[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
Voluntary participation? Participate or starve is the reality of any system but you guys like to ignore reality when you build your fantasy systems.[/quote]
Participate or starve is exactly right. There are many choices that must be made in the interim to best satisfy those needs. That is the essence of economics.
The food fairy can’t just wave her magic wand over a pile of money to produce it. Someone, somewhere has to start making choices.
[quote]orion wrote:
pat wrote:
orion wrote:
You will experience massive inflation, upside down mortgages and a recession in the next 5 years.
Inflation yes, massive, no. Inflation in this case is a good thing, it is part of the market correction.
That will make it much easier for the Chinese to close the gap.
If you are in your early forties you will see the Chinese running circles around the American economy.
Oooops, they are already doing that.
LOL! Whatever. They aren’t even close. Nobody is. The people who hate the devalued dollar the most is the Chinese, it makes the garbage they produce more expensive to export and more expensive for us to buy. They only way they can stay competitive is to devalue the yuan manually.
And again. Asia does not need you to buy you anything, especially if you are no longer able to pay. Why anyone even thinks other people need him to consume when he does not offer anything in return is beyond me.
Plus, they have lower wages, less regulations and a booming economy.
STAY competitive? Visit a WalMart.
It all comes down to this:
Saving builds wealth, consuming, um, consumes it.
Consumption builds economies, saving kills them.
Dangerous Keynesian BS which got you in this mess. The only thing that can make a economy grow long term is a rise in capital goods. They can only be bought from money not consumed.
Now the US might lend money to build capital goods but you do not do that, you borrow to consume which is fundamentally different because afterwards the money is gone.
To think that the money creation fairy can change that was and always will be dangerous wishful thinking.
30 years of inflating the money supply, manipulating statistics and all the little recessions that avoided will come down like Thor’s hammer.
If I were you I would not hope for a soft landing.
I would buy real estate (should be cheap now) at fixed interest rates, and get the rest of my money out of the dollar.
When you need 100$ to buy a loaf of bread you should be able to pay back your loans easily.
I used to pay 2000 lira for a cup of coffee. It really wasn’t that expensive. Inflation is a good cure for cleaning out old debts. I really don’t see the big doom and gloom bullshit. The economy cycles, that is natural. It is supposed to. But no matter what people always claim the sky is falling when a recession hits, when all that is really happening is a correction. Real estate was ridiculous and couple that with lenders giving terrible loans to people with terrible credit and you are setting yourself up for failure. It will correct, it will stabilize and the economy will pick back up.
Real Estate prices will drop and all that are getting foreclosed will be. Then with a little inflation thrown in the mix. Prices will be once again reasonable and people will start buying. Considering how fast the drop has occurred I really don’t see the recession lasting that long.
First of all you are contradicting yourself.
Yes recessions are a normal part of the cycle.
No, inflation is not normal and was used since the early eighties to avoid any recession so no correction occurred.
First the surplus money went into the Internet bubble than into the housing bubble, and there is of course all the money that went overseas.
All the little recessions that did not happen must happen so be ready for a giant one.
If you look at the housing bubble and the debts overseas the inflation cannot be small it practically must be ginormous if all those dollars come home.
In your case I would figure out if you are a Keynesian or an Austrian, i.e classic economist because you have the tendency to combine elements of both that are only connected trough wishful thinking.
[/quote]
Hey, if you want to panic and jump out of a window be my guest. I just don’t see the big deal. People always panic when the economy takes a down turn. All the major indicators are mostly stable. I am not worrying myself.
[quote]orion wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
orion wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
I don’t understand what you guys are so upset about. When private bankers have control you say it should be government. When government has control you say it should be private.
When a combination of government and private entities has control you spin around and around. It is funny to see.
It is because you do not understand that it is not about “private” vs “public”, but about competitive systems with voluntary participation vs coercive monopolies which is very Bill Maheresque of you.
Voluntary participation? Participate or starve is the reality of any system but you guys like to ignore reality when you build your fantasy systems.
That is not the systems fault.
Blame God or the universe.
But, while you can choose with whom you do business with, governments, or government backed monopolies,like the Fed, always use force to make people comply.
You are using the standard socialist argument that the necessity to produce to survive (which would also exist where you the only person left on earth with no system whatsoever) is the same and even justifies forcing someone at gunpoint to do your bidding.
[/quote]
There you go again.
The Federal Reserve is not pointing a gun at me making me participate in anything. I am free to get up and leave, I am free to do many things outside of their purview.
[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
The Federal Reserve is not pointing a gun at me making me participate in anything. I am free to get up and leave, I am free to do many things outside of their purview.[/quote]
Zap, the Fed controls monetary policy. You cannot participate in a voluntary exchange with any other money than the stuff with the words “Federal Reserve Note” on it. You will be met with armed resistance if you try.
[quote]LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
The Federal Reserve is not pointing a gun at me making me participate in anything. I am free to get up and leave, I am free to do many things outside of their purview.
Zap, the Fed controls monetary policy. You cannot participate in a voluntary exchange with any other money than the stuff with the words “Federal Reserve Note” on it. You will be met with armed resistance if you try.[/quote]
I can trade wheat for a tractor. I can move to another country. I can horde gold. It is only when I start selling phony dollars that they get upset.
[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
It is only when I start selling phony dollars that they get upset. [/quote]
No, you’re mistaken. A voluntary transaction is exactly that. The only time it is illegal is if one tries to pass off counterfeited money as “Federal Reserve Notes”. Otherwise, it is a different monetary unit with a different perceived value – e.g., the dollar v. Euro. Do you think I should be able to purchase goods in Euros if I could find someone willing to take them?
Monetary exchange is the same as your analogy to trading. The only difference is that you do not require a double coincidence of wants.
[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
orion wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
orion wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
I don’t understand what you guys are so upset about. When private bankers have control you say it should be government. When government has control you say it should be private.
When a combination of government and private entities has control you spin around and around. It is funny to see.
It is because you do not understand that it is not about “private” vs “public”, but about competitive systems with voluntary participation vs coercive monopolies which is very Bill Maheresque of you.
Voluntary participation? Participate or starve is the reality of any system but you guys like to ignore reality when you build your fantasy systems.
That is not the systems fault.
Blame God or the universe.
But, while you can choose with whom you do business with, governments, or government backed monopolies,like the Fed, always use force to make people comply.
You are using the standard socialist argument that the necessity to produce to survive (which would also exist where you the only person left on earth with no system whatsoever) is the same and even justifies forcing someone at gunpoint to do your bidding.
There you go again.
The Federal Reserve is not pointing a gun at me making me participate in anything. I am free to get up and leave, I am free to do many things outside of their purview.[/quote]
Legally, you have to take their money.
That you are free to break the law is true, but if you publicly do so you end up in a cage.
[quote]pat wrote:
Hey, if you want to panic and jump out of a window be my guest. I just don’t see the big deal. People always panic when the economy takes a down turn. All the major indicators are mostly stable. I am not worrying myself.[/quote]
I wonder what economic indicators that would be.
The amount of tinkering with basic indicators in the US is astounding to say the least. You do not even know what is true in terms of statistics.
Then, why would I panic if I most likely would profit from such a scenario?
The big deal for me is that I will witness the collapse of a giant in the next years.
It will be interesting to see how America reacts when all the promises of social security cannot be kept and it is confronted with mass poverty and a hyper inflation.
If it gets really interesting Europe will even join the US.
Interesting times, indeed.
[quote]orion wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
orion wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
orion wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
I don’t understand what you guys are so upset about. When private bankers have control you say it should be government. When government has control you say it should be private.
When a combination of government and private entities has control you spin around and around. It is funny to see.
It is because you do not understand that it is not about “private” vs “public”, but about competitive systems with voluntary participation vs coercive monopolies which is very Bill Maheresque of you.
Voluntary participation? Participate or starve is the reality of any system but you guys like to ignore reality when you build your fantasy systems.
That is not the systems fault.
Blame God or the universe.
But, while you can choose with whom you do business with, governments, or government backed monopolies,like the Fed, always use force to make people comply.
You are using the standard socialist argument that the necessity to produce to survive (which would also exist where you the only person left on earth with no system whatsoever) is the same and even justifies forcing someone at gunpoint to do your bidding.
There you go again.
The Federal Reserve is not pointing a gun at me making me participate in anything. I am free to get up and leave, I am free to do many things outside of their purview.
Legally, you have to take their money.
That you are free to break the law is true, but if you publicly do so you end up in a cage.
[/quote]
Only to pay a debt. I do not have to let them incur a debt. I don’t have to sell you anything. I can work for food if I want. I can trade my sneakers for your sandwich.
If I want to deal exclusively in Euros I can set up an overseas corporation to do so.
[quote]orion wrote:
pat wrote:
Hey, if you want to panic and jump out of a window be my guest. I just don’t see the big deal. People always panic when the economy takes a down turn. All the major indicators are mostly stable. I am not worrying myself.
I wonder what economic indicators that would be.
The amount of tinkering with basic indicators in the US is astounding to say the least. You do not even know what is true in terms of statistics.
Then, why would I panic if I most likely would profit from such a scenario?
The big deal for me is that I will witness the collapse of a giant in the next years.
It will be interesting to see how America reacts when all the promises of social security cannot be kept and it is confronted with mass poverty and a hyper inflation.
If it gets really interesting Europe will even join the US.
Interesting times, indeed.
[/quote]
When the US government can’t pay all the interest and collective obligations (SS and Medicare) due from tax revenues, either taxes must rise or debt (money) has to be created. Either scenario is bad news. The temptation would be to paper over the debt, accelerating inflation. In either case, the long term outlook for most Americans is poor. Higher taxes or inflation reduce the level of innovation and capital formation. Social Security, in effect, was the older generation(s) plunder the young, so the old people could have a higher standard of living. Deficit spending was ‘eating the seed corn’.
We are long-term screwed; severe wage and price controls, a police state to enforce those, with eventual revolution and repudiation of debt…not good.
[quote]Headhunter wrote:
orion wrote:
pat wrote:
Hey, if you want to panic and jump out of a window be my guest. I just don’t see the big deal. People always panic when the economy takes a down turn. All the major indicators are mostly stable. I am not worrying myself.
I wonder what economic indicators that would be.
The amount of tinkering with basic indicators in the US is astounding to say the least. You do not even know what is true in terms of statistics.
Then, why would I panic if I most likely would profit from such a scenario?
The big deal for me is that I will witness the collapse of a giant in the next years.
It will be interesting to see how America reacts when all the promises of social security cannot be kept and it is confronted with mass poverty and a hyper inflation.
If it gets really interesting Europe will even join the US.
Interesting times, indeed.
When the US government can’t pay all the interest and collective obligations (SS and Medicare) due from tax revenues, either taxes must rise or debt (money) has to be created. Either scenario is bad news. The temptation would be to paper over the debt, accelerating inflation. In either case, the long term outlook for most Americans is poor. Higher taxes or inflation reduce the level of innovation and capital formation. Social Security, in effect, was the older generation(s) plunder the young, so the old people could have a higher standard of living. Deficit spending was ‘eating the seed corn’.
We are long-term screwed; severe wage and price controls, a police state to enforce those, with eventual revolution and repudiation of debt…not good.
[/quote]
I think the argument that you can get rid of social security obligations via inflation holds no water.
The US cannot even get effectively of real debt via inflation because most of it is short term debt that is refinanced over and over again. That requires a creditor though and enables them to change their mind very quickly.
Social security however is different. Those 50 trillion in obligations cannot simply be inflated away because people actually count on that they will get a pension and medical aid when they retire.
Inflating those obligations away meant mass starvation.
[quote]orion wrote:
Headhunter wrote:
orion wrote:
pat wrote:
Hey, if you want to panic and jump out of a window be my guest. I just don’t see the big deal. People always panic when the economy takes a down turn. All the major indicators are mostly stable. I am not worrying myself.
I wonder what economic indicators that would be.
The amount of tinkering with basic indicators in the US is astounding to say the least. You do not even know what is true in terms of statistics.
Then, why would I panic if I most likely would profit from such a scenario?
The big deal for me is that I will witness the collapse of a giant in the next years.
It will be interesting to see how America reacts when all the promises of social security cannot be kept and it is confronted with mass poverty and a hyper inflation.
If it gets really interesting Europe will even join the US.
Interesting times, indeed.
When the US government can’t pay all the interest and collective obligations (SS and Medicare) due from tax revenues, either taxes must rise or debt (money) has to be created. Either scenario is bad news. The temptation would be to paper over the debt, accelerating inflation. In either case, the long term outlook for most Americans is poor. Higher taxes or inflation reduce the level of innovation and capital formation. Social Security, in effect, was the older generation(s) plunder the young, so the old people could have a higher standard of living. Deficit spending was ‘eating the seed corn’.
We are long-term screwed; severe wage and price controls, a police state to enforce those, with eventual revolution and repudiation of debt…not good.
I think the argument that you can get rid of social security obligations via inflation holds no water.
The US cannot even get effectively of real debt via inflation because most of it is short term debt that is refinanced over and over again. That requires a creditor though and enables them to change their mind very quickly.
Social security however is different. Those 50 trillion in obligations cannot simply be inflated away because people actually count on that they will get a pension and medical aid when they retire.
Inflating those obligations away meant mass starvation.
[/quote]
What you said is precisely the reason why government must become more powerful — people will always seek to escape their obligations, especially if they weren’t the ones who incurred them.