The Economy Thread

[quote]orion wrote:
Not really.

Massive inflation, massive deflation, the end result looks just about the same.

[/quote]

We will just have to agree to disagree. At least in inflation or massive inflation I can take my worthless dollars and pay off debt. “Here are $100,000 near worthless pieces of green paper. Now give me my deed.”

In deflation everything is dirt cheap but it does not matter, as nobody has any money anyway. Got gold? Who gives a shit. All asset classes decline in a deflationary cycle. Ironically, hard paper currency may be the best thing to hold in such a scenario.

[quote]JEATON wrote:

[quote]orion wrote:
Not really.

Massive inflation, massive deflation, the end result looks just about the same.

[/quote]

We will just have to agree to disagree. At least in inflation or massive inflation I can take my worthless dollars and pay off debt. “Here are $100,000 near worthless pieces of green paper. Now give me my deed.”

In deflation everything is dirt cheap but it does not matter, as nobody has any money anyway. Got gold? Who gives a shit. All asset classes decline in a deflationary cycle. Ironically, hard paper currency may be the best thing to hold in such a scenario.
[/quote]

The thing is , I think the key to the modern economy is credit, the relationship between lender and lendee.

If one side of the lenders or lendees in the aggregate cannot hold up their end of the bargain it is officially over.

edited

[quote]JEATON wrote:

[quote]orion wrote:
Not really.

Massive inflation, massive deflation, the end result looks just about the same.

[/quote]

We will just have to agree to disagree. At least in inflation or massive inflation I can take my worthless dollars and pay off debt. “Here are $100,000 near worthless pieces of green paper. Now give me my deed.”

In deflation everything is dirt cheap but it does not matter, as nobody has any money anyway. Got gold? Who gives a shit. All asset classes decline in a deflationary cycle. Ironically, hard paper currency may be the best thing to hold in such a scenario.
[/quote]

BTW, did you ever read the stories about people trying to pay back their debt with then worthless greenbacks?

Lenders were jumping out of windows, dashing out of back doors, just so that they would not have to accept that worthless junk.

Of course, war bonds were paid back in full (meaning, gold) and just before they were, agents were traveling the country, buying them for cent on the dollar.

Its was a conspiracy, I kid you not.

“The seven banks that founded Bankia be left out of the shareholders of the entity and the State will be made with one hundred percent of the group’s parent, Bank Savings Financial (BFA), the latter having a negative value of 13.635 million euros According to the assessment commissioned by the state.” The main bank in Spain, now owned by the gov’t, is worth NEGATIVE 13 billion Euros.

"Retailer Purchasing Falls at Record Rate in France

The overall sales performance over the second quarter has been the weakest since the survey began in 2004, and it was therefore no surprise to see accelerated falls in both purchasing and employment during June as retailers went into retrenchment mode."

“Italy Remains a Disaster Zone”

Dis ist das ende…das ende…

[quote]666Rich wrote:

[quote]Gettnitdone wrote:
Y’all need to realise that the Fed saved the god-damn U.S economy post-GFC. There was absolutely no liquidity in the market after Lehman Bros. and Wall Street started having a myocardial infraction. Wholesale market were drier than the Sahara desert. The Fed’s first rounds of QE did a lot from a technical stand point in that they lowered rates even further (essentially 0) but also from a confidence stand point. Believe it all not investors actually like it when Bernanke goes up there and says he’s going to do something.

Operation Twist last year was a success. I just heard they’ve also done a bit more this year as well. What they’re doing is basically flattening the yield curve to lower the cost of capital so firms can start investing again. You won’t hear that from Rick Santelli or any other miseducated ‘expert’ on TV.

I’m not going to spend time explaining monetary policy or fiscal policy but just emphasize that leverage is essential in growth. Strong credit markets fuel economic growth.

On a final note, the economy is only shit compared to the period 2001-2007 where it was deceivingly good because of mispriced credit. Ironically, easy money was what brought down Wall Street (because they couldn’t properly price it) but cheap money is what will get the U.S out of its funk. Argue about fiscal policy all you want (and I personally think the government should lower its deficit) but have knowledge before you start evaluating the Fed and monetary policy.

[/quote]

Investors like when bernanke says hes going to do something because the markets respond to that liquidity or mention of it. The gains are illusory and people can capitalize on it while value remains stagnant.

The Fed also created a huge problem with letting one bank fail and then rescuing others. This creates uncertainty which no market likes. Furthermore, I now believe the too big to fail rescue scenario is decided arbitrarily by the Treasury Secretary. Sounds very nepotistic to me, and a creator of future uncertainty.

The lender of last resort should be conditional useage if and only if a bank has held a proper amount of reserves (of which they have been allowed to hold far less than they should).

People DO have varying views of Monetary policy, but the political handcuffs on the Fed also influence it. The dual mandate is bullshit fairly opposed. I think they would be alot better off for growth sticking to inflation targeting only.

Inflation WILL come back to bite us in the ass.
[/quote]

Extraordinary circumstances call for extraordinary measures.

I don’t necessarily have a major issue with too big too fail because I understand the rational for it at the time. However, the Treasury and Federal Reserve have vehemently stated there is no more too big too fail.

The nature of the credit derivatives market, which was at the heart of of the crisis means a lot of financial institutions are subject to counterparty risk. One bank’s failure means the offsetting positions on its transactions are worthless and you get the domino effect we saw. AIG was at the heart of many derivative transaction networks and needed to stay alive. Of course now derivatives associations have strengthened their markets by infusing more standardization and collateralization policies.

What makes you say the Fed is politically influenced?

[quote]orion wrote:

[quote]JEATON wrote:

[quote]orion wrote:
Not really.

Massive inflation, massive deflation, the end result looks just about the same.

[/quote]

We will just have to agree to disagree. At least in inflation or massive inflation I can take my worthless dollars and pay off debt. “Here are $100,000 near worthless pieces of green paper. Now give me my deed.”

In deflation everything is dirt cheap but it does not matter, as nobody has any money anyway. Got gold? Who gives a shit. All asset classes decline in a deflationary cycle. Ironically, hard paper currency may be the best thing to hold in such a scenario.
[/quote]

BTW, did you ever read the stories about people trying to pay back their debt with then worthless greenbacks?

Lenders were jumping out of windows, dashing out of back doors, just so that they would not have to accept that worthless junk.

Of course, war bonds were paid back in full (meaning, gold) and just before they were, agents were traveling the country, buying them for cent on the dollar.

Its was a conspiracy, I kid you not. [/quote]

I am not sure what period you are referring too. During the last period of deflation, in the 1930’s, I have no knowledge of such happening. Anyone with dollars would have no trouble finding someone to take them off their hands. Are you referring to an earlier period?

[quote]JEATON wrote:

[quote]orion wrote:

[quote]JEATON wrote:

[quote]orion wrote:
Not really.

Massive inflation, massive deflation, the end result looks just about the same.

[/quote]

We will just have to agree to disagree. At least in inflation or massive inflation I can take my worthless dollars and pay off debt. “Here are $100,000 near worthless pieces of green paper. Now give me my deed.”

In deflation everything is dirt cheap but it does not matter, as nobody has any money anyway. Got gold? Who gives a shit. All asset classes decline in a deflationary cycle. Ironically, hard paper currency may be the best thing to hold in such a scenario.
[/quote]

BTW, did you ever read the stories about people trying to pay back their debt with then worthless greenbacks?

Lenders were jumping out of windows, dashing out of back doors, just so that they would not have to accept that worthless junk.

Of course, war bonds were paid back in full (meaning, gold) and just before they were, agents were traveling the country, buying them for cent on the dollar.

Its was a conspiracy, I kid you not. [/quote]

I am not sure what period you are referring too. During the last period of deflation, in the 1930’s, I have no knowledge of such happening. Anyone with dollars would have no trouble finding someone to take them off their hands. Are you referring to an earlier period?
[/quote]

1866

[quote]orion wrote:

[quote]JEATON wrote:

[quote]orion wrote:

[quote]JEATON wrote:

[quote]orion wrote:
Not really.

Massive inflation, massive deflation, the end result looks just about the same.

[/quote]

We will just have to agree to disagree. At least in inflation or massive inflation I can take my worthless dollars and pay off debt. “Here are $100,000 near worthless pieces of green paper. Now give me my deed.”

In deflation everything is dirt cheap but it does not matter, as nobody has any money anyway. Got gold? Who gives a shit. All asset classes decline in a deflationary cycle. Ironically, hard paper currency may be the best thing to hold in such a scenario.
[/quote]

BTW, did you ever read the stories about people trying to pay back their debt with then worthless greenbacks?

Lenders were jumping out of windows, dashing out of back doors, just so that they would not have to accept that worthless junk.

Of course, war bonds were paid back in full (meaning, gold) and just before they were, agents were traveling the country, buying them for cent on the dollar.

Its was a conspiracy, I kid you not. [/quote]

I am not sure what period you are referring too. During the last period of deflation, in the 1930’s, I have no knowledge of such happening. Anyone with dollars would have no trouble finding someone to take them off their hands. Are you referring to an earlier period?
[/quote]

1866[/quote]
Ahh, hyperinflation, not deflation. Stay on topic Barvarian Jerry.

Jeaton give us some stock tips. What are you bullish on right now?

[quote]Gettnitdone wrote:
Jeaton give us some stock tips. What are you bullish on right now?[/quote]

I cannot see why anyone would want stock tips from me. I will say that the one person on this board that I would love to have a day with to pick his mind is Jewbacca. That is a man who I am sure could give advice worth acting on.

For what it is worth, I will share the following…

I do not trade individual stocks. I am only interested in indexes. For the most part, I only trade options.

I have been shorting the S&P 500 with put options on the SPY since the first of April. At the same time I went long the US dollar via the DXY. I also began shorting gold via DZZ which is a double inverse ETF.

The S&P short has been very good. The dollar long has been decent. The gold short has been mostly neutral, ie sideways. I use tight stops. If taken out, I reevaluate chose a point of reentry, and get back in.

The move of yesterday was anticipated. Today’s was not. As it stands I see much more downside potential. I will see how the markets react on Monday and go from there.

[quote]JEATON wrote:

[quote]Gettnitdone wrote:
Jeaton give us some stock tips. What are you bullish on right now?[/quote]

I cannot see why anyone would want stock tips from me. I will say that the one person on this board that I would love to have a day with to pick his mind is Jewbacca. That is a man who I am sure could give advice worth acting on.

For what it is worth, I will share the following…

I do not trade individual stocks. I am only interested in indexes. For the most part, I only trade options.

I have been shorting the S&P 500 with put options on the SPY since the first of April. At the same time I went long the US dollar via the DXY. I also began shorting gold via DZZ which is a double inverse ETF.

The S&P short has been very good. The dollar long has been decent. The gold short has been mostly neutral, ie sideways. I use tight stops. If taken out, I reevaluate chose a point of reentry, and get back in.

The move of yesterday was anticipated. Today’s was not. As it stands I see much more downside potential. I will see how the markets react on Monday and go from there.
[/quote]

Interesting. Only experience I’ve had with indexes has been doing some trial CFD trading. Are you one of those traders that uses complex options arbitrage strategies?

[quote]Gettnitdone wrote:
Interesting. Only experience I’ve had with indexes has been doing some trial CFD trading. Are you one of those traders that uses complex options arbitrage strategies?
[/quote]

Hardly. I am little more than a glorified used car salesman who has a fascination with the equities markets. I basically am a chartist, who uses Fibonacci ratios and Elliot wave theory to pick long term direction. I am not a day trader. Once I feel that I have a handle on the overall direction I simply pick a vehicle that is well suited and then pull up option charts to determine a time frame and entry point.

If you have an interest, I suggest you take a look at http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/

I use a few services but the above is free and to be honest, one of the very best as far as performance records.

I do my own charting but often defer to professionals if they present a compelling case.

Yeah, not a big fan of technical analysis, maybe because I’m a finance student who’s been hammered with academic literature making cases for efficient market forms.

[quote]JEATON wrote:

[quote]Gettnitdone wrote:
Interesting. Only experience I’ve had with indexes has been doing some trial CFD trading. Are you one of those traders that uses complex options arbitrage strategies?
[/quote]

Hardly. I am little more than a glorified used car salesman who has a fascination with the equities markets. I basically am a chartist, who uses Fibonacci ratios and Elliot wave theory to pick long term direction. I am not a day trader. Once I feel that I have a handle on the overall direction I simply pick a vehicle that is well suited and then pull up option charts to determine a time frame and entry point.

If you have an interest, I suggest you take a look at http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/

I use a few services but the above is free and to be honest, one of the very best as far as performance records.

I do my own charting but often defer to professionals if they present a compelling case.

[/quote]

I forgot who said it, but:

Wall Street, the only place people who ride in limo’s to work deffer to people who ride the subway to work.

Not that you shouldn’t, it just always cracked me up

Big take away:

[quote] article said:
?What’s really undermining consumer progress on financial security are stagnant wages,? said Greg McBride, Bankrate?s senior financial analyst. ?If incomes aren?t growing it?s difficult for people to make headway on debt and savings.?

Indeed, the U.S. Commerce Department reported in June that consumer spending was unchanged and wages were essentially flat in May.
[/quote]

Seems the American people feel they can run their households like the government runs its.

Lets look at th fact pattern:

  1. Americans have too much debt & not enough savings
  2. Wages are flat

And what is people’s great idea? To keep spending the same as got you into the mess in the first place.

Guess what, those evil corporations aren’t going to hand you free money, no matter how much you cry about it, it isn’t going to happen. People need to have some personal accountablity and stop spending some much money on shit they don’t need.

“We buy things we don’t need, with money we don’t have to impress people we don’t like” - Tyler Durden

  1. Deflation is scary, but we are staring down a very uncomfortable inflation if we don’t make some hard choices. Of the debt being issued by the US, the majority of it is being purchased by the Fed, not other central banks or private purchasers. At some point, the Fed will have to unwind these holdings - and therefore monetize them - into the economy. When that happens, there is going to be massive inflationary pressure.

  2. There is a group of bi-partisan ex-politicians who are still carrying the flag for Bowles Simpson. Let’s hope their efforts change the conversation - dealing with the debt crisis is certainly not getting any play from the current president, who thinks there is only one problem with our entitlements: they are currently underfunded.

  3. We will see more cities declare bankruptcy and more draconian spending cuts at the state level by governors of both parties.