If municipalities have the ability to borrow, this would be a terrific time to accelerate infrastructure spend. Not only will it cause less disruption since there’s less traffic but will also help put money into the economy.
(a little libertarian part of me died inside typing that)
I’ve got a quarter billion to spend in next 4 years. Funding has already been voted on and approved.
IMO, the gov has a limited purpose and we are finally seeing it.
Here’s a crazy idea.
When we return to work could productivity be sky high because no one’s getting sick for the first 6-12 months? All the social distancing and other measures we’re taking is probably wiping out influenza and rhinovirus and it will take time until those viruses get reestablished in the developed world.
I’ve never missed a day of work over a cold but I lose countless nights sleep every year due to colds and I’m sure that affects my productivity.
Infrastructure spending is very region specific. In the US, DOTs are in vastly different financial health.
For instance, NCDOT is broke. All highway lettings have been pulled indefinitely due to being below the required cash floor. The budget has been poorly managed the last 2 years, and started with NCDOT leadership poorly appropriating funds for hurricane relief. They’ve not yet recovered or been fully refunded by FEMA, now this happens.
SCDOT continues to bid work, and is in a much better situation since increasing the gas tax and better managing the budget. However they even just released guidance this week that they are eyeballing a 3rd quarter reduction in let work due to decreasing revenues.
All DOT budgets are different, but this pandemic and shut down economy is crippling them.
HOWEVER…
…backlog and funded work, as @dchris mentioned is still very high in specific regions. This is where you will see some surprise positive earnings releases from companies that are positioned densely in these areas.
Construction material suppliers are a good place to look. My company has a massive backlog on design-build work in the SE, but we are a nationwide business with operations offshore as well, so it’s a bit murky on a large scale.
The problem with the entire business landscape is the complexity and uncertainty of future earnings. Guidance is VERY difficult to pinpoint.
I’ve simply gone back to the basics. What has always worked for me.
A diversified portfolio with companies I know well. Some risk plays that I have vetted and feel confident in, but won’t be gutted if it’s a flop. Understanding that my risk plays are long term positions that will be painful for awhile. Most importantly, it’s important that I stick to my self appointed investing rules.
And yes, construction as a whole is seeing much improved productivity.
But if work runs out because we’re still shut down, DOTs are broke, developers and owners pause private work, then it doesn’t matter.
Lennar for instance, America’s largest home builder, is saying they’ll start 20-30% less homes this year. I don’t believe them though.
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With all this said, Once this virus is in the rear view mirror, I think everything rockets out of a cannon. I think you need to find your buying opportunities now.
I’d advise the complete opposite. Hold your fire, wait and see how things shake out. This will separate fools from their money.
I’m not calling you pal, ‘tis just an expression, an accurate one though for this time in my opinion.
I hear you. We have already identified the two of us have differing opinions on investment style.
I gave this more thought again last night and cannot get my head around how wrong you are, and how defensive your strategy is. Frankly, there is no strategy there.
What’s your time horizon? It sounds to me like you are scared and your wealth owns you instead of the other way around.
Sit, wait? For what? Cheaper prices? What do you think I’m buying? I’ve explained several times I’m only buying scrutinized value stocks. The market is littered with them now. So what if I don’t catch the bottom, which is exactly what your strategy sounds like to me. That’s a big fail.
There has not been a week, over the last 8 weeks, I have not purchased stocks. I’ve made a few moves selling too, based on released information and general market conditions (my gut). I’ve averaged my core positions down and in 2, 3, 4 years there will be 20-40% average gains. It’s not even true risk.
I’m not really that smart, and I can see it clearly. It’s factual. It’s history.
I’m witnessing people get so tired of being pent up from COVID-19. My family for instance. We resumed letting our children play with other kids in the neighborhood. We are probably going to end up with it just like most everyone else is. Or perhaps we’ve already had it? People are starting to not give a damn because quality of life is in the toilet.
This world will resume normal lifestyle, and we won’t be zooming all our business. We yearn for P2P interaction, because that’s how we are wired.
I’m WITNESSING this. All over. I speak to people all over America on a daily basis. I hear the same message.
Good luck with your defensive play. I’m sure it will work in line with what you expect.
Can you explain what you think a value stock is and how you value it?
As for the rest of it, you’re right, I am defensive at the moment, it’s the time to be so. It’s nowhere near the time to take on risk, which I rarely do anyway, that’s for poor gamblers.
Also, I’ve no idea what time horizon means. I aim to make a return on my money. Over the last twenty five years I mostly aim to double whatever I put in as quickly as possible. When I do appraisals I account for 25% margin which is conservative, if I can wash my face at that it’s a goer.
I don’t throw money around like a drunk sailor, I stick to what I know and what I have an edge at.
I’m also a gambler. I punt horses, football,and golf. Gambling has taught me probability, research and most importantly value. I’m very interested in how you perceive how the market is littered with value stocks. The very notion is ridiculous to me.
You could have googled it but I’ll do that for you:
Other factors for me are as much or more important than fundamentals. MOAT, market position, strategic/M&A direction and activity, abused and oversold, etc etc.
Yes, the market is littered with them. I’m not going to name them because we obviously will have different opinions because our philosophies are different.
Purely your opinion. I’m on the offensive. The time to be defensive was when we crashed to DOW 18K. I was defensive then. Not now. Now I’m not stupid, and I’ve got some hedges in place, but to be clear, I’m on the offensive.
Try to interpret what I’m saying at least a little bit. So you aim for a return of 25% annual? Sounds good, about the same for me in all markets.
I’m up 10% YTD in this “blood bath.” So if I had been following your method would I be better off?
AND, my most bullish positions will be 2021+ plays. So they don’t even factor into my gains at this time. They’re flat to down.
Cool! I do the same thing.
You’re going to think this is ridiculous, and you can believe me or not, I really don’t care. I’ve been married for 13 years, and when I married my wife I had a pretty serious gambling habit. My wife was worried, because she’s very conservative. However, she really couldn’t complain because we could always afford a better quality of life because of it. Two children later and an advancing career, I didn’t have the time to devote to it. Long story short, I still do a little, but most it’s actually betting on the golf course with my own game. So, 13 years ago I told my wife I’ll never pay for any of my clothing because of my gambling. To this date, 13 years, I’ve never bought an article of clothing. It’s a funny little thing between my wife and I. I’m a senior manager for a S&P 500 company, so It’s necessary I have a nice wardrobe.
I say all of this to tell you I don’t take a bad bet. Same thing with my investments. I’m sorry if you can’t understand how value currently exists in the securities markets. Of course you believe this, you’re a bear.
I’ve got a few picks right now that I’m so damn bullish on it would make your head explode. I’m sorry you are in your mental jail and can’t see it. That sucks!
Good luck though. Peter Shiff agrees with your train of thought. 
ok, that pretty much confirms where you are coming from. I’m out. I wish you luck though.
I’m really confused and frustrated with the market- the global economy is more or less at a standstill yet most stocks still seem very overvalued
Have you heard of the investED podcast, it’s very good and aligns with your philosophy
Anna, it’s great you’re educating yourself about investing but at your age don’t let knowledge trip you up. Any spare cash you have earmarked for investing, just put it in Tesla.
IronOne, I’m guessing your company is a materials company, am I close?
Btw, several times I’ve said to my oldest son “Bud, if I take a bet I’ve already won it. You should know that by now”.
Let’s hear 'em!
If I haven’t been clear, I’m an ultra bull on TSLA, semiconductors and cyber security.
Ha! How much money do you think I have 
I’m young and know nothing about investing so pardon my asking, but is this:
serious?
I will not waste my time responding to one of your posts again. I literally responded to every one of your questions, and this is your response? Lazy.
Good luck to you too.
The market seems quite dislocated, but is it really? The media will surely make it seem like it is. Dow is down 20% and S&P 12%. Obviously it was much worse before the rally. We’ve made it through the shock phase of the Coronavirus. That drove us to bottoms. Good news is on the horizon. I do think volatility continues through summer, with a lot of sideways price action. Lows are in. Deals are out there. More deals will present themselves, as always.
Yeah I’ve watched their stuff. What’s funny is, the more of these podcasts and investor education channels you watch, the more you realize it’s just Buffett and Munger ideologies.
(Calculated) Risk Tier: the right airlines/aerospace and affiliates, cruise lines, casino/hotel
Undervalued: the right banks, railroads, construction related material suppliers, big oil, AT&T, Disney, goes on forever
Dividend: Telecommunication, big oil, banks, 3M?, etc
I’m not a short term investor. Keep that in mind. Disney below 100? Sign me up. AT&T below 29? Yep.
Last I heard, you were in HS so you probably don’t have any for investing but if you do, and it’s only 750 bucks, that’s enough for one share of TSLA.
