The Push to 2020 Has Begun!

I don’t disagree. Communist is my hyperbolic disparagement of good ol’ Bernie.

Btw, have you seen the tax rates in those Scandinavian countries -mamma mia.

edited to spell mamma mia correctly lol

538’s about as good as it gets. I remember a big thread on the Obama/Romney matchup here where most people were saying they thought Romney would win. I told them I doubted it because of what Nate Silver was saying. That might have been the year he correctly predicted all national matchups?

Anyways to me the whole “all the polls were wrong” was a little bit overblown. State polls have always been a bit more unreliable and they aren’t taken nearly as often as the national ones. Clinton won the overall vote total by a decent margin. What essentially happened is Trump won a lot of states where a model may have shown him as like a 52-48 underdog.

Some models performed much worse than others, but even one that showed Clinton as 70% to win is still going to be wrong. If I remember right 538 was one of the models that even though it had Clinton winning gave Trump a higher chance than some others.

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This is correct. They were pretty good with their disclosures about Trump having a shot at winning, and I think they assigned about a ~30% probability of it happening at the time.

I don’t disagree here. They are high. Sweden especially.

I do however wonder what our actual tax rate is in the US (on average). We have many hidden taxes. We think about our income tax, SS, Medicare, FICA, but we are also taxed on all most all of our transactions, property tax every year, car/truck license and tabs, plus we have the expenditure of health insurance that they do not (which even if covered by employer mostly, that is pay you are missing out on).

Hahah. I was supposed to be making a subtle allusion to Sweden, but I misspelled “mamma mia”!!! Will go edit now LOL.

Have you seen the women in those countries?

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I saw Midsommar

I actually used to post on 2 plus 2 forums years ago. It’s a poker site Nate used to frequent before he really got into the statistical career. Before those Republican dickheads (freedom loving my ass) made it all illegal I paid my rent with online poker money in college. Back then you essentially couldn’t lose (I can explain) if you did it the way I did it. Online bonuses made it to where it was sure money if you did it right.

If I remember right those cocksuckers stuck it in a port authority bill and they also had their mitts on other forms of gambling already.
to make sure online poker wasn’t getting in the way of them making money.

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Elizabeth Warren got slaughtered on Super Tuesday. Why? Because Sexism.
This was a “death knell” for women candidates for President, says Rachel Maddow. Mean while, somewhere Tulsi vigorously waves hands
“I am still here assholes!”
So when the media and the woke left and the corporate left were both slamming Tulsi, that wasn’t sexism at all… No, that was justice… Why? Because she’s not bat shit crazy.
Now, lets be clear who they are calling sexists, they are calling sexist. Democratic voters are sexist. Because that is the vast majority who voted in those primaries.
So now
Hillary is claiming sexism too, for her failure to win the Presidency.

It begs the question, how can it be sexist if sex mutable characteristic you can pick at any time? She could have chosen to be a man, she could have announced that at any time, but she chose to run as a woman.
So to recap, Warren got destroyed in the primaries, not even winning her own state and it’s because democrats are really sexist pigs.

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The left : men and women are equal and the same !

Also the left : if a woman fails for any number of legitimate reasons - Reeeeeee sexistssss

Crabs in a bucket.

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If you don’t watch the news channels as you’ve claimed on numerous occasions, then how do you know what Maddow said?

Takes a special brand of moron to think Rachel Maddow, Sean Hannity, Limbaugh, etc have something worth listening to it. The less time spent pointing out what anyone of them thinks (probably isn’t actually true they just know the words that keep them popular with their audience) the better the country will be.

Note I wasn’t calling you a moron just the people who listen/follow them in general.

It doesn’t help that pat the sheep posted quotes out of context.

Could be. I just don’t know if we want to be at a point where we sink low enough in the discussion to talk about what these type of shows even say. It’s like the old Glenn Beck stuff. If you’re watching it for pure comedy I get it. If you think a crazy dude in glasses writing on the chalkboard to show you that President Obama is actually OnlyBlackAmericanManiacAttacker or some such nonsense you need help. Calling these things news channels is probably false advertising at best.

It’s from an interview with Warren and she didn’t blame sexism.

I see. Must be coming from the same middle-lower class people who have been informed that raising taxes one iota on billionaires would have catastrophic effects on the economy.

Yeah a billionaire just spent 500 million in what 3 months on tv commercials and didn’t blink an eye? Something tells me he’s going to be ok.

Is it a write off?

I’ll never forgive them for that. One of my friends is a mathematician and professor who used to play online poker semi-professionally. Like, 10s of thousands of dollars in the black every year. Douchebags can’t just leave well enough alone.

Woke

Well, well, well…

Something that became a "wink/joke/wink/put-in-quotes-and-laugh" word for Conservatives (and, which by the way, is apparently not even used that much anymore by Black Americans because of it)…is apparently embraced now by the Trump campaign.

Supporters of Trump can now purchase “Woke” hats and “Black Voices for Trump” T-shirts from his campaign store as his team works to expand its outreach to black voters.

1a George Froeman WTF

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Oh, we’re playing the spout nonsense game. I’ll give it a shot…

Ben Carson got destroyed in the primaries, not even winning his own state and it’s because republicans are really racist pigs.

I played A LOT before I was diagnosed as bipolar and medicated. I can assure you it wasn’t that hard to lose.

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