Well, it’s not “among the Orthodox communities” in NYC and Israel.
It’s among the Satmar and Neturei Karta religious sects. (Notably in Lakewood, NJ as well.)
Yes, they happen to be Hasidic and Orthodox.
But these are the same assholes who meet with the leaders of Iran, want Israel destroyed, dodge the draft, and periodically try to harass Israeli women into dressing their version of frum.
To say that this Hasidic, Orthodox, but firmly Zionist Jew doesn’t care for them is the understatement of the century. The reality is somewhere akin to “Behold the field in which I grow my fucks. It is barren.”
That said, we’ve secured BBrek the best we can. Passover will be difficult.
Good luck dealing with them in NJ. I believe they are also vaccination deniers in addition to being assholes.
Interesting. As the spread of the virus slows and eventually reverses, do you think the market will start turning it’s attention (and correlations) to the state of the economy?
I’m looking at the prices of some stocks, like Tesla is practically back in bubble territory, and I’m thinking these are way over priced considering we are going to have a recession and we don’t really know what dominos might end up falling.
For those of you who have been buying and picking the lows like i recommended , now is the time to sell a huge part of your holdings. SnP is at 2800 a median level of 2018. It’s a pretty decent time to sell and buy some gold. The new unemployment claim shot up to 6.6m, in 3 weeks we lost 15m jobs that’s 10 pct of the workforce… In 3 more weeks we will lose another 15m, that’s 20pct of the workforce. Assuming we open in the middle of may, we will lose roughly 25pct of the workforce.
For those of you who missed the rallies, wait for the next plunge. I am 85% cash.
The higher the unemployment benefits claimed the higher the chance of economy reopen. Any rallies inspired by the fed is supplementary, rallies inspired by covid weakening is legit. If we reach spx 3000 keep selling.
Tesla has a huge cult following, i do think they will have some cashflow problems this year. Another worthwhile short is disney if it goes up to 130. Social distancing measures is going to bite amc and dis for a few years.
I am thinking along the same lines. I sold off everything this morning, which was mostly oil. Only thing I hold now (in my personal trading account), is calls 6-9 months out.
I actually agree with you. I’ve sold Tesla and all my index funds (while keeping all the other stocks I mentioned up thread) so I’m back heavily in cash.
It is in the back of my mind though that this time we might not retest lows. All other significant market corrections I’ve witnessed in my investing life have had head-fake rallies off the initial plunge then, either retested lows or continued straight into bear market territory.
This time we have a clear path to recovery. Handle the virus, get back to business as usual. If this happens with no significant reprecusions, wouldn’t we expect the market to go right back to the previous values and previous direction?
I’m not hearing stories about hedge fund managers jumping out of windows, margin calls not being met, companies going out of business, people losing their homes, economy not gonna restart. None of those dominos are falling. All that I’m happy about but if that’s the case I’m going to miss out on a hell of an opportunity. Though, so far, I’ve made money in this crisis.
Over 17 million people have applied for unemployment benefits in the last 3 weeks. We are no where near the bottom. You can possibly make some money with some quick scalps/day trades here and there. But, to think this is the bottom and a good time to get back into the markets is incredibly naive.
Mortgage delinquencies are up over 1000% in the last 30 days. Stimulus checks aren’t on the way yet. Lots of courts are closed so you won’t be able to evict/foreclose for months if you own real estate.
Interest Rates can’t really go lower and there isn’t enough liquidity in the markets for loan originators to write loans if the interest rates decrease again.
I honestly don’t see how the government can inflate the economy out of this one. It’s either defaults/failures, hyperinflation, or a combination of the 2.
I’m super bullish on Real Estate Investing after Covid-19 calms down for good…so probably 6 to 12 months away if not longer. That being said I’m super biased on Real Estate and run a business that buy/sells Performing and Non-Performing residential/commercial mortgages. So there will eventually be a huge supply of discounted loans for me to choose from. Commercial Real Estate is going to be fucked so hard that it may not recover in over a decade.
I truly hate to be soooo Doom & Gloom, but things are not good and they weren’t resolved at all during the last down turn.
There’s so many good companies at a discount you can go long on (DIS, MSFT, WFC, BAC, JPM, CAT, AAPL, IBM, etc etc). You be 15-20% on these averaged over the next 5 years. AMAZING.
Then you got the semi-gamble’s aren’t REALLY a gamble. CCL, RCL, DAL, UAL, BA, etc, etc). One of the bunch MIGHT go BK but I doubt it. You’re looking at 100% in 1-3 years here. AHHHMAZING!
However, I also am struggling as to whether this is a dead cat bounce/bull trap, or if this is what will turn into a continued rally as the world economy opens.
I don’t understand how wall st will react to horrible earnings.
However, there are many companies that will be delivering record earnings. This is huge value at where their stocks are trading.
Ehh you been listening to the media way too much. You literally sound like you work for CNBC.
This is a resilient world we live in. We’ll be back in no time. And the economies of the leading countries will fire up and run hard. Better than ever, motivated to the gills.
Be careful IronOne, those companies you listed are really not for the taking.
DIS We may be in a new era where people won’t be going to amusement parks or movies at near the numbers they did before. I’d wait and see on what kind of societal changes we may be making.
MSFT; well positioned for the growth of the Cloud but it is not trading at a discount. Share price hit somewhat of a bubble in February, otherwise it’s right on track for where it was trending already.
CAT is not trading at a discount and has been trending down for the last two years. The only way I’d buy CAT is if I saw the share price reestablish an upward trend or if I saw other signs that world infrastructure was starting to get prioritized. I’d really probably just buy XLB instead though.
AAPL is another one that is simply not trading at a discount. It was in bubble territory for the last six months and now is simply back on trend.
IBM has been trending down for 8 years. Management is not executing and until they get their shit figured out the stock is not worth investing.
I think you might be on the right track with the bank stocks. I’m going to start watching JMP & WFC.
My sense is that investors have been responding to the good Coronavirus news and not giving a thought to the economic fundamentals. That trend has been exacerbated by folks jumping back into the market not wanting to miss out on the gains. Also consider, without a vaccine or high levels of immunity among the population, it’s going to be difficult to get back to work without cases spiking again.
I think the economic data will show we are in a recession. Recessions last 11 months on average. From what I can tell, stocks generally bottom somewhere around the middle of the recession, sometimes later. So, we may still have some time to go. Also, volatility generally plummets during a true bull market, and it’s still pretty elevated. VIX futures are into the 30’s through October.
Another issue I see is that so many investors - institutional investors, funds, retail investors - are investing passively through index fund ETFs. The outcome is that the wheat isn’t getting separated from the chaff… everything is moving up together. So, you have some wonky valuations among S&P 500 members for example. I think reality will set in as earnings are announced.
In terms of specific plays, I think I’m going to buy some SBUX puts on Monday. They’re trading at 24x TTM earnings. Two things I’m fairly sure of. 1) That valuation is going to look even more expensive after earnings are announced. 2) If unemployment persists, people aren’t going to be stopping by SBUX for their morning lattes before their morning commutes because they won’t have the discretionary income, and they won’t have anywhere to commute to.
Fed is printing to restart, economy will restart in may, they have no choice. It’s either depression or 60k deaths. It’s a no brainer.
Next depend on consumers, will they still go cinemas or restaurants or parks? Not for a while. We might reach snp 3000 soon or the mania will push us to 3200. But the risk isn’t worth it, it was worth risking your capital before but now no.
You gotta think on what businesses can perform in conjunction with social distancing. For cruises i like ccl, they will survive. Nclh and rcl, do not have a strong position to ride out this mess up. It’s still a spec stock. Restaurants - fast food will survive, dine ins might go bust.
I think it’s a little more complicated than that. No one entity has the ability to turn the economy dial up to 100. Federal, state, local officials, plus private industry are all going to be setting policy around returning to work.
Plus you have to consider schools. Thinking about it now, I’m betting the reason why we seem to be putting a lid on things is because schools have been shut down. Kids are more likely to be asymptomatic and don’t wash their hands, making them the perfect ride for the virus. We can keep kids at home, but some will need supervision, which means some non-zero percent of the population can’t return to work. If we open schools back up, cases are going to spike.
We have a difficult decision ahead of us. How do we balance the loss of life with the economy. I think there will be massive public backlash if our leaders get it wrong and too many poeple wind up dead.
Yes, but the restart will still be in the agenda. And for people thinking about trading vs investing, trading means you take a long or short position if the underlying is over or underpriced.
My reasoning for selling is simple, is the rally based on a strong foundation or just shaky mud. On one hand we have, bad jobs number- so the fed prints money. That’s shaky man. So everytime a bad number comes out , they will print ? That is like adding cement to the mud.
The revision of the death toll rate to 60 k from 200k , affirms my belief we will reopen mid may roughly. If every 3 weeks , we lose 10 pct of our workforce. If we open in June , we would lose 30 pct.July maybe 40. The longer we shutdown, the harder to restart, people gotta look for a Job before they can contribute.
This is somewhat true. But. There is a rebound effect when the economy reopens. People are stir crazy, and the unemployment numbers will evaporate the minute businesses can be open.
there’s probably a second hit coming after the insanity of getting out of sequester, but in 6 months we’re at business as usual. By October this is a bad memory until the next thing happens.
