like for Afghanistan, but I believe it is important to realize that the new type of enemy we are facing as little care about such things, considering they have only been somewhat hindered in their abilities to strike at the Western World through our military actions.

As for the mentions of Might Makes Right, I hardly see how this concept could be missed considering that the notion of war being diplomacy by other means is a perfect example of this proverb. Do X or Else is Might Makes Right.

Might Makes Right is still the absolute power card to be played geopolitically. Its use is often dependant on context, but it remains the winning card none the less.

I beileve this will remain so for a while, when we look at terrorist organization that take hostages and demand countries to remove their troops from Iraq and succeed or bomb their cities and have governments fall to be replaced with an anti-war one.

The terrorist groups are still able to levy their might against us while we are able to levy might against countries which, in this war against terrorism is a secondary or even tertiary objective.

Levying our might effectively would be putting a significant portion of the United States Armed Forces directed atcounter-terrorism efforts(I always think to the end of Swordfish, with that Sheik’s boat blowing up at the end).

It would be a possibility that instead of invading countries and spending billions and billions in troup transportations, fleet movements, high-tech equipement, air strikes and so on an so forth, maybe it could be a possibility to look into an Israeli way of doing things. Covert operations, directed assasinations, fake terrorist actions against muslim civilians (they seem to do that alot to themselves even without our help), infiltration, freezing money accounts and so on an so forth.

In the end, I just believe that the type of warfare we’ve been engaging in Iraq is not the way to go for the War on Terror (it is the way to go for other things of course) but I think that in time a switch in mindset will occur, I just hope it doesn’t take too long.

AlexH

[quote]hedo wrote:

My point about mobilization is that Danalex made the assumption the US couldn’t handle a conflict bigger then the one were in. I pointed out that we could.[quote]

[quote]vroom wrote:
I don’t think that the average person, or even a well informed one, has the knowledge or specific intel to decide when to unleash the military. Srategies will always be a mystery to most out of necessity. Others simply will never understand them.

Hedo,

I think most people figured out after Pearl Harbor that it was a good time to go to war.

Whether or not “the people” know, it is their elected officials that get to decide on their behalf. As you know, there is great debate about whether or not there was a deliberate use of intelligence to snow the elected officials and dupe them into believing there was a need for war.

Personally, I don’t believe the US was set up to allow agressive wars or preemtpive wars. For this reason it is supposed to be difficult to get your war on!

There is a lot of room for discussion around covert strikes against known targets versus large scale land committments like Iraq. The whole concept of a democracy is that “the people” should be given the information they need to make decisions and then they should be trusted to do so.

Anything short of that, such that someone other than an elected representative making a decision on behalf of his or her constituents, resulting in that person deciding they know better than the public is a recipe for disaster.

This is why the public is so pissed off. They are starting to believe the administration was manipulating them into a war. Holy crap, that is serious stuff indeed!

Again, I’m not against “war”, but you have a system of checks and balances in place to protect against abuses. Deciding that the populace is stupid so the checks and balances should be sidestepped is incredibly risky business.

Remember, the military is sworn to uphold the constitution, not to spread democracy or blindly follow the orders of the president. There is a reason for that.[/quote]

Vroom

If you think that covert strikes are justified then you are accepting the fact that military force is justified. Debating the level of force is not something the public is able or qualified to do. That falls to the elected leaders and the advisers they choose to seek counsel from. They are the ones who are best qaulified to make that call. If the public plans our war strategy then we might as well give up now. Most Americans wouldn’t want the responsibility.

Of course if you disagree with them you can vote them out.

The idea that the public was misled is largely an emotional opinion, not supported by facts. The reasons the country went to war have been endlessly posted on these forums.

Hedo,

This is what I have been saying. That the public works through it’s elected leadership. However, the public needs to be kept reasonably informed. It is a terrible mistake to practice the style of elitism you are preaching.

Anyhow, it is not true that the facts have been decided as you see them. If you only listen to the sources of information that tell the story you want to hear it will appear that way to you.

There is still a lot of debate and discussion going on in this area. Whether or not you think you have it right does not change the views of the populace – ignoring that reality is “dangerous”.

If you had been paying attention from step one, I have said all along I am not against the use of force nor against war, per se.

There are appropriate ways to bring a country into conflict. Ignoring the checks and balances set into the design of the country or feeding misinformation to your own citizens are not appropriate ways.

Finally, nobody is suggesting that the public needs to be involved in strategy and tactics. However, the public “decides” via representation when the military goes in and when the military comes out. The military, as it oft forgets, is simply an instrument of the state to be used as the state wishes.

It has no authority, purpose or privilege with respect to the public just as the public has none with it.

Vroom

I am glad that you agree with everything I said. As I have been pretty consistent in my views…what exactly is the point you are making then.

The time for public debate has passed. Troops are in the field engaging the enemy. Elections are in 06 and 08. The media is presenting a one sided disaster and terrorizing the home front a lot more then the administration. When in doubt…go to the source. The men in the field. Have you done that. I am curious on your sources that are non media related.

I wouldn’t underestimate what I read just to make a point in an argument. I am very well read and informed on the topics I choose to participate in. If I don’t have an opinion or some knowledge on a topic I tend to sit back and listen to the debate. I don’t think you can make that statement with a straight face. Just because someone is equally or better informed on a subject then you doesn’t make them wrong or deficient in sources.

Stick with the point not the person. It’s a lot more fun and informative for everyone when you do. Don’t you think?

Hedo,

Nice, I like the “I’m the man on the ground so I know” story. Policy is the domain of the public, not the military or the man on the ground, except as they are their own slice of the public representation.

Sorry, the time for public debate never passes. The military can do what is has been charged to do until the day the public, through representatives decides it will stop. I’m sorry, but public policy trumps military wishes – it is that way on purpose.

Things change, situations change, the world adapts. You are seeing the public adapt to the fact that there never were any WMD’s and that Iraq never presented a real threat to the US.

My arguments and points either stand for themselves or they don’t. I don’t claim to know more than anyone else. I claim only to represent my opinion and when I see critical issues in others opinions I discuss them as well.

Perhaps since I’m not serving I should have nothing to say? Is this the same elistist attitude that says the public is too stupid to be involved in decisions made by the government?

Do you actually believe in a democracy that involves the populace in control of the country or do you prefer that the public gets to cast votes and pull levers with the real power and decision making happening elsewhere?

I can’t tell by reading your posts.

[quote]rainjack wrote:
FightinIrish26 wrote:
Did I miss a war or something? When has Canada crawled under our skirts?

C’mon. Do you really think that Canada would have such a small military of they weren’t neighbors to the most powerful nation on earth?

They have built their socialisitc welfare/healthcare programs knowing that they don’t have to really spend that much on defense. They know full well that the U.S. will take care of them if trouble starts.

They will also continue to use phrases like “might makes right” as a slam against U.S. foreign policy - until they need us. They learned from their cousins very well. [/quote]

This constant idiocy is truly mindbogling. Since the French and the British stopped fighting over Canda in the 18th century, the only, and I do mean the only threat to Canada has been the US. In the 1930’s, according to recently declassified documents, the US drew up plans to invade Canada; the only deterrent being British intervention. Canada had never needed American protection against anyone, for the simple reason that no one else ever dreamed of invading it.

So please stop yakking about American protection. It’s not needed, nobody asked for it. Furthermore, since the original post quoted the Romans, they also used to say: Quid qustodiet ipsos custodes (Who shall watch the watchers).

[quote]vroom wrote:
Hedo,

Nice, I like the “I’m the man on the ground so I know” story. Policy is the domain of the public, not the military or the man on the ground, except as they are their own slice of the public representation.

The time for public debate has passed. Troops are in the field engaging the enemy.

Sorry, the time for public debate never passes. The military can do what is has been charged to do until the day the public, through representatives decides it will stop. I’m sorry, but public policy trumps military wishes – it is that way on purpose.

Things change, situations change, the world adapts. You are seeing the public adapt to the fact that there never were any WMD’s and that Iraq never presented a real threat to the US.

My arguments and points either stand for themselves or they don’t. I don’t claim to know more than anyone else. I claim only to represent my opinion and when I see critical issues in others opinions I discuss them as well.

Perhaps since I’m not serving I should have nothing to say? Is this the same elistist attitude that says the public is too stupid to be involved in decisions made by the government?

Do you actually believe in a democracy that involves the populace in control of the country or do you prefer that the public gets to cast votes and pull levers with the real power and decision making happening elsewhere?

I can’t tell by reading your posts.[/quote]

Your opinion is not fact. What you think is right is utopia not reality. Unless your enemy also pauses and reflects on his humanity…you’ll likely not have the time or luxury to negoatiate for the common good.

I’ll also state the obvious…your Canadian. When you can vote as a citizen of the US, you have a say in how it’s government is run. It’s a melting pot but you have to be in the pot to flavor the soup.

Whether you served or not is meaningless to me. However, when someone with lack of experience in military matters supports covert action rather then combined forces it’s fair to ask why they think so. Why do you dismiss someone with experience over that of a pundit? More about being argumentative then accurate I think.

I think your struggle is to be heard and listened to Vroom. I don’t feel the obligation to take you seriously. If that’s elitist so be it.

I’m not stating my opinion is fact. I will say though, that if I was in combat I wouldn’t be sitting around spouting fucking opinions.

Where do you get this stuff?

Well, unfortunately for you I get to have my say whether you like it or not. However, no, I certainly don’t have the voice of a vote – I don’t have that type of say. I don’t think anyone was under the impression that I did.

Oh, are you asking me to support my viewpoint on covert action instead of massive invasion and occupation? I didn’t see you ask me that before. Let me know if you are and I’ll explain my thoughts.

So, what exactly have I dismissed?

You are mixing various things into one argument…

How to conduct operations on the ground is not something I’ve expressed an opinion on. That is one apparent issue in your comments.

However, the stance of a foreign policy or how the public should be involved in policy decisions is something I have expressed an opinion on. This is the issue that I am addressing.

I haven’t dismissed the original authors viewpoint either. I disagree with the policy, in the broader sense, of might makes right. I think it is unwise and leads to enmity. I’m not the only person that thinks so either.

I also see in the author, and yourself, a style of thinking that implies the military way is the best way. The way of armed conflict is a way – but outside of the military it generally is not seen as the best way to resolve issues. Sometimes it comes to a military solution as decided by the people of the country (those that serve in the military included).

However, something that is key, the military does not have ANY special powers with respect to day to day operation and policy in a free society. It is that way for a reason. It is because the creators of most modern countries did not want the military to set policy and direction.

Perhaps because they felt that when all you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. To wit, the essay put forth by your blogger.

If it makes you any happier, all of this is of course only my opinion.

Vroom

Yes it makes me happier.

So why do you think covert action would be a better approach then that of combined forces?

I share a lot of the authors viepoints that’s why I posted it.

[quote]hedo wrote:
Vroom

I am glad that you agree with everything I said. As I have been pretty consistent in my views…what exactly is the point you are making then.

The time for public debate has passed. Troops are in the field engaging the enemy. Elections are in 06 and 08. The media is presenting a one sided disaster and terrorizing the home front a lot more then the administration. When in doubt…go to the source. The men in the field. Have you done that. I am curious on your sources that are non media related.

I wouldn’t underestimate what I read just to make a point in an argument. I am very well read and informed on the topics I choose to participate in. If I don’t have an opinion or some knowledge on a topic I tend to sit back and listen to the debate. I don’t think you can make that statement with a straight face. Just because someone is equally or better informed on a subject then you doesn’t make them wrong or deficient in sources.

Stick with the point not the person. It’s a lot more fun and informative for everyone when you do. Don’t you think?[/quote]

Hedo, have you been to Iraq? I’m not being a dick, I am just curious when you got out of the military.

From what I hear from both every news organization and my buddies that are there, it certainly isn’t a terrific place to be, and things aren’t going smoothly. Where does your information come from on how things are going?

[quote]FightinIrish26 wrote:
hedo wrote:
Vroom

I am glad that you agree with everything I said. As I have been pretty consistent in my views…what exactly is the point you are making then.

The time for public debate has passed. Troops are in the field engaging the enemy. Elections are in 06 and 08. The media is presenting a one sided disaster and terrorizing the home front a lot more then the administration. When in doubt…go to the source. The men in the field. Have you done that. I am curious on your sources that are non media related.

I wouldn’t underestimate what I read just to make a point in an argument. I am very well read and informed on the topics I choose to participate in. If I don’t have an opinion or some knowledge on a topic I tend to sit back and listen to the debate. I don’t think you can make that statement with a straight face. Just because someone is equally or better informed on a subject then you doesn’t make them wrong or deficient in sources.

Stick with the point not the person. It’s a lot more fun and informative for everyone when you do. Don’t you think?

Hedo, have you been to Iraq? I’m not being a dick, I am just curious when you got out of the military.

From what I hear from both every news organization and my buddies that are there, it certainly isn’t a terrific place to be, and things aren’t going smoothly. Where does your information come from on how things are going? [/quote]

Nope closest I got was Kuwait and Saudi. Left active duty after GWI and the reserves two years later.

I would encourage you to read some of the mil blogs. Blackfive, who wrote the piece at the beginning is great and can link you to about a dozen more.
They are universally positive about the direction of the war. In fact I would be interested in reading a mil blogger who isn’t.

I never said it was a pleasent place. I have said the active duty military has a different opinion then the media about the war and it’s direction. I have several friends who are still in the Army and my company has 3 reservists who have returned.

Irish

Here is a piece from the Strategypage.com. James Dunnigan is well respected strategist and wargamer. He is a consultant to many Wall St. firms where is “commercial” strategies and opinions are frequently used. His partner Austin Bay is a Colonel in the Army and recently returned from Iraq. I’ve posted his articles many times and quoted him frequently. An excellent source on how the war is going.

They’re politics are not biased and they do not sugarcoat their opinions. It tends to come from a strategy and historical standpoint.

Dunnigans early works were required reading in the late 80’s and early 90’s. I have seen him speak on a few occasions and hope to do so again next year in NY.

A current opinion article is posted below.

The Strategy Never Went Anywhere

December 1, 2005:

The president of the United States, responding to criticism about a lack of strategy in Iraq, recently spelled out the U.S. strategy in a speech at the Naval Academy. The strategy was simple. Help train police and soldiers of the elected (by a majority of the population) government. As more police and troops become available, fewer American troops will be needed to deal with rebellious minority Sunni Arabs. Eventually, American troops will be gone entirely. What’s strange about this is that it has been the strategy since before Iraq was even invaded in early 2003. In fact, this has been American strategy for over a century. Such a strategy was successfully pursued in the Philippines and Cuba a century ago, and in many other places since, So what’s going on here? Politics is going on here. It was in the interest of the president’s opponents for it to appear that there was no strategy. It was in the interest of the media to go along with this “there is no strategy” charade, as it made for spectacular headlines, and breathless stories of a president mired in controversy and lost.

The recent presidential speech won’t change anything. The training and counter-terror operations will continue in Iraq, and opponents of the Iraq operation will continue to preach gloom and doom, and insist that there is no strategy. This bizarre situation is rarely remarked on in the media, since most journalists have bought into the fiction that “there is no strategy”, and to admit that the criticisms are based on wishful thinking, would be, at the very least, embarrassing, and definitely harmful to ones credibility.

Historians and troops in Iraq puzzle at this situation, concluding that it’s all some cultural aberration that they have no control over. It should be noted, that in earlier wars of this type, and American wars in general, it was common for the opposition politicians, and journalists in general, to make the same odd claims that, “there is no strategy”, when there clearly was.

So the next time you feel inclined to tag Arabs as illogical and given to fanciful (and unprovable) beliefs, just take another look at this battle over “where is the strategy” in the American and Western press.

Perhaps the confusion is because of the divide between strategy on the ground and strategy within the administration.

There is certainly strategy, objectives, missions and so on for the person on the ground.

As to some comprehensive overall high end strategy from the administration… it seems to have been lacking. This is evidenced by poor planning and handling of many things from the wars inception.

As usual, different people are talking about different things – and applying their viewpoints to something else.