I think the author is jumping a little ahead. I don’t think a military action is necessarily war. Though war may be inevitable, at this point we just want to send the message that atrocities committed by Assad will no longer go unpunished.
That could lead to full scale war and a plan should already exist that ensures victory and prevents what occurred in Iraq.
“We assess that Syria has not declared all the elements of its chemical weapons program to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). Despite the creation of a specialized team and months of work by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) to address gaps and inconsistencies in Syria’s declaration, numerous issues remain unresolved. Moreover, we continue to judge that the Syrian regime has used chemicals as a means of warfare since accession to the CWC in 2013. The OPCW Fact-Finding Mission has concluded that chlorine had been used on Syrian opposition forces in multiple incidents in 2014 and 2015. Helicopters — which only the Syrian regime possesses — were used in several of these attacks.”
Sure, except this last time, the country came unglued by civil war because of it.
What country? Syria is a very recent invention, created when the French haphazardly grouped together territories that ended up under French Mandate rule. This heterogeneous grouping of religions and ethnicities was (is) beset by almost constant inter religious strife - if it weren’t for Assad Sr. and his ruthless iron grip, Syria would have fallen apart much sooner .
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Sigh… Yes the haphazardly thrown together country known as Syria before the Arab Spring and resulting civil war tore it apart. That’s the Syria I am talking about. The country identified as Syria by most globes in Public Schools who have not been updated since 2013.
I know Syria was a bunch of lumped together regions as are most ME countries. I know the demographic content is hopelessly diverse and some of it is considered useless territory. I know the goals of the various power entities in the territory formally known as Syria are a veritable bag of Skittles.
I know there is no easy solution and war guarantees nothing and there may not be a war and some sort of coercive diplomacy may be the only key, or that they are just going to eat each other like rats in a cage until there’s nothing left.
If you wonder what I mean by Syria, then wonder no more. As formally stated, when I speak of Syria, I mean the region political maps acknowledged as Syria up until the Arab Spring and subsequent civil war. This includes the various rebel groups, Hezbollah, Iran, Russia/ Assad held territories, the ISIS ‘caliphate’, Kurds, and anybody I may have missed existing in those previously drawn political borders.
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I have such a long way to go in understanding the history there. @loppar, thank you. This is good for me. @NickViar, I hope you know I was teasing you. That was very, very funny.
What do you think of the pipeline theory that has been floating around for a few years now? Not sure if it’s just conspiracy/speculation but it would explain the significance to Russia.
Specifically it spells out that the current geography allows for an Iran/Iraq/Syria pipeline to the Mediterranean vs a Qatar/Arabian pipeline up through Syria and Turkey into Europe. This would explain a broader strategy for Russia in the Eastern European sphere.
I don’t think it’s very far fetched - it seems probable enough. If Iran manages to keep the land bridge to the Mediterranean through Kurdish territory open, it will have huge geopolitical ramifications.
Iranians are very smart, even the creeps in power, unlike the ruling elites in other Gulf states.
They saw what Russia does in Europe and understood the lesson - if you efficiently and cheaply deliver gas to one’s doorstep, they’ll let you get away with a lot of bad stuff.
So if they can deliver gas practically to EU’s backyard - it’s 100 miles as the crow flies from Alawite Latakia on the Syrian coast to Cyprus which is part of the EU - it means you have additional wiggle room in international relationships and can create an de facto gas monopoly at least several EU states. And Russia has repeatedly shown that this energy dependence dictates foreign policy - the most vocal opponents of Russia sanctions in Europe are those countries that benefit the most from cheap Russian gas.
If Iran can replicate such a scenario…well, it will be very interesting. Russians will definitely jump on board because they’ve perfected the art of economic blackmail…
Russians and Iranians pretty much hate each other, it’s just that they’re allies out of necessity - no one else was available for both parties vis-a-vis the ME theater.
Once again, it’s not “rats in a cage”. All sides in the conflict operate on very logical assumptions.
These assumptions may be deeply morally and humanely reprehensible to Westerners, but in their mindset all actions make perfect sense.
It would be a mistake to consider them irrational lunatics at each other throats for no logical reason.
That’s why Bashar al-Assad won’t wrap himself in one of those white funeral shrouds and blow himself up attacking Western targets. He knows that if his side loses - and that means if Russians cut a deal, and they have offered such deals several times where they leave Assad hung out to dry - it’s at best a noose or a bullet or a metal rod up his ass like Qaddafi. And not just for him, but for his family, clan, tribe and Alawites in general.
You could say that after the Alawites punched well above their weight for several decades in Syria thanks to the brutal efforts of Assad Sr. things are returning to the old “normal”.
Oh. I can’t say I’m not disappointed; I was really looking forward to taking my spot on the T-Nation Security Council.
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I meant it as an analogy, perhaps a poor one, but I did not intend that all Syrians are ‘rats’.
Quite the opposite, I have deep sympathy for the Syrian people. Those who are being victimized by the various elements within the former political boundaries of Syria.