I’m going to make a wild prediction. Stocks are going to drop shortly after the stimulus bill is passed. I mean what’s left to look forward to after the thing is signed? The fed has already blown its load, so there are no monetary options left. The the new package will make like $2.5T in stimulus, which is more than what was spent during the financial crisis. Maybe I’m missing something though.
Edit: Anyone want to take bets on how much the market will drop when Trump inevitably fires Fauci and replaces him with a sycophant?
I’m betting everything on what happens on when the U.S. total infected rate passes 100k, which I think is inevitable given the massive size of places like N.Y.C
I don’t even know why I chose 100k; I think it’s just a large number that everyone will pay attention to.
The stimulus bill probably won’t do jack shit in the long run if the infection doesn’t peter out within the next month or so.
edit- I also have a sneaking suspicion that the bill won’t actually pass. News said they were very close to passing it today… then nothing else. I want to see what happens to the stock markets when the bill stalls or dies when it goes to Trump.
I’ve made a handful of SPY trades over the last two weeks. All were positive. I did not get in on any of the companies I mentioned earlier. I was simply late to the party and the risk/reward wasn’t there for me. I did buy LB and KSS this morning. Sold LB for a 30% gain and doubled up on KSS.
I think the retailers have been overly punished and the well positioned ones pose a better risk reward ratio than anything in the travel sector, as of today anyways.
For full disclosure to those reading, I am trading mostly on market sentiment. Most of the companies I’ve mentioned I do believe will be solid long term investments. Others are extremely risky but pose opportunity strictly based on volatility.
I think you’re off by a factor of 10. The US announced 8,000 new cases today, and the rate at which we’re adding new cases is accelerating. Cuomo said the number of cases in NY is doubling every 3 days. We’re going to hit 1 million cases before you know it.
The bill will pass. Mitch knows the party in power receives the blame when shit doesn’t get done. He’s too smart to let this thing die.
I think if anything this crisis has gotten people more comfortable with going online for anything and everything. Nothing heralds the death of brick and mortar store like folks ordering toilet paper from Amazon.
Amazon has already failed multiple times in getting into apparel. The budget friendly stores will prevail, not to mention the ones that already have robust online sales. The ones that have successfully navigated the closing of the American mall should make it through this storm too.
Amazon owns Zappos, East Dane and shopbob… that I know of off the top of my head. They are absolutely in the apparel game. I’m not saying Kohl’s (or whatever) won’t make it though. I’m saying Amazon and other online-only companies are likely taking market share from them right now. Most of that revenue will probably return to Kohl’s, DSW, etc. when this whole thing is over, but I’m guessing not all of it. Folks are changing their habits, and it may be hard to change back - inertia is a bitch.
Priced for bankruptcy would be if everything was penny stocks
I don’t see why stocks or the economy should be expected to recover much over the next week or two, sure it might, I guess. I expect the number of confirmed cases to continue to increase faster and for people to get more scared
We were probably due for a recession around now anyways according to the yield curve inversion last year. I was planning to dump my tech holdings in May after Ramadan/Zakat and get into commodities, but not anymore
Gold and silver stocks is the only thing I can see reason to think would do wildly well in the near future, tho I’m not betting very big that they will. I’m betting small that they will
I want to say there’s good reason to think it can get waaay lower than this, so I plan to allocate pretty heavily to cash for now, tho not completely. I’ve learned to not even aim for the head, usually
It all depends, we shouldn’t be aiming for a full recovery of the dow. What i am bullish about is because some stocks have been punished enough 60-75pct, that’s why i bought last week thursday. I am not god, i cannot predict the market, but I am sure we will beat this virus or gain herd immunity to it. Cuban said , at the end of the day, this will be as ubiquitous as the flu. Secondly the discount rate has fallen so low that 1 month tbills has gone negative. I value most of my stocks using the dcf model. I doubt they will go back previrus levels, but I can get a lot out of them. Now the valuations have gone up, I am more picky.
I’ve been the doing the same. OXY, 3M and LH have been huge for me this week. Took my profits, sitting in cash waiting for the numbers to cause people to panic.
I’d sell on any strength. SKT won’t be a DA much longer. I’m not sure it will exist much longer. Ugliest chart I’ve ever seen.
I don’t like stocks with divis over 6 percent or REITs with divis over 7. It generally means bad new ahead. I own AT&T and ABBV as well as some health care REITs. I’m not selling them but I’m not comfortable about it.